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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

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  #1301 (permalink)
 Daytrader999 
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lancelottrader View Post
I hear you..On NQ at least, I seem to do better on the days where it is moving down. When it goes up, often it just stays up and bounces around a little.

That's exactly the problem...and my psychological issue when I take long trades which sometimes seem to last forever and keep moving back and forth.

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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 kirkvan 
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MrTrader View Post
Thanks!
BTW, what screen recorder would you recommend?

The free Vimeo Screen Recorder is my current favorite. This platform didn't let me include the link but a Google search will easily find it.

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  #1303 (permalink)
IaskQs
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lancelottrader View Post
I really don't like days like today. My feeling is that the market has been subdued, as far as volatility the last two days because of Easter this weekend. I took two trades only. Just waited until it looked like price would move down and did some small 25 tick scalps when it bounced up off of some small support areas.
So, basically, just wanted to only take longs and wait for support breakout fails.

Just wanted to let you know that your webinar has begun to really sink into my brain. Specifically, the idea of looking for an area where there is no significant support or resistance. I did that today (paper trading because I'm still solidifying my strategy) and ended up with my biggest NQ trade to date: I took 35.75 points today going long. I'm not using your strat exactly (I'm using 2m or 5m bars) but I'm learning how to incorporate the general ideas you presented.

I know this may be elementary for more experienced traders, but seeing price move freely in this area was an eye opener for me.

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 lancelottrader 
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IaskQs View Post
Just wanted to let you know that your webinar has begun to really sink into my brain. Specifically, the idea of looking for an area where there is no significant support or resistance. I did that today (paper trading because I'm still solidifying my strategy) and ended up with my biggest NQ trade to date: I took 35.75 points today going long. I'm not using your strat exactly (I'm using 2m or 5m bars) but I'm learning how to incorporate the general ideas you presented.

I know this may be elementary for more experienced traders, but seeing price move freely in this area was an eye opener for me.

Good to hear. Yes, in NQ at least, when there is strong order flow..in the absence of real S/R, price can just keep going..

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 lancelottrader 
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Price action on NQ so far this morning has been very difficult. Very hard to read.

Failure is not an option
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 Daytrader999 
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lancelottrader View Post
Price action on NQ so far this morning has been very difficult. Very hard to read.

Yeah, absolutely....I'm really having a hard time finding my usual 'sniper' setups for a couple of days now, so I didn't take any trades since the beginning of last week.

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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 lancelottrader 
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Market is most likely waiting on Fed guy Powell to speak at 12 pm. When there is lack of trader commitment, most moves will have no follow through. You just get a little push here and there and then..nothing but a short change in direction. I'm staying out for now.

Failure is not an option
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 lancelottrader 
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redbarntrades View Post
Trading is such a personal journey.

What's interesting is that I love day's like today

I suppose you can play some bounce scalps off of some small S/R areas.. May I ask what kind of setups about today do you like ? Playing range fails? Interested in knowing how you would have traded NQ so far today.

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  #1309 (permalink)
redbarntrades
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lancelottrader View Post
Price action on NQ so far this morning has been very difficult. Very hard to read.

Trading is just a personal endeavor heh?

For me, I love days like today.

I have a very hard time with a trending market.

In regards to today, when price hit the 13750 level, there was bearish divergence and then a strong move down.

Then numerous hits on the 13700 level for moves to the upside.

These provide me with my edge.

I divide my chart into 50 levels as I found this often is a target for the market.

Signing out to go to the dentist.

Thanks for all of your posts!

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redbarntrades
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lancelottrader View Post
I suppose you can play some bounce scalps off of some small S/R areas.. May I ask what kind of setups about today do you like ? Playing range fails? Interested in knowing how you would have traded NQ so far today.

I will have to get back to you. Off to the dentist.

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 Daytrader999 
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lancelottrader View Post
Market is most likely waiting on Fed guy Powell to speak at 12 pm. When there is lack of trader commitment, most moves will have no follow through. You just get a little push here and there and then..nothing but a short change in direction. I'm staying out for now.

I agree....and for me it looks like that the market is waiting every day for a while now. Yesterday FOMC Minutes (more or less it came out as a non-event), or rising / falling bond yields, rising corporate taxes, today it's JP again, and tomorrow another Fed member....just name any 'justification' to do absolutely nothing.

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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  #1312 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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redbarntrades View Post
Trading is just a personal endeavor heh?

For me, I love day's like today.

I have a very hard time with a trending market.

In regards to today, when price hit the 13750 level, there was bearish divergence and then a strong move down.

Then numerous hits on the 13700 level for moves to the upside.

These provide me with my edge.

I divide my chart into 50 levels as I found this often is a target for the market.

Signing out to go to the dentist.

Thanks for all of your posts!

Thank you. I appreciate your explanation and it makes sense. It's a bit different than what I do, but if it works..great.

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  #1313 (permalink)
 sunshnpeg 
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redbarntrades View Post
Trading is just a personal endeavor heh?

For me, I love day's like today.

I have a very hard time with a trending market.

In regards to today, when price hit the 13750 level, there was bearish divergence and then a strong move down.

Then numerous hits on the 13700 level for moves to the upside.

These provide me with my edge.

I divide my chart into 50 levels as I found this often is a target for the market.

Signing out to go to the dentist.

Thanks for all of your posts!

I love days like this too!! Nice range bouncing around. I agree, trending days are harder for me.

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  #1314 (permalink)
 nosast 
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Same for me with NQ. Not much opps last couple of days. Shoot up overnight and than balance. Only trades I take are fading edges for small scalps.

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redbarntrades
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lancelottrader View Post
Thank you. I appreciate your explanation and it makes sense. It's a bit different than what I do, but if it works..great.

Back from my outing to find the NQ just futzing in that range.

I highly respect how you and a few others trade. Take a trade with your SL and TP set. I have tried your 3 range bar but found it to fast for me. I have spent countless hours with Renko/UniRenko only to find that a 2 minute chart seems to provide me with the info I need to create my own edge.

I can't get more than 20 minutes of 3 range data on my chart (43 in screen), so I can't seem to be able to study it properly. Obviously, Range charts are superior for interpreting structure, but make it difficult for me to find the "out of bounds" trades.

My basic premise is: High volatility, looking for price where it "should not be". Far from the mean. Indecision of dominant players. Whipsawing.

In the example below, price flies back and forth through the 20ema/20sma with the 200ma mostly flat.

If price is far from the 20 and the 200, I don't mind taking a counter trend trade as in the double top at the 50 level as it is not a trend.

Then price shot down through the 20 then through the 200, yet the 20 was still above the 200. So to me, price does not belong there and there is a high probability that it will spring back. Plus there was a price rejection at that level. On the 2 minute there were about 10 rejections between 10:13 and 11:21 EST on the ETH chart near the 13700 level.

I know this sounds crazy to probably a large number of traders, but I somehow just love the huge swings that occur at the open (when they happen).

Patience and boldness definitely play a large part in this type of environment.

I have included the chart from this morning for your amusement.

Always enjoying your posts!




chart

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  #1316 (permalink)
 Sandpaddict 
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lancelottrader View Post
Two emotions that have plagued me for years and often made my trading experience very unpleasant and unhealthy were Fear and Anger. Due to the psychological “damage” that resulted from years of failure and lost money, there has often been an inner fear that has gripped me not only when I put on a trade, but even was I about to place one. This would manifest in a large surge of adrenaline and I could literally feel my heart start to pound. My shirts would be soaked in the underarm area. I would see some perfect setups and simply could not pull the trigger. Then as I saw that these setups would have been easy winners, I felt frustration along with anger that I was missing the moves. Then finally, when price was no longer in that high probability area, I would go in..way late. Then, when the trade would lose, I would get upset. This would then trigger a wave of negative thoughts such as, “Here we go again”..”Why do I keep doing this stupid trading”..”I’m never going to really make it.”

Even when I started to be mostly profitable, I couldn’t shake the fear and anger. It finally dawned on me that when I’m on SIM, none of these things occur. I just take the trade and see what happens..No fear or anger flooding through me. Why? Because I don’t care that much if the SIM wins or loses and I know I generally will win more than I lose. Then it dawned on me…How much better would I be and how much more pleasant an experience would it be if I just divorced myself from the outcome of these trades while live? Of course, follow my drawdown rules etc..but just trade with no fear and if the trades lose..or if I lose the day..so what? If I don’t care that much, why will I get angry or fearful? I know I’m good enough to come out ahead in the long run. I know when conditions are lousy and when they are good. I know when to stay out and when to take several trades in a session.

So every morning I read a little essay I wrote about how I will have no fear of losing and no anger when losing..just acceptance. If it’s a losing day, no more being depressed for several hours afterwards. I’m not there yet 100%, but I am way better. Slowly the fear and anger is getting less and less. I treat it like a game, and I am getting better at it.


lancelottrader View Post
Two emotions that have plagued me for years and often made my trading experience very unpleasant and unhealthy were Fear and Anger. Due to the psychological “damage” that resulted from years of failure and lost money, there has often been an inner fear that has gripped me not only when I put on a trade, but even was I about to place one. This would manifest in a large surge of adrenaline and I could literally feel my heart start to pound. My shirts would be soaked in the underarm area. I would see some perfect setups and simply could not pull the trigger. Then as I saw that these setups would have been easy winners, I felt frustration along with anger that I was missing the moves. Then finally, when price was no longer in that high probability area, I would go in..way late. Then, when the trade would lose, I would get upset. This would then trigger a wave of negative thoughts such as, “Here we go again”..”Why do I keep doing this stupid trading”..”I’m never going to really make it.”

Even when I started to be mostly profitable, I couldn’t shake the fear and anger. It finally dawned on me that when I’m on SIM, none of these things occur. I just take the trade and see what happens..No fear or anger flooding through me. Why? Because I don’t care that much if the SIM wins or loses and I know I generally will win more than I lose. Then it dawned on me…How much better would I be and how much more pleasant an experience would it be if I just divorced myself from the outcome of these trades while live? Of course, follow my drawdown rules etc..but just trade with no fear and if the trades lose..or if I lose the day..so what? If I don’t care that much, why will I get angry or fearful? I know I’m good enough to come out ahead in the long run. I know when conditions are lousy and when they are good. I know when to stay out and when to take several trades in a session.

So every morning I read a little essay I wrote about how I will have no fear of losing and no anger when losing..just acceptance. If it’s a losing day, no more being depressed for several hours afterwards. I’m not there yet 100%, but I am way better. Slowly the fear and anger is getting less and less. I treat it like a game, and I am getting better at it.

Oh man this is frigging GOLD!...

I read it and read it and read it. Everytime I read it I come out with something new!

This MUST be a universal trading truth that no one advertises. We are almost all guaranteed to have to go through all that. And your still experiencing after 10 years!

Im in my 6th year. Its kinda crazy to say im just finally breaking even. I have along way to go. And alot of hardship before I get where you are but thats is the truth about day trading. At least I notice now that it WAS ME ALL ALONG. I'd wait and wait then go in... it would turn... I would panic and reverse... then it turn... then I'd say F-this I'm holding... !!@^#*$... you get the idea. Very REACTIVE.

I'm learning so much from sir Lancelottrader. Even though it's not the way I trade. Your honestly and clarity and ability to articulate the emotional side really sheds a light for me. (Move over Mark Douglas and Brett Steenbarger)

To me its ALL emotional. System rules yes but no emotions?

Trade like a robot they say. I think thats impossible. Mitigated for sure with a time tested system, confidence ect but none? Good luck.

Trade an algorithmic system? If you think that'll get rid of the emotions... you've never done it.

Al Brooks likes to say when people ask him this question is "trade the "I don't care size". Meaning take trades where the stop is where it should be and yet the loss would still be so small to not affect your overall account or "emotional account".

One last thing. I listened to Lancelottrader's webinar with futures.io a few times (it was that good!) One thing that blew me away was he something to the effect of (Im paraphrasing here)

"After years of trading and losing and looking back through my records I knew I had a good system and if I had an EMOTIONALLY STABLE PERSON to trade my system I'd be PROFITABLE!"

That was a revelation for me. A twist on the old "if you just get rid of your mistakes you'd be profitable". Which doesn't really mean anything. If I knew HOW I'd be profitable already.

But I do...

Take a beating. Learn something. Get up tomorrow a bit better and take a beating. Learn something. Get up the next day a bit better and take a beating. Learn something.

Thank you sir Lancelottrader!

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  #1317 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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Broker: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Trading: NQ
 
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Sandpaddict View Post
Oh man this is frigging GOLD!...

I read it and read it and read it. Everytime I read it I come out with something new!

This MUST be a universal trading truth that no one advertises. We are almost all guaranteed to have to go through all that. And your still experiencing after 10 years!

Im in my 6th year. Its kinda crazy to say im just finally breaking even. I have along way to go. And alot of hardship before I get where you are but thats is the truth about day trading. At least I notice now that it WAS ME ALL ALONG. I'd wait and wait then go in... it would turn... I would panic and reverse... then it turn... then I'd say F-this I'm holding... !!@^#*$... you get the idea. Very REACTIVE.

I'm learning so much from sir Lancelottrader. Even though it's not the way I trade. Your honestly and clarity and ability to articulate the emotional side really sheds a light for me. (Move over Mark Douglas and Brett Steenbarger)

To me its ALL emotional. System rules yes but no emotions?

Trade like a robot they say. I think thats impossible. Mitigated for sure with a time tested system, confidence ect but none? Good luck.

Trade an algorithmic system? If you think that'll get rid of the emotions... you've never done it.

Al Brooks likes to say when people ask him this question is "trade the "I don't care size". Meaning take trades where the stop is where it should be and yet the loss would still be so small to not affect your overall account or "emotional account".

One last thing. I listened to Lancelottrader's webinar with futures.io a few times (it was that good!) One thing that blew me away was he something to the effect of (Im paraphrasing here)

"After years of trading and losing and looking back through my records I knew I had a good system and if I had an EMOTIONALLY STABLE PERSON to trade my system I'd be PROFITABLE!"

That was a revelation for me. A twist on the old "if you just get rid of your mistakes you'd be profitable". Which doesn't really mean anything. If I knew HOW I'd be profitable already.

But I do...

Take a beating. Learn something. Get up tomorrow a bit better and take a beating. Learn something. Get up the next day a bit better and take a beating. Learn something.

Thank you sir Lancelottrader!

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Thank you. I'm glad to see that my experience is something you understand and can relate to. I appreciate it.

Failure is not an option
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  #1318 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: NQ
 
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redbarntrades View Post
Back from my outing to find the NQ just futzing in that range.

I highly respect how you and a few others trade. Take a trade with your SL and TP set. I have tried your 3 range bar but found it to fast for me. I have spent countless hours with Renko/UniRenko only to find that a 2 minute chart seems to provide me with the info I need to create my own edge.

I can't get more than 20 minutes of 3 range data on my chart (43 in screen), so I can't seem to be able to study it properly. Obviously, Range charts are superior for interpreting structure, but make it difficult for me to find the "out of bounds" trades.

My basic premise is: High volatility, looking for price where it "should not be". Far from the mean. Indecision of dominant players. Whipsawing.

In the example below, price flies back and forth through the 20ema/20sma with the 200ma mostly flat.

If price is far from the 20 and the 200, I don't mind taking a counter trend trade as in the double top at the 50 level as it is not a trend.

Then price shot down through the 20 then through the 200, yet the 20 was still above the 200. So to me, price does not belong there and there is a high probability that it will spring back. Plus there was a price rejection at that level. On the 2 minute there were about 10 rejections between 10:13 and 11:21 EST on the ETH chart near the 13700 level.

I know this sounds crazy to probably a large number of traders, but I somehow just love the huge swings that occur at the open (when they happen).

Patience and boldness definitely play a large part in this type of environment.

I have included the chart from this morning for your amusement.

Always enjoying your posts!




chart

Thank you for that. I say whatever works for you is the right way. I am always watching my 2 minute chart and I use the 5 range (not 3 range) to time in the moves in order to have the lowest risk possible and keep my stop generally behind an area that's a swing or support/resistance. I try to predict as little as possible and never trade just because price is at a level. I will however closely watch the price action at certain levels and the way the 5 range bars print at those levels to me is a form of "tape reading". But..certain days require different strategies and the key is to figure out what type of day you are dealing with before too many losses occur.

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redbarntrades
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lancelottrader View Post
Thank you for that. I say whatever works for you is the right way. I am always watching my 2 minute chart and I use the 5 range (not 3 range) to time in the moves in order to have the lowest risk possible and keep my stop generally behind an area that's a swing or support/resistance. I try to predict as little as possible and never trade just because price is at a level. I will however closely watch the price action at certain levels and the way the 5 range bars print at those levels to me is a form of "tape reading". But..certain days require different strategies and the key is to figure out what type of day you are dealing with before too many losses occur.

Thank you for your reply! Sorry, I did adjust to the 5 R-Bar and created a new chart and even tried the 10 R-Bar. I understand why and how you use it. It's obvious you have a good system.

That big question of "what kind of chart can I interpret so I can glean some movement that I believe will go in my direction".

Since I am a little on the ADD side, I have to look at as little as possible. The moving averages force me to see if they are sloping or flat. The 20/20 ema/sma are colored to remind me of the latest direction. The diverging of the same can (if I happen to notice) show me the strength of the move accompanied by how far/fast price is moving from said Ma's. I'm sure one single colored SMA would suffice.

Anyway, every chart tells a story huh?

I concur not to just buy or sell at an area. I look at the velocity of the move. Possible reversal points. Then just sit on my hands til I believe that exhaustion has taken place. Since I put on a feeler trade, I give the first contract enough breathing room. Then if price moves my direction, I can add. Sometimes it means hitting the buy/sell button as fast as my finger with go. Of course this is with the MNQ. Commissions are higher, but it gives me more options and suits my strategy. Most trades are just minutes in duration.

Enjoy that Florida warmth. We still have the woodstove going as we had a little snow shower this afternoon.

Always enjoy reading your posts!

Ps. I forgot to mention that I also employ Bookmap.

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 lancelottrader 
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Thank you for your reply! Sorry, I did adjust to the 5 R-Bar and created a new chart and even tried the 10 R-Bar. I understand why and how you use it. It's obvious you have a good system.

That big question of "what kind of chart can I interpret so I can glean some movement that I believe will go in my direction".

Since I am a little on the ADD side, I have to look at as little as possible. The moving averages force me to see if they are sloping or flat. The 20/20 ema/sma are colored to remind me of the latest direction. The diverging of the same can (if I happen to notice) show me the strength of the move accompanied by how far/fast price is moving from said Ma's. I'm sure one single colored SMA would suffice.

Anyway, every chart tells a story huh?

I concur not to just buy or sell at an area. I look at the velocity of the move. Possible reversal points. Then just sit on my hands til I believe that exhaustion has taken place. Since I put on a feeler trade, I give the first contract enough breathing room. Then if price moves my direction, I can add. Sometimes it means hitting the buy/sell button as fast as my finger with go. Of course this is with the MNQ. Commissions are higher, but it gives me more options and suits my strategy. Most trades are just minutes in duration.

Enjoy that Florida warmth. We still have the woodstove going as we had a little snow shower this afternoon.

Always enjoy reading your posts!

Ps. I forgot to mention that I also employ Bookmap.

Thank you for explaining more. It sounds good to me. I like your colored ema/sma too.

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 lancelottrader 
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Trying out a new chart I've added. A 15 second chart with the "TrendGRaBer" indicator found on this site. So far I am liking it.
NQ 06-21 (15 Second) 2021_04_13 (9_49_08 AM) new bar type

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 JJFinancial 
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Thanks Lance.

Is this In Addition to the Range Bar chart or would you be using this Instead of the Range Bar chart?

TY again,

John

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 lancelottrader 
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JJFinancial View Post
Thanks Lance.

Is this In Addition to the Range Bar chart or would you be using this Instead of the Range Bar chart?

TY again,

John

It's in addition. I still will use the 5 Range to time in and it shows certain patterns..but I like this for short term trend identification..plus when I'm in a trade it seems less stressful to watch the smoother price action on than the jumpy 5 range..which can make you get a little nervous..lol

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 lancelottrader 
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NQ 06-21 (15 Second) 2021_04_13 (10_22_43 AM) 2

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 lancelottrader 
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NQ 06-21 (15 Second) 2021_04_13 (10_30_39 AM) 3

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 lancelottrader 
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I am liking the added confirmation from this chart. I've grabbed a few winners today that I may not have entered without it.

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 JJFinancial 
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Thanks Lance,

Could I ask approx what have been your Targets/Stops lately? I know this can change depending upon the volatility, of course.

Also....about how many trades/day you're doing? Again I know can vary greatly.

Lastly, I just became acquainted with your Thread/Journal when you did that webinar recently. I just recently got done thru going thru the 10 years lol Yours is the first Thread/Journal I've ever followed in the 4 years I've been a member here. I want to echo the sentiments expressed by many in saying THANK YOU for being SO generous with your time and expertise!

John

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 lancelottrader 
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JJFinancial View Post
Thanks Lance,

Could I ask approx what have been your Targets/Stops lately? I know this can change depending upon the volatility, of course.

Also....about how many trades/day you're doing? Again I know can vary greatly.

Lastly, I just became acquainted with your Thread/Journal when you did that webinar recently. I just recently got done thru going thru the 10 years lol Yours is the first Thread/Journal I've ever followed in the 4 years I've been a member here. I want to echo the sentiments expressed by many in saying THANK YOU for being SO generous with your time and expertise!

John

Lately, I usually go for 40 tick target and stop like you see here from this trade I just took minutes ago. But If I think I am just going to get a small bounce off of a support and resistance area, I go for 25 tick target and stop. That 25 ticks is very tight and the trade needs to be timed perfectly. I use more contracts with the smaller target to compensate and get the same profit amount. On extremely volatile days with tons of volume, I go sometimes for 80 ticks or more..but the stop is never more than 40 ticks.

15 sec new chart

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 lancelottrader 
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Yes..definitely liking this..another win a few minutes ago. Finished live..just playing on SIM now
15 sec winner 2

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lancelottrader View Post
Lately, I usually go for 40 tick target and stop like you see here from this trade I just took minutes ago. But If I think I am just going to get a small bounce off of a support and resistance area, I go for 25 tick target and stop. That 25 ticks is very tight and the trade needs to be timed perfectly. I use more contracts with the smaller target to compensate and get the same profit amount. On extremely volatile days with tons of volume, I go sometimes for 80 ticks or more..but the stop is never more than 40 ticks.

15 sec new chart

I too have been reading your journal since the webinar. I have so much respect for the way you trade as it seems you have fully worked out the system that works for you by trial and error. The good ol' empirical way!

I have some trading beliefs that just go against conventional wisdom because experience tells me they don't work! I notice you say things that challenge conventional wisdom because maybe you weren't taught it and can see they don't necessarily work.

I have no idea how you can catch those 40ticks with a 1 R/R and still make money over time. You would need over a %60 win rate. Which you must have plus the occasional runner but wow that $H!T moves FAST!

And you post these beautifully easily looking tradable charts! Ha! Ya right! Lightning fast live I'm sure.

My problem on those charts is by the time I enter I realize it's somehow gone 20 ticks in the wrong direction almost immediately... Ok wait and see what happens nex... too late 40 tick stop hit. Lol

Good on ya. It's very impressive. Reminds me of Lance Beggs trading style a bit.

Thank you for sharing!

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 lancelottrader 
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Darn..should have stayed live. But..since I was experimenting with a new setup, didn't want to push my luck. Another SIM winner
15 sec winner 3

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 lancelottrader 
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Definitely should have stayed live...win after win on SIM
15 sec sim 4

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lancelottrader View Post
Definitely should have stayed live...win after win on SIM
15 sec sim 4

Sure appreciate you sharing your charts!

It's always great to see what others are doing!

Thank you!

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lancelottrader View Post
Definitely should have stayed live...win after win on SIM
15 sec sim 4

In my experience trading on sim is so much psychologically different. Easier by multitudes. For most people they WOULD do better on sim. Doesn't mean they would have had those trades live.

Agian for me, I go sim... do awesome... get over confident... go live.... F*#&# things up to an inch of my account... go back to amazing sim trading. For that reason I try to stay %100 live.

In your case you probably would have taken those trades live and done very well.

Curious. What is your criteria for going to sim and/or back to live?

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 lancelottrader 
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Sandpaddict View Post
In my experience trading on sim is so much psychologically different. Easier by multitudes. For most people they WOULD do better on sim. Doesn't mean they would have had those trades live.

Agian for me, I go sim... do awesome... get over confident... go live.... F*#&# things up to an inch of my account... go back to amazing sim trading. For that reason I try to stay %100 live.

In your case you probably would have taken those trades live and done very well.

Curious. What is your criteria for going to sim and/or back to live?

I rarely ever trade SIM. Yesterday was the first time I tried using an additional chart (The 15 second one with the indicator)..So after I had won a very nice day live, I decided to practice the new setup on SIM. So Sim is only for experimenting with something new,,,and basically I haven't changed any of my charts..bar types etc..in several years. I was just trying to have something that might add some additional context..but my system remains almost 100% the same as it's been.

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lancelottrader View Post
I rarely ever trade SIM. Yesterday was the first time I tried using an additional chart (The 15 second one with the indicator)..So after I had won a very nice day live, I decided to practice the new setup on SIM. So Sim is only for experimenting with something new,,,and basically I haven't changed any of my charts..bar types etc..in several years. I was just trying to have something that might add some additional context..but my system remains almost 100% the same as it's been.

Thanks for that. Makes sense.

Since following your posts some more I have been looking at those beautiful swings in the lower times frames as well.

It's psychologically easier to hold onto trades when you see them screaming higher above those EMAs or whatever you choose to use.

Also for me as I'm almost always in the market the turning points are easier to see it seems.

I still trade my main chart but I've added a 5min for context and 2 range chart for those runners and for sentiment you can't see on the higher TFs.

I also have T&S but I just use that as a gauge as to how fast the markets moving.

Thanks again

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Definitely should have stayed live...win after win on SIM
15 sec sim 4

Your chart above made me think of a faster time frame for entries but only in context of my 5 min. RTH. Focusing more on candles. But then, started applying the same thought to my 34 second chart.

So the chart below is the area that you took the trade yesterday. The high/low of the box is your SL/TP.

This chart has a colored 20sma (34 sec.) and a 20sma (5min.) and a gold 200sma.

Just thought I would share it as an option for anyone interested. Of course, yours is sooo much prettier!

Today, this has provided great entries. I get a broad sense of the market with the 5 minute chart but am able to drill down and get much better entries.

Thanks for your chart. It provided stimulus to look at things differently.

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 joe s 
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thanks lancelottrader I like that new chart I will give it a try

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 lancelottrader 
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redbarntrades View Post
Your chart above made me think of a faster time frame for entries but only in context of my 5 min. RTH. Focusing more on candles. But then, started applying the same thought to my 34 second chart.

So the chart below is the area that you took the trade yesterday. The high/low of the box is your SL/TP.

This chart has a colored 20sma (34 sec.) and a 20sma (5min.) and a gold 200sma.

Just thought I would share it as an option for anyone interested. Of course, yours is sooo much prettier!

Today, this has provided great entries. I get a broad sense of the market with the 5 minute chart but am able to drill down and get much better entries.

Thanks for your chart. It provided stimulus to look at things differently.

That looks good. Thank you.

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 lancelottrader 
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Here's a video of today's trades. All of them are what I call "Grid Scalps". It's a technique I use when volatility is lower.

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 JJFinancial 
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Hi Lance,

Could you share your thoughts on what your current Ticks per weeks...Per Contract has been the last year or so?
OR....what your target goal is? Wayyyyy back when you were first doing CL...I believe you started with a 60 tick per week goal,
then revised your thinking that you could do MUCH better than that.
I don't recall seeing too much mention of that re: NQ....especially since there were some big time gaps the last couple of years.

Also....what are your thoughts on a Daily stop loss....again in ticks per contract.

Thanks so much again for all that you do!

John

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 lancelottrader 
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JJFinancial View Post
Hi Lance,

Could you share your thoughts on what your current Ticks per weeks...Per Contract has been the last year or so?
OR....what your target goal is? Wayyyyy back when you were first doing CL...I believe you started with a 60 tick per week goal,
then revised your thinking that you could do MUCH better than that.
I don't recall seeing too much mention of that re: NQ....especially since there were some big time gaps the last couple of years.

Also....what are your thoughts on a Daily stop loss....again in ticks per contract.

Thanks so much again for all that you do!

John

Hi John. In regards to your question about the goal for ticks in a week, I really haven't calculated it. I have a basic idea of the amount of profitability..on average..but that can vary too.
For example, today I did 25 tick scalps for the most part. However, I use more contracts than when I am going for 40 to 50 tick targets. So 25 ticks at 4 contracts equals the same dollar amount as 50 ticks at 2 contracts. So, I'm really looking more for how much profit is made than ticks.

I sort of stopped having a weekly goal or a daily goal because I found that I would get disappointed when I didn't hit a goal. I am mostly focused now on process goals. Did I trade good setups? Did I not go into a move because I was afraid of missing out instead of waiting for the conditions to be right?. Did I control my impulses (which is tough for me..ADHD maybe?) Did I minimize fear and hesitation and also not get upset at losing trades..or losing days? I find if I do everything the best I can..in terms of following my rules..everything works out ok.

The Daily drawdown is what I have struggled with..First of all, in terms of knowing what is the right number to stop at. There were times when I felt I didn't need one..that I was good enough to keep going and not shut down for the day. That didn't work out well. I would some days keep losing, then add more contracts to win it back, etc..till I had a total disaster. Even now, when I hit my drawdown amount, it takes every fiber of my being to walk away. I definitely have a problem there. I hate to stop! And unless you've traded live and gone through this, it's very hard to explain. Since my max stop loss on my 2 contract trades is 40 ticks, that's $400 per loss. I only allow 2 losses for a total of $800. That's it..Game over..even if I think I can easily win it back .If I keep going and losing, something in my brain goes haywire and I start to get "Chimp like"...lol. Now, if I'm doing 4 contract 25 tick scalps, then each loss is $500. So two of those losses is $1000. So my drawdown for the day can range from $800 to $1000. The good news is I often far surpass those amounts on good winning days.
Thanks for your nice words,
Lance

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 JJFinancial 
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lancelottrader View Post
Hi John. In regards to your question about the goal for ticks in a week, I really haven't calculated it. I have a basic idea of the amount of profitability..on average..but that can vary too.
For example, today I did 25 tick scalps for the most part. However, I use more contracts than when I am going for 40 to 50 tick targets. So 25 ticks at 4 contracts equals the same dollar amount as 50 ticks at 2 contracts. So, I'm really looking more for how much profit is made than ticks.

I sort of stopped having a weekly goal or a daily goal because I found that I would get disappointed when I didn't hit a goal. I am mostly focused now on process goals. Did I trade good setups? Did I not go into a move because I was afraid of missing out instead of waiting for the conditions to be right?. Did I control my impulses (which is tough for me..ADHD maybe?) Did I minimize fear and hesitation and also not get upset at losing trades..or losing days? I find if I do everything the best I can..in terms of following my rules..everything works out ok.

The Daily drawdown is what I have struggled with..First of all, in terms of knowing what is the right number to stop at. There were times when I felt I didn't need one..that I was good enough to keep going and not shut down for the day. That didn't work out well. I would some days keep losing, then add more contracts to win it back, etc..till I had a total disaster. Even now, when I hit my drawdown amount, it takes every fiber of my being to walk away. I definitely have a problem there. I hate to stop! And unless you've traded live and gone through this, it's very hard to explain. Since my max stop loss on my 2 contract trades is 40 ticks, that's $400 per loss. I only allow 2 losses for a total of $800. That's it..Game over..even if I think I can easily win it back .If I keep going and losing, something in my brain goes haywire and I start to get "Chimp like"...lol. Now, if I'm doing 4 contract 25 tick scalps, then each loss is $500. So two of those losses is $1000. So my drawdown for the day can range from $800 to $1000. The good news is I often far surpass those amounts on good winning days.
Thanks for your nice words,
Lance

Thanks for the very detailed explanation, Lance. I know these concepts of "when should I quit....both when ahead or behind", goals, targets, etc can be exasperating!

I'd like to share something re: impulse, revenge trading. so....Like 40 years ago i was a prof blackjack player for 10 year. I NEVER, EVER, EVER went off the deep end, revenge played to get even, etc. I was unbelievably disciplined. BUT I'M NOT WITH TRADING! Missing setups, or even seeing a big move and thinking " I should have been able to get in on that", trying to get back to even when down, etc....has been very touch to deal with.

One thing I DID figure out is that....it's TOO fricking easy to trade! I DON'T mean trade well...I just mean executing a trade. Click a mouse and Voila! You're in a trade lol when playing Blackjack...I had to travel to Nev, get a hotel, scout the casinos, pit boss on duty, dealer, etc etc. A lot of work went into just finding great conditions to play in. But with trading...just a quick flick of the mouse and we can go berserk lol. So personally just walking away for a bit is a big help.

Anyway....just thought I share.

Thanks again, Lance

John

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 lancelottrader 
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JJFinancial View Post
Thanks for the very detailed explanation, Lance. I know these concepts of "when should I quit....both when ahead or behind", goals, targets, etc can be exasperating!

I'd like to share something re: impulse, revenge trading. so....Like 40 years ago i was a prof blackjack player for 10 year. I NEVER, EVER, EVER went off the deep end, revenge played to get even, etc. I was unbelievably disciplined. BUT I'M NOT WITH TRADING! Missing setups, or even seeing a big move and thinking " I should have been able to get in on that", trying to get back to even when down, etc....has been very touch to deal with.

One thing I DID figure out is that....it's TOO fricking easy to trade! I DON'T mean trade well...I just mean executing a trade. Click a mouse and Voila! You're in a trade lol when playing Blackjack...I had to travel to Nev, get a hotel, scout the casinos, pit boss on duty, dealer, etc etc. A lot of work went into just finding great conditions to play in. But with trading...just a quick flick of the mouse and we can go berserk lol. So personally just walking away for a bit is a big help.

Anyway....just thought I share.

Thanks again, Lance

John

Thank you..and congrats on your blackjack playing discipline. I know many will bristle at what I am about to write..but there are very similar effects on the brain as those that are in gambling....maybe even worse. The dopamine that gets secreted when you win can almost cause euphoria..like a drug..just like in Gambling..and losing of course can trigger the epinephrine (adrenaline) etc. Some of course will get this worse than others. It can be an addiction...I think I've been sort of a trading addict..and I just happened to have the ability to spend a lot of years at this to where I have some semblance of skill now. But for many, this endeavor will not end well.

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lancelottrader View Post
Thank you..and congrats on your blackjack playing discipline. I know many will bristle at what I am about to write..but there are very similar effects on the brain as those that are in gambling....maybe even worse. The dopamine that gets secreted when you win can almost cause euphoria..like a drug..just like in Gambling..and losing of course can trigger the epinephrine (adrenaline) etc. Some of course will get this worse than others. It can be an addiction...I think I've been sort of a trading addict..and I just happened to have the ability to spend a lot of years at this to where I have some semblance of skill now. But for many, this endeavor will not end well.


I totally get where you're coming from. Even though I Played cards for a living for 10 years, I NEVER considered it Gambling! Why not? Because I absolutely, positive knew I had a mathematical edge when I played. Unless, or course, I was mis counting the cards. with trading, we never really TRULY know if we do in fact have an edge, although a track record over hundreds or thousands of trades certainly would imply that one does.

I'm not any kind of a gambler at all...ie I don't bet on sports, unless it's maybe $5 or so lol

Here's an interesting thing re: getting the adrenaline going. I've got this friends that trades NQ. He basically trades like you....he calls it Run - Retrace. So like in 2019 he made just under 500k trading 6 lots. He changes indicators like every other month lol But in reality it's just looking at the same setups through different sets of glasses. Anyway, I've seen him get totally wired to where he'll do 100-250 trades in a day. But usually averages maybe 20-30. I KNOW it's just cuz he's bored, or amped, or, wired,but it just shows how one can "get in those funky frames of mind". Just imagine the commissions on those days! lol

Just as a sidenote.....he was trading 6s risking about 30 ticks so about $900 per trade risk. That was HIS comfort level.

Oh, just one more sidenote....he began his trading career about 10 years ago by losing $100,000 right outta the gate!

Thanks again,

John

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 lancelottrader 
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JJFinancial View Post
I totally get where you're coming from. Even though I Played cards for a living for 10 years, I NEVER considered it Gambling! Why not? Because I absolutely, positive knew I had a mathematical edge when I played. Unless, or course, I was mis counting the cards. with trading, we never really TRULY know if we do in fact have an edge, although a track record over hundreds or thousands of trades certainly would imply that one does.

I'm not any kind of a gambler at all...ie I don't bet on sports, unless it's maybe $5 or so lol

Here's an interesting thing re: getting the adrenaline going. I've got this friends that trades NQ. He basically trades like you....he calls it Run - Retrace. So like in 2019 he made just under 500k trading 6 lots. He changes indicators like every other month lol But in reality it's just looking at the same setups through different sets of glasses. Anyway, I've seen him get totally wired to where he'll do 100-250 trades in a day. But usually averages maybe 20-30. I KNOW it's just cuz he's bored, or amped, or, wired,but it just shows how one can "get in those funky frames of mind". Just imagine the commissions on those days! lol

Just as a sidenote.....he was trading 6s risking about 30 ticks so about $900 per trade risk. That was HIS comfort level.

Oh, just one more sidenote....he began his trading career about 10 years ago by losing $100,000 right outta the gate!

Thanks again,

John

Wow..about your friend. That's someone to learn from. And I hope you know I wasn't suggesting your Blackjack was gambling..I was referring to trading sometimes..in some people..being like gambling. I'm like you. I don't bet...When I went to Vegas, I played a couple of slot machines for a few minutes and that was it.

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 JJFinancial 
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lancelottrader View Post
Wow..about your friend. That's someone to learn from. And I hope you know I wasn't suggesting your Blackjack was gambling..I was referring to trading sometimes..in some people..being like gambling. I'm like you. I don't bet...When I went to Vegas, I played a couple of slot machines for a few minutes and that was it.

I hear ya. I live 5 miles from the biggest Indian Casino west of the Mississippi and also just pumped a few quarters in their machines once. I NEVER play BJ now cuz i know i have no edge.

Skyped with my friend today. He's trading 4 lots these days with NQ and RTY messing around with taking 2 off when he's up a bit and using a trailing stop on the others. Averaging about $700 per day per contract. 20-25 trades a day on avg. The problem with learning from him is that he Literally entirely changes things up every couple of months. I really have to hand it to him after losing the 100k to start things off...to hang in there and figure things out. Much like You!

Best,
John

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redbarntrades
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lancelottrader:

I really appreciate your video! I could watch one every day! Over the last years finding just a few traders who make certain comments which affirms my own thinking is very uplifting as my wife and I have done this on our own.

You are an excellent presenter. Certain comments you make bring information that adds to my own knowledge base.

I enjoy comparing your charts/video(s) at the point which you take a trade and then transpose those time onto my own chart to see how I would have felt taking a trade at the point(s) where you do while looking for insights.

That high around 11:08 was accompanied with neg. divergence. So I was not surprised that it had that strong move to the downside. I keep reminding myself to "expect the unexpected".

That reversal at 12:05ish occurred when the 15 minute candle bounced off the 20ma.

I'm glad you mentioned in the video that there did not seem to be the volatility this morning. I don't know how many times that I thought "just get going would you"?

Cheers from Grizzly Bear Country!

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Ali1440
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lancelottrader View Post
Here's a video of today's trades. All of them are what I call "Grid Scalps". It's a technique I use when volatility is lower.

Hello! I have stumbled upon this thread recently, really impressed with amount of useful information here. Your trading style very similar to mine though I rely on tick charts but the idea is the same.

Nevertheless, I don`t understand how it possible to be profitable in the long run with 1:1 RRR? As I understand you don`t vary position size, 4 contracts is your constant size. So mathematically you must have at least 60% winning rate. Moreover, loosing streaks, which inevitably occur, may lead to a significant drawdowns.

Could you explain your Risk/Reward approach?

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 lancelottrader 
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Ali1440 View Post
Hello! I have stumbled upon this thread recently, really impressed with amount of useful information here. Your trading style very similar to mine though I rely on tick charts but the idea is the same.

Nevertheless, I don`t understand how it possible to be profitable in the long run with 1:1 RRR? As I understand you don`t vary position size, 4 contracts is your constant size. So mathematically you must have at least 60% winning rate. Moreover, loosing streaks, which inevitably occur, may lead to a significant drawdowns.

Could you explain your Risk/Reward approach?

I went into this more in the webinar I recently did on here. I don't always have the same risk/reward. Sometimes I have a 40 tick stop and a 80 tick target. Sometimes I have even bigger runners than that. On days when price isn't moving too fast, I scalp for 25 ticks. When I have smaller targets I use more contracts. When I am using a 40 tick stop loss and 40 tick targets..or bigger targets, I use two contracts. So, I do vary position size depending if I'm scalping or going for bigger targets. I do have some losing days of course, but after 15 years of trading, I don't tend to have losing streaks where I have several losing days in a row.

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Ali1440
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lancelottrader View Post
I went into this more in the webinar I recently did on here. I don't always have the same risk/reward. Sometimes I have a 40 tick stop and a 80 tick target. Sometimes I have even bigger runners than that. On days when price isn't moving too fast, I scalp for 25 ticks. When I have smaller targets I use more contracts. When I am using a 40 tick stop loss and 40 tick targets..or bigger targets, I use two contracts. So, I do vary position size depending if I'm scalping or going for bigger targets. I do have some losing days of course, but after 15 years of trading, I don't tend to have losing streaks where I have several losing days in a row.

Thank's for reply! I got it! So, by varying your position size properly you're achieving positive expectation, because on average your winners have bigger size than loosers. Plus, part of your trades have higher RRR.

Am I correct?

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 lancelottrader 
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Ali1440 View Post
Thank's for reply! I got it! So, by varying your position size properly you're achieving positive expectation, because on average your winners have bigger size than loosers. Plus, part of your trades have higher RRR.

Am I correct?

Yes..on on days when I can really read the market and I'm up nicely, I will add more contracts so I can have some big winning days.

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redbarntrades
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lancelottrader View Post
I went into this more in the webinar I recently did on here. I don't always have the same risk/reward. Sometimes I have a 40 tick stop and a 80 tick target. Sometimes I have even bigger runners than that. On days when price isn't moving too fast, I scalp for 25 ticks. When I have smaller targets I use more contracts. When I am using a 40 tick stop loss and 40 tick targets..or bigger targets, I use two contracts. So, I do vary position size depending if I'm scalping or going for bigger targets. I do have some losing days of course, but after 15 years of trading, I don't tend to have losing streaks where I have several losing days in a row.

Greetings! I mentioned before that I employ a horizontal line every 50 dollars. When you mentioned the grid trading, it made me think back to the days of Forex/Nadex. Back then, I would put S/R lines on the chart. Then after going to futures, I halted that habit.

During range days with good volatility as in today (Friday), I went back to that habit of creating grids. I started the pre-market by striking lines at pivots on the 2 minute. I sped up the trading chart to 21 seconds from the 34 seconds.

It dawned on me that your grid suggestion might prove helpful. And it surely did! Since my average trade time lasted 1.4 minutes today, the zones worked well. Results were 85.86-longs, 90.40-shorts w/ average of 88.39% win rate.

In regards to stop losses, that's a long discussion. Stops have to be discussed in light of probabilities, leverage, chaos theory, volatility, fear, account size, risk tolerance, experience and a host of other topics. Of course I'm sure that you already know this.

Thank you!

Have a great weekend!

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 Sandpaddict 
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lancelottrader View Post
For example, today I did 25 tick scalps for the most part. However, I use more contracts than when I am going for 40 to 50 tick targets. So 25 ticks at 4 contracts equals the same dollar amount as 50 ticks at 2 contracts. So, I'm really looking more for how much profit is made than ticks.

I believe this is really the ONLY professional way to look at it. You have your entries and exits giving you your points/ticks/pips. Then you layer position sizing on top of that and thats the real magic. It's your entries and exits that control risk but it's your position sizing that makes you the money.

Secondly the other "professional" thing I notice you do, which really is two sides of the same coin, is equalize risk by taking the same size total risk on each position by dividing the total risk in dollars by the ticks risked.

In my own trading I'm trading the smallest size possible because of mistakes. More accurately, my inability to stop making them even when I know I'm making them!

I'm proud I have stopped losing but I can't seem to keep those fresh new highs coming.

Thanks again. This is the one journal I read everyday!

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 tvaughan4 
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JJFinancial View Post
Skyped with my friend today. He's trading 4 lots these days with NQ and RTY messing around with taking 2 off when he's up a bit and using a trailing stop on the others. Averaging about $700 per day per contract. 20-25 trades a day on avg. The problem with learning from him is that he Literally entirely changes things up every couple of months. I really have to hand it to him after losing the 100k to start things off...to hang in there and figure things out. Much like You!

Best,
John

Any idea where he takes his 2 off at? Specifically? Rather than "up a bit"? Curious because I have been messing around with this going between a fixed target of 10 pts (NQ) and a dynamic target of a 1:1 RR wherever I put my initial stop depending on the volatility/ATR parameters. When that target is hit I bring the other half up to breakeven.

But then I'm always going back and forth wondering if it's worth it taking half off at a predefined level if I'm taking full stop losses...? I guess that's just a matter of system/win rate/journaling and finding out what works for you over time?

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 JJFinancial 
Temecula CA USA
 
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tvaughan4 View Post
Any idea where he takes his 2 off at? Specifically? Rather than "up a bit"? Curious because I have been messing around with this going between a fixed target of 10 pts (NQ) and a dynamic target of a 1:1 RR wherever I put my initial stop depending on the volatility/ATR parameters. When that target is hit I bring the other half up to breakeven.

But then I'm always going back and forth wondering if it's worth it taking half off at a predefined level if I'm taking full stop losses...? I guess that's just a matter of system/win rate/journaling and finding out what works for you over time?

Hi,
He has an initial stop of 30 on all 4. Takes 2 off at +8. He has a 30 tick trailing stop on the other 2 that adjusts every 3 ticks.
Takes one of the 2 remaining off at +40 and the last one at +80. Assuming of course that they're not stopped out.

He says he has a Full Stop out about 15% of the time. He's only been doing it live for 3 weeks. Averaging about $700 per contract per day so far.

It's an auto trade ATM once he's in.

John

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