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The Crude Dude Oil Trading System

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  #1001 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Here are today's trades. I only had time to take a few.


Failure is not an option
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  #1002 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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I hate to use the cliche "My Journey"..but I'm not sure what else to call it. I am writing this to give some perspective of what it's been like for me over the past ten years or so. I guess this could also be a cautionary tale.
If someone asked me, even last year, what the biggest mistake I ever made in my life was, I would have to say, "Getting into trading." Having been pretty decent at most jobs or vocations I had, there was nothing that I could imagine doing for five years straight and be a total failure at. Yet, that's what my trading had been..A Failure..an Epic Disaster. So how did I get into this whole quagmire of torment ?
I had been selling Real Estate for several years and had recently enrolled in a local Film School. I went on to make some short films that were in Film festivals and I really enjoyed the creative process. While there, a fellow student convinced me to attend a seminar for a trading software called Forex Made Easy...Ok.. everybody stop laughing now!
I first was exposed to trading/investing when I was a kid, because my father had his own investment business. In our house in Palm beach, he had an office in the 1970's that had the early Trade quote computers. It seemed like I could tell when he was doing poorly because his moods would sour. Later on, through trusting a Bernie Madoff like partner, he lost a tremendous amount of money. So for me, I associated the markets with being an endeavor I wanted no part of.
Yet, there I was, after a 3 hour seminar, shelling out almost $4000.00 for this silly Wizetrade Red light/Green light software. Why? Well, of course the presenter was good at his job and it gave me a dream. Instead of selling Real Estate, I would trade my Forex Made Easy software for two hours a day. I would then spend the rest of my day writing my film scripts and make movies. Did I really investigate what trading was all about? Did I understand the statistics of failure amongst traders? No. I had never failed at anything I put my mind to. I would use the same principles of discipline and hard work that I always did and surely I would succeed at this too? Right?
I had no idea what I was getting into.
End of Part 1

Please let me know if you want me to continue with this little story. Thanks

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  #1003 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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lancelottrader View Post

Please let me know if you want me to continue with this little story. Thanks

Yes.

Bob.

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  #1004 (permalink)
 jceg1110 
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Please let me know if you want me to continue with this little story. Thanks

Yes please.

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  #1005 (permalink)
 Popsicle 
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Please let me know if you want me to continue with this little story.

Yes please



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  #1006 (permalink)
 MichaelH 
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Yes please

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  #1007 (permalink)
 Brandenton 
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lancelottrader View Post

Please let me know if you want me to continue with this little story. Thanks

Yes, please do.

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  #1008 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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As you can see from the Wizetrade Chart, it was a system based on green and red Lights on the bottom. The Lights are comprised of various timeframes which you can select and the chart itself is some sort of "proprietary" system of green and red line crosses. In actuality, they were probably some sort of simple moving averages. So I threw myself into their system and started paper trading the currency pairs like Euro/Usd, Pound/yen. and several others.
Probably the worst thing happened to me. I got pretty lucky and won a lot from the very start. I saw no reason to keep doing the sim trading, so I opened an account. I decided to fund my account with about $13,000.00. I graduated quickly from Micro lots..to mini lots ($1 a tick..or what they call Pips) and then to standard lots ($10 a pip).

I used a broker called MB trading and they seemed pretty good, initially.
There was one setup with the charts that seemed to work pretty well. When there was some sort of extreme order flow or a spike, the lines on the chart, in several of the smaller timeframes would shoot straight up (if it was long move) in a totally vertical way. I found a tradeable pattern. I would see the price spike and then a pullback would often happen. Then when there was a crossover on the 1 minute wizetrade chart back in the direction of the spike, I would enter . This was often good for 10 pip scalp. It seemed to work quite a bit.
The other pic I attached is from a journal I was keeping in 2008. It documents my first real trade mishap around New years Day. I had decided to travel to Las Vegas with my girlfriend to ring in the New Year. One of the events I planned was to see the newly reformed Van Halen..with original singer David Lee Roth. Yes, I'm an old timer..haha.

For some reason, the day of my flight, I took a quick trade long on the pound/yen, going in with two standard lots which is $20 a pip. Almost immediately it started diving down and as it approached my 20 tick stoploss, I decided to move it another 20 pips away. I kind of was packing and doing stuff, not overly worried, and peaked back in at the trade. It was about to hit my 40 pip stop and I started getting a little depressed. Did I really want to lose $800 right before I got on a plane to Vegas? No way..so I did something very stupid. I removed the stoploss and moved my target to break even. I went back to packing. I came back 20 minutes later and discovered that MB trading was closed for an early pre holiday trading day. It was Friday and they weren't going to open until Monday. I decided that on Monday, I would call the broker and either throw on a stop loss or exit the trade.

Over the weekend in Vegas I had a good time going out to eat, seeing shows and of course the Van Halen concert. I was a bit disappointed on how badly Roth was butchering the songs. Anyhow........
I call MB trading Monday and received the shock of my life. Somehow the market had gapped down huge! The pound/yen had dropped over 500 ticks! My 12,000$ account was down $10,000.00 . I didn't realize that this was the result of the early part of the financial crisis. If I lost $2000 more, my account would be liquidated. My broker said it was probably just a bizarre move due to some global news over the weekend. He said it's possible it could go back up and over time get me back to even. However, it might move down a bit more. So, I decided to take the chance it would rebound up to my entry. To make sure I didn't get a margin call, I wired in another $8000.00. It would have to crash another 500 pips or so.. for me to lose it Surely that was unlikely, right?
Wrong! It did that in one day. So I lost not only the $12,000.00 I originally had, but also the $8000.00 I had just wired in from Vegas..for a total of $20,000.00 !
So here I am in Vegas, where people lose a fortune gambling at the tables...and I lose 20k by just being an idiot in Forex.
To be continued....

Failure is not an option
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  #1009 (permalink)
 noobforlyfe 
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lancelottrader View Post
As you can see from the Wizetrade Chart, it was a system based on green and red Lights on the bottom. The Lights are comprised of various timeframes which you can select and the chart itself is some sort of "proprietary" system of green and red line crosses. In actuality, they were probably some sort of simple moving averages. So I threw myself into their system and started paper trading the currency pairs like Euro/Usd, Pound/yen. and several others.
Probably the worst thing happened to me. I got pretty lucky and won a lot from the very start. I saw no reason to keep doing the sim trading, so I opened an account. I decided to fund my account with about $13,000.00. I graduated quickly from Micro lots..to mini lots ($1 a tick..or what they call Pips) and then to standard lots ($10 a pip).

thank you for sharing this Lance, it must've taken a great deal to share with us. i appreciate it.

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  #1010 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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noobforlyfe View Post
thank you for sharing this Lance, it must've taken a great deal to share with us. i appreciate it.

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Thank you. I've mentioned that there were some dark periods in some our P.Ms.. Now you will see exactly what I meant.

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  #1011 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Jeez man, I just can't even imagine... thank you for sharing, and I'm really glad to see that you have been able to persevere. A true testament to the double edged nature of this business.

So many think about success in the markets as a destination, but I think one of the prerequisites is the knowledge that learning to trade is an ever-evolving process. Obviously some things had to change in order for you to continue. I'd be very interested to hear about your path from there to where you are currently; what you discovered along the way, the struggles you've had, and how you went about implementing the changes effectively to overcome them.

Too bad the show didn't fly, I'm old school too and still love to fire up some VH... although the Doors' "Break On Through" comes to mind here lol. I've always enjoyed picking the brains of people who are making things happen in their lives so apologies in advance.. you're a natural target

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  #1012 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Rrrracer View Post
Jeez man, I just can't even imagine... thank you for sharing, and I'm really glad to see that you have been able to persevere. A true testament to the double edged nature of this business.

So many think about success in the markets as a destination, but I think one of the prerequisites is the knowledge that learning to trade is an ever-evolving process. Obviously some things had to change in order for you to continue. I'd be very interested to hear about your path from there to where you are currently; what you discovered along the way, the struggles you've had, and how you went about implementing the changes effectively to overcome them.

Too bad the show didn't fly, I'm old school too and still love to fire up some VH... although the Doors' "Break On Through" comes to mind here lol. I've always enjoyed picking the brains of people who are making things happen in their lives so apologies in advance.. you're a natural target

Thanks for taking the time to read my posts. I am going to continue and do a few more chapters that led me to now.
I like that idea of "Break on through to the other side". Apt metaphor...plus I love Jim Morrison and The Doors.

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  #1013 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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After the debacle in Vegas, I regrouped and deposited another substantial sum with MB Trading. Looking back at this period, I really didn't have a reliable system nor any real understanding of market conditions. Plus, when things got volatile in pairs like the Pound/Yen (one of my favorites because of the strong moves) suddenly the spread would widen..sometimes by an additional 10 or 15 pips. This meant when I saw my momentum scalp setups appearing and I entered a trade, I would sometimes be down as much as 15 pips at entry. Pretty hard to scalp like that. I would have a few good weeks and then foolishly think I was ready to trade more lots.

What I failed to realize is that I had basically no impulse control whatsoever. I never had known this about myself until I started trading real money. I would take two or three losses in a row and then just go Full Tilt. Taking trades..instantly losing, then immediately going in the opposite direction. It was a manic frenzy. Then, to try and recoup losses,, I would double up my lot size and often lose even more. I could start at 1 lot...go to two and end up trading 10 lots in the same session. It was insane!

It's sort of embarrassing to admit that I behaved like this, but it's the truth. I didn't really know how to trade and I had no idea that I had these behavioral issues when it came to trading. I literally pissed away hard earned money at a ridiculous pace.

Here is another excerpt from a 2008 Trading journal. There are many entries almost identical to this one. It shows a tormented person...in way over their head.. but not smart enough to realize it, yet.

Failure is not an option
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  #1014 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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These kinda things have happened to me as well thanks for sharing maybe one day I will have the courage to do the same


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  #1015 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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Just wanted to also say be proud of what you have become and know u are an inspiration to many many others including me especially if your past has been this way ...cheers


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  #1016 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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jokertrader View Post
These kinda things have happened to me as well thanks for sharing maybe one day I will have the courage to do the same


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Thank you. I rarely discuss these episodes, but I felt it might be good to share them on here. Maybe it might help someone else from doing some of the crazy things I did early on.

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 TradingOgre 
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lancelottrader View Post
After the debacle in Vegas, I regrouped and deposited another substantial sum with MB Trading. Looking back at this period, I really didn't have a reliable system nor any real understanding of market conditions. Plus, when things got volatile in pairs like the Pound/Yen (one of my favorites because of the strong moves) suddenly the spread would widen..sometimes by an additional 10 or 15 pips. This meant when I saw my momentum scalp setups appearing and I entered a trade, I would sometimes be down as much as 15 pips at entry. Pretty hard to scalp like that. I would have a few good weeks and then foolishly think I was ready to trade more lots.

What I failed to realize is that I had basically no impulse control whatsoever. I never had known this about myself until I started trading real money. I would take two or three losses in a row and then just go Full Tilt. Taking trades..instantly losing, then immediately going in the opposite direction. It was a manic frenzy. Then, to try and recoup losses,, I would double up my lot size and often lose even more. I could start at 1 lot...go to two and end up trading 10 lots in the same session. It was insane!

It's sort of embarrassing to admit that I behaved like this, but it's the truth. I didn't really know how to trade and I had no idea that I had these behavioral issues when it came to trading. I literally pissed away hard earned money at a ridiculous pace.

Here is another excerpt from a 2008 Trading journal. There are many entries almost identical to this one. It shows a tormented person...in way over their head.. but not smart enough to realize it, yet.

Ahhhh, 2008 what a year that was.... doubled my account one day..... margin called the next. LOL!! Nothing like 400:1 leverage and no experience.... Wild Wild West comes to mind for me.

Great stuff. Thanks for posting.

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  #1018 (permalink)
 bobc635 
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Yes, please continue.... I think most of us have had ups and downs, euphoria and depression....Thanks for putting it out there. I enjoy reading your posts and watching your videos...

Bob

lancelottrader View Post
I hate to use the cliche "My Journey"..but I'm not sure what else to call it. I am writing this to give some perspective of what it's been like for me over the past ten years or so. I guess this could also be a cautionary tale.
If someone asked me, even last year, what the biggest mistake I ever made in my life was, I would have to say, "Getting into trading." Having been pretty decent at most jobs or vocations I had, there was nothing that I could imagine doing for five years straight and be a total failure at. Yet, that's what my trading had been..A Failure..an Epic Disaster. So how did I get into this whole quagmire of torment ?
I had been selling Real Estate for several years and had recently enrolled in a local Film School. I went on to make some short films that were in Film festivals and I really enjoyed the creative process. While there, a fellow student convinced me to attend a seminar for a trading software called Forex Made Easy...Ok.. everybody stop laughing now!
I first was exposed to trading/investing when I was a kid, because my father had his own investment business. In our house in Palm beach, he had an office in the 1970's that had the early Trade quote computers. It seemed like I could tell when he was doing poorly because his moods would sour. Later on, through trusting a Bernie Madoff like partner, he lost a tremendous amount of money. So for me, I associated the markets with being an endeavor I wanted no part of.
Yet, there I was, after a 3 hour seminar, shelling out almost $4000.00 for this silly Wizetrade Red light/Green light software. Why? Well, of course the presenter was good at his job and it gave me a dream. Instead of selling Real Estate, I would trade my Forex Made Easy software for two hours a day. I would then spend the rest of my day writing my film scripts and make movies. Did I really investigate what trading was all about? Did I understand the statistics of failure amongst traders? No. I had never failed at anything I put my mind to. I would use the same principles of discipline and hard work that I always did and surely I would succeed at this too? Right?
I had no idea what I was getting into.
End of Part 1

Please let me know if you want me to continue with this little story. Thanks


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  #1019 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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bobc635 View Post
Yes, please continue.... I think most of us have had ups and downs, euphoria and depression....Thanks for putting it out there. I enjoy reading your posts and watching your videos...

Bob

Thank you

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  #1020 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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jokertrader View Post
Just wanted to also say be proud of what you have become and know u are an inspiration to many many others including me especially if your past has been this way ...cheers


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Thank you so much.

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  #1021 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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@lancelottrader, you can tell by the responses how much this has resonated with so many others, who have gone through something like what you have recounted (but maybe not quite so intense ).

I'm very grateful that you are willing to recount your experiences, especially since, as we can see from your current posts, you have broken on through to the other side. (Yeah, I remember when the Doors were new, too.)

I think this is what traders face, every one of us. It is gutsy to tell about it.

Thank you, sincerely and personally.

Bob.

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  #1022 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Hell @bobwest, you guys are only a few hours apart... you could get together, toss a couple back while listening to some old jams, talk trading and life in general It can be a lonely business for sure.

Winter FIO get-together in Okeechobee? LOL...

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  #1023 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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Rrrracer View Post
Hell @bobwest, you guys are only a few hours apart... you could get together, toss a couple back while listening to some old jams, talk trading and life in general It can be a lonely business for sure.

Winter FIO get-together in Okeechobee? LOL...

That would be so cool. I think i would love to meet both you guys.

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  #1024 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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bobwest View Post
@lancelottrader, you can tell by the responses how much this has resonated with so many others, who have gone through something like what you have recounted (but maybe not quite so intense ).

I'm very grateful that you are willing to recount your experiences, especially since, as we can see from your current posts, you have broken on through to the other side. (Yeah, I remember when the Doors were new, too.)

I think this is what traders face, every one of us. It is gutsy to tell about it.

Thank you, sincerely and personally.

Bob.

That means a lot to me. I hope we can meet up one day.

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 matthew28 
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Your Trading Journey Part 2 is a real stomach churner. I think most people reading it will be able to recall that shell-shocked feeling from some point in their own journey, though I imagine for most it wouldn't have been a fraction of what you probably felt after losing so much that fast.

I had to laugh when I looked at your journal entry picture from Part 3. I have similar hand written journals with lots of sentences in very large letters, or capitals, in the same vein, "You F'ing idiot", "You're so dumb", "Why can't you follow your rules" etc. Electronic journaling doesn't have that same spontaneous passion that you can see in handwritten journals. Scrolling up to increase the font size or change to bold just feels too contrived

Thanks for revealing some details of your trading history. Glad you're on the right track now.

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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 lancelottrader 
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matthew28 View Post
Your Trading Journey Part 2 is a real stomach churner. I think most people reading it will be able to recall that shell-shocked feeling from some point in their own journey, though I imagine for most it wouldn't have been a fraction of what you probably felt after losing so much that fast.

I had to laugh when I looked at your journal entry picture from Part 3. I have similar hand written journals with lots of sentences in very large letters, or capitals, in the same vein, "You F'ing idiot", "You're so dumb", "Why can't you follow your rules" etc. Electronic journaling doesn't have that same spontaneous passion that you can see in handwritten journals. Scrolling up to increase the font size or change to bold just feels too contrived

Thanks for revealing some details of your trading history. Glad you're on the right track now.

Yes..You're right. Somehow the handwriting (and mine is pretty hard to read and sloppy) conveys more of the feeling. lol

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 lancelottrader 
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Around 2010, I began to realize that I wasn’t getting anywhere with my trading and that my behavioral issues were a big part of that. Wizetrade had just come out with a new automated trading program called Command Trade. It basically allowed you to pick premade strategies or craft your own. Most of them relied on the same sort of moving average crossovers that their manual trading software used. There were additional conditions that one could add on. I ended up buying the software and committing myself fully into creating the best automated trading strategy that I possibly could. In reality, I was just slipping into a brand new Rabbit hole.
At the time, Wizetrade had these live online training sessions for the Command Trade software. The host showed his success rate with a pound/yen strategy he named, “Pound the Guppy.” Guppy was a nickname for the pound/yen currency pair. The strategy was extremely simple and relied on triggering an entry after some 1 hour ema crossovers had occurred. I spent the next three months modifying this strategy with my own conditions. Then I did months of testing, backtesting, sim trading with it.

The results I was seeing were fantastic ! The backtesting showed an extremely high win rate. My forward sim testing was also getting excellent results. It was probably the most euphoric time in my life. I felt I had truly “cracked the code” and that my I was well on my way to turning my PC into my own ATM machine. I would constantly take out my calculator and estimate my earnings with various win rates. Since my stop loss was roughly less than half my target, I would still earn a substantial sum even with only a 40% win rate. I had a friend that I had known since childhood and we would speak on the phone very often. When he commented on how upbeat and enthusiastic I sounded , I had to tell him about my amazing Auto trade strategy. My conviction and euphoria were so palpable, he wanted to be in on this as well. So, he bought a Command Trade program and opened up a $50,000.00 account with MB trading. He knew me since I was a kid and he knew I wasn’t bullshitting about how great my strategy was.

I started live trading with the program. I would attach the strategy before I went to bed, and sometime during the night (if the conditions were met) the strategy would enter a trade. It would either win 100 pips or lose about 40 . For reasons now that I can barely comprehend, I went from trading 1 lot to 10 lots in less than two months. I was totally convinced that this strategy was the true Holy Grail and couldn’t possibly fail. In other words, I was totally delusional! I deposited a whopping 100k into MB trading and started to attach a 10 lot strategy ($100 a pip). So, if the trade won, it would make $10, 000.00 and if it lost…it would be a $4000 hit. But my statistics were so great, I wasn’t worried at all…initially. Even worse, my friend did the same and attached the strategy to his account.
To make a long story short, the strategy started going through a losing streak. It lost eight nights in a row. That had never happened in any of my testing. My friend and I had just evaporated $32,000 each in eight days. I started to get worried. Yes, I knew there would be some drawdown, but I didn’t know how I would mentally react. All of a sudden , the doubts poured in and my euphoria and hope disappeared. How do I know this will work? Do I really know for sure this might not keep losing and burn through almost all of my $100,000.00 account? I decided to take a break on the live autotrading and do it on SIM for a while. I felt awful my friend also had lost over $30,000.00 because of me. The SIM results show that the strategy would have continued to lose consistently for the next several months.

How could this happen? Why did it work for so long and then go bad when I had bet everything on it? I was beyond devastated. I had lived in a fantasy world for six months and had never been happier. Now I didn’t even want to get out of bed. What I had failed to realize is that the pound/yen was in a strong downward trending mode for over a year. Of course the strategy worked perfectly during that time. The Financial crisis had cause it to selloff almost every night. By the time I got to trading 10 lots with it, the conditions changed. Suddenly the pound/yen got choppy every night and caused my strategy to fail. This was an exceedingly painful lesson.
To be continued

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 Pariah Carey 
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Damn. I've got Journey's Don't Stop Believin in my head as I read this.

Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Paying anything to roll the dice just one more time
Some will win, some will lose
Some are born to sing the blues
The movie never ends it goes on and on and on


If it weren't for people like who you used to be, markets wouldn't exist.

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 lancelottrader 
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Pariah Carey View Post
Damn. I've got Journey's Don't Stop Believin in my head as I read this.

Working hard to get my fill
Everybody wants a thrill
Paying anything to roll the dice just one more time
Some will win, some will lose
Some are born to sing the blues
The movie never ends it goes on and on and on


If it weren't for people like who you used to be, markets wouldn't exist.

Great song ! Those lyrics definitely fit my stories.

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 lancelottrader 
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Here are today's trades. I was a little hungover. Went to see the movie "Bohemian Rhapsody" about Freddie Mercury (Lead singer for the rock band Queen.. for my Millennial friends who never heard of him) and I had some Tequila at the theater lounge to get into the spirit of things.


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 lancelottrader 
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Still trying to figure out how I took a great day that was profitable and turned it into a losing session. Totally failed to read some bad market conditions that happened after 10 am est in NQ .



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 xplorer 
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lancelottrader View Post
Still trying to figure out how I took a great day that was profitable and turned it into a losing session. Totally failed to read some bad market conditions that happened after 10 am est in NQ .

Lance,

Thank you for your continued posting of these videos. I think only people who don't take trading seriously would say this session was embarassing.

Most of us struggle with keeping emotions and objectivity in check when in front of the trading screen. Some even do so when SIM trading.

As far as I can tell you appear to have an enviable track record, by most accounts. Enviable does not equal flawless in my view, in fact I strongly believe that mastery comes from many many iterations of highs and lows.

"The master has failed more times than the beginner has even tried" probably sounds like a platitude but in my view there's a fundamental truth in that, which is, as long as one keeps going, improvement - at any level - is always possible.

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 lancelottrader 
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Lance,

Thank you for your continued posting of these videos. I think only people who don't take trading seriously would say this session was embarassing.

Most of us struggle with keeping emotions and objectivity in check when in front of the trading screen. Some even do so when SIM trading.

As far as I can tell you appear to have an enviable track record, by most accounts. Enviable does not equal flawless in my view, in fact I strongly believe that mastery comes from many many iterations of highs and lows.

"The master has failed more times than the beginner has even tried" probably sounds like a platitude but in my view there's a fundamental truth in that, which is, as long as one keeps going, improvement - at any level - is always possible.

Thank you, I appreciate your comment. I guess what bothers me the most is that I have a procedure in place after a few losses in a row, and I failed to do it. The procedure calls for me to leave the room and do a few minutes of slow breathing (which calms down the pulse rate and adrenaline). Then I am supposed to return and objectively evaluate my emotional and cognitive state...Then, try to determine what prevailing market conditions I am seeing. Only after that is done, should I resume trading. I kind of skipped that today.

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Hi,

Any crude oil investors who are looking for at least 6 months or longer with live account results algo trading system, I'd recommend one of the iSystem called CIRUS RZ CRUDE OIL DRAKE and LAG_CRUDEOIL_12

https://cannon.isystems.com/System/PerformanceSheet?Id=21210

https://cannon.isystems.com/System/PerformanceSheet?Id=11082

PM with any questions about Cannon Trading (800) 454-9572 (310) 859-9572. Trading commodity futures, forex and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this post are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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 xplorer 
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lancelottrader View Post
I guess what bothers me the most is that I have a procedure in place after a few losses in a row, and I failed to do it. The procedure calls for me to leave the room and do a few minutes of slow breathing (which calms down the pulse rate and adrenaline). Then I am supposed to return and objectively evaluate my emotional and cognitive state...Then, try to determine what prevailing market conditions I am seeing. Only after that is done, should I resume trading. I kind of skipped that today.

Yep, I get it.

I think it has all to do with mental state. When in "cold and calculating" mental state, we plan and set up the procedures: we know we are supposed to have an 'emergency switch' to hit in case of issues.

Trouble is, when we are in "panic mode", whatever rule we had planned risks to be either forgotten or blatantly ignored. It's like there's a different person behind the wheel. I tend to equate this dichotomy to me being either outside or inside of a box. When outside, I can see all the labels and instructions stuck to the box (I am in the objective state of mind). But if I am in the heat of the moment, it means I am inside the box, so all the instructions are kind of invisible to me.

Not sure whether the allegory makes sense. There's a few posts illustrating this here and here.

Of course I don't mean to teach my grandmother to suck eggs, meaning, I am aware of your expertise level as well as your helpful videos about managing stress and emotions.

If anything, it's just more literature around the same thorny subject of trading psychology.

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 lancelottrader 
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xplorer View Post
Yep, I get it.

I think it has all to do with mental state. When in "cold and calculating" mental state, we plan and set up the procedures: we know we are supposed to have an 'emergency switch' to hit in case of issues.

Trouble is, when we are in "panic mode", whatever rule we had planned risks to be either forgotten or blatantly ignored. It's like there's a different person behind the wheel. I tend to equate this dichotomy to me being either outside or inside of a box. When outside, I can see all the labels and instructions stuck to the box (I am in the objective state of mind). But if I am in the heat of the moment, it means I am inside the box, so all the instructions are kind of invisible to me.

Not sure whether the allegory makes sense. There's a few posts illustrating this here and here.

Of course I don't mean to teach my grandmother to suck eggs, meaning, I am aware of your expertise level as well as your helpful videos about managing stress and emotions.

If anything, it's just more literature around the same thorny subject of trading psychology.

Thank you. Some very good points in your message. I appreciate them.

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 lancelottrader 
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After the automated Trading catastrophe, I went back to manual trading and decided to seek out something beyond the Wizetrade system I had been using. I started reading threads on a forum called Forex factory. I found that most of the posts had a similar pattern. Some forum memeber would announce his new "system"..complete with elaborate rules, bar types, charting and indicators. Usually several followers would make approving remarks and a few would sometimes be disparaging. Usually after a few weeks, the new posted "system" would undergo a series of changes. This would continue until the evolved system bore very little resemblance to the original. The one thing that remained constant was the lack of consistent results.

Then I found a thread that caught my eye..literally. I saw a series of Chart screenshots that were unlike anything I had ever seen. They were on a 1 second timeframe and were comprised of a multitude of bright colored moving averages of some sort, resembling a psychedelic kaleidescope. All the screenshots were of winning trades followed by cryptic comments like, "Charge on..the Universe awaits." When asked any question about his charts or methods, the person would write things like, "It's just like the noble Crane..who watches all the little fishes swim by..and waits for his perfect moment." Then usually some responses would be made by his very enthusiastic accolytes..like, "It works every time!" Follow the method and you can not fail!" If anyone dared question the Trading Sensei, the followers would rip into that person with venemous remarks. Naturally, I wasn't really buying into this whole Trading Master and his loyal disciples gimmick, at first...but I was intrigued.

I started experimenting with very small time frames and trying to duplicate some of the entries I saw on these multicolored charts. I saw some results but they were fairly uneven. Then, the Trade Master came out with this signal you could subscribe to. It would produce this red dot on the price line along with some sort of red and green bands on the bottom of the chart. When the dot, setup, and banding were in alignment, you would take an entry. To my complete surprise, the signal actually worked pretty well. I became a subscriber and traded the signal live and on Sim for two months. I was fairly pleased with my results. Then , one day, the signal was no longer available. I became rather upset and messaged the Guru and asked what happened to his excellent indicators ? He explained that the signal had been hacked and not to worry, he had come up with an even better indicator. Unfortunately, I failed to get the same results with the new one. I felt it was far inferior to his original. When I told him that, he said it was only because I didn't know how to use it properly. But..he informed me he was giving a seminar in Orlando in a few weeks at the low cost of only $2000.00. At that seminar, I would receive the proper training to use his new signal, learn about a new method as well, and there would be a guest presenter. I decided to pay the money, drive the 2 1/2 hours to Orlando and attend the seminar. In the next part, I will describe what happened there.

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 lancelottrader 
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Very happy with today's session. I was very focused and tuned into the price movement. Took some trades on CL after the Inventory report.


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 lamden 
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Trading that way is absolutely possible, that is my main source of income. Add in a little statistical analysis, and you've got my main trading method. I use no on-chart indicators, though.

The problem is that the reading the "pace" is not something everyone can do, it seems. I think this is a genetic trait, or maybe I am just a bad teacher.

It would be interesting if you could describe your entry and exits on a Renko chart as the bars are always lagging... That is one of the problems I have with Renko strategies. If that could be quantified, you could use it in an algorithm without getting false positives on your backtests.

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 cory 
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lamden View Post
...

he can't answer you

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  #1041 (permalink)
 lamden 
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cory View Post
he can't answer you


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 lancelottrader 
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cory View Post
he can't answer you

Oops..lol

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 Linds 
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lancelottrader View Post
After the automated Trading catastrophe, I went back to manual trading and decided to seek out something beyond the Wizetrade system I had been using. I started reading threads on a forum called Forex factory. I found that most of the posts had a similar pattern. Some forum memeber would announce his new "system"..complete with elaborate rules, bar types, charting and indicators. Usually several followers would make approving remarks and a few would sometimes be disparaging. Usually after a few weeks, the new posted "system" would undergo a series of changes. This would continue until the evolved system bore very little resemblance to the original. The one thing that remained constant was the lack of consistent results.

Then I found a thread that caught my eye..literally. I saw a series of Chart screenshots that were unlike anything I had ever seen. They were on a 1 second timeframe and were comprised of a multitude of bright colored moving averages of some sort, resembling a psychedelic kaleidescope. All the screenshots were of winning trades followed by cryptic comments like, "Charge on..the Universe awaits." When asked any question about his charts or methods, the person would write things like, "It's just like the noble Crane..who watches all the little fishes swim by..and waits for his perfect moment." Then usually some responses would be made by his very enthusiastic accolytes..like, "It works every time!" Follow the method and you can not fail!" If anyone dared question the Trading Sensei, the followers would rip into that person with venemous remarks. Naturally, I wasn't really buying into this whole Trading Master and his loyal disciples gimmick, at first...but I was intrigued.

I started experimenting with very small time frames and trying to duplicate some of the entries I saw on these multicolored charts. I saw some results but they were fairly uneven. Then, the Trade Master came out with this signal you could subscribe to. It would produce this red dot on the price line along with some sort of red and green bands on the bottom of the chart. When the dot, setup, and banding were in alignment, you would take an entry. To my complete surprise, the signal actually worked pretty well. I became a subscriber and traded the signal live and on Sim for two months. I was fairly pleased with my results. Then , one day, the signal was no longer available. I became rather upset and messaged the Guru and asked what happened to his excellent indicators ? He explained that the signal had been hacked and not to worry, he had come up with an even better indicator. Unfortunately, I failed to get the same results with the new one. I felt it was far inferior to his original. When I told him that, he said it was only because I didn't know how to use it properly. But..he informed me he was giving a seminar in Orlando in a few weeks at the low cost of only $2000.00. At that seminar, I would receive the proper training to use his new signal, learn about a new method as well, and there would be a guest presenter. I decided to pay the money, drive the 2 1/2 hours to Orlando and attend the seminar. In the next part, I will describe what happened there.


haha cant wait....I guess most of us have fallen for a scam of some kind at some early phase of our trading development

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 lancelottrader 
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Had a few frustrating moments today. Overall pretty good day.


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 Tap In 
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lancelottrader View Post
Had a few frustrating moments today. Overall pretty good day.

good trading on a day with not a lot of follow through

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 lancelottrader 
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Happy with the way the day and week ended up. Hope everyone has a great weekend.


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 lancelottrader 
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lancelottrader View Post
After the automated Trading catastrophe, I went back to manual trading and decided to seek out something beyond the Wizetrade system I had been using. I started reading threads on a forum called Forex factory. I found that most of the posts had a similar pattern. Some forum memeber would announce his new "system"..complete with elaborate rules, bar types, charting and indicators. Usually several followers would make approving remarks and a few would sometimes be disparaging. Usually after a few weeks, the new posted "system" would undergo a series of changes. This would continue until the evolved system bore very little resemblance to the original. The one thing that remained constant was the lack of consistent results.

Then I found a thread that caught my eye..literally. I saw a series of Chart screenshots that were unlike anything I had ever seen. They were on a 1 second timeframe and were comprised of a multitude of bright colored moving averages of some sort, resembling a psychedelic kaleidescope. All the screenshots were of winning trades followed by cryptic comments like, "Charge on..the Universe awaits." When asked any question about his charts or methods, the person would write things like, "It's just like the noble Crane..who watches all the little fishes swim by..and waits for his perfect moment." Then usually some responses would be made by his very enthusiastic accolytes..like, "It works every time!" Follow the method and you can not fail!" If anyone dared question the Trading Sensei, the followers would rip into that person with venemous remarks. Naturally, I wasn't really buying into this whole Trading Master and his loyal disciples gimmick, at first...but I was intrigued.

I started experimenting with very small time frames and trying to duplicate some of the entries I saw on these multicolored charts. I saw some results but they were fairly uneven. Then, the Trade Master came out with this signal you could subscribe to. It would produce this red dot on the price line along with some sort of red and green bands on the bottom of the chart. When the dot, setup, and banding were in alignment, you would take an entry. To my complete surprise, the signal actually worked pretty well. I became a subscriber and traded the signal live and on Sim for two months. I was fairly pleased with my results. Then , one day, the signal was no longer available. I became rather upset and messaged the Guru and asked what happened to his excellent indicators ? He explained that the signal had been hacked and not to worry, he had come up with an even better indicator. Unfortunately, I failed to get the same results with the new one. I felt it was far inferior to his original. When I told him that, he said it was only because I didn't know how to use it properly. But..he informed me he was giving a seminar in Orlando in a few weeks at the low cost of only $2000.00. At that seminar, I would receive the proper training to use his new signal, learn about a new method as well, and there would be a guest presenter. I decided to pay the money, drive the 2 1/2 hours to Orlando and attend the seminar. In the next part, I will describe what happened there.

I decided to take my girlfriend up with me to Orlando. The idea was that the day after the seminar we would go to Universal studios and do some fun things.
The seminar was held in a conference room inside the Embassy Suites hotel where we were staying. There was about ten of us altogether and most of the people there seemed like nice folks. The Guru entered the room with about three other guys and started everything fairly promptly.
The first part of the seminar was to be about how to use the new signal. He began with a long extended presentation of his credentials and resume. Apparently he was an extremely high level programmer, first and foremost. According to him, he was a Cyber security expert and an algo developer for the world's best hedge funds.
He said that most all of the top firms on Wall Street were using his technology, but he couldn't divulge who they were, due to his secrecy agreements he had signed. He said that all of us in the room should feel extremely fortunate to be able to learn from an individual such as himself. I noticed the two guys sitting next to him were nodding enthusiastically to everything word he spoke. They also would say, "Wow" after almost every sentence the guy finished. I deduced that these must be his disciples and were probably brought along to every seminar.

Finally he got around to talking about his new software and signal for Forex trading. He explained that he was constantly fending off hackers trying to conduct "industrial espionage" in order to steal his ingenious technology. They had manged to hack his original Forex signal that had worked so well for me. So the new signal was no longer available on charting like Ninja trader. Instead we had to go to a heavily encrypted webpage to get access. So you would have to look at the signal on one webpage and trade it on your own platform. He said basically the only technique required was to take all signals during your session. Then he said there would be a short break to be followed by a guest presenter. I was extremely disappointed. I paid $2000.00 for some special training and all he said was to take every signal.
I began to ask questions, especially since the signals were generating tons of losing trades for me. I asked, "How can you take every signal? Some of them can be up against support and resistance? What if it's before a news event? Certainly it doesn't make sense to take every signal ?" The disciples glared at me. How dare I question the Master?
He said the only way the math works out with wins or losses is to take every signal within a two hour time slot. Due to the fact that there was no way to backtest the signal ,since it only worked in real time, one had to have absolute faith in this guy and his software. I had some trouble with that.

After the break was over, it was time for the Guest presenter. I assumed that this was some sort of trading expert and maybe I'd learn more from this person. The guest presenter began with a Powerpoint slide presentation. The first slide was of a rather obese fellow, wearing nothing but striped boxer shorts and a glum expression on his face.
I looked around the room and saw I wasn't the only person with a confused look on their face. Then more slides of the rotund guy ..all without a shirt and always looking depressed. One guy in the back of the room uttered, "What the f..k is this?" Then the "guest presenter" explained that these were his before pics and thanks to this marvelous protein powder he was taking, he now was 50 pounds lighter. He claimed if we acted today, we could buy his miracle powder for a ridiculously low price. Even better, he claimed, we could also be distributors.
I was in shock. I paid $2000.00 to be suckered into a Network marketing pitch instead of a Forex seminar ? What the hell was this?

to be continued...

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 Rrrracer 
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Wow what a sham, this story keeps getting better and better lol... unbelievable.

A little old school for your weekend man, enjoy


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 lancelottrader 
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Rrrracer View Post
Wow what a sham, this story keeps getting better and better lol... unbelievable.

A little old school for your weekend man, enjoy


Thanks! I remember this video well, on MTV when it came out. Good stuff.

Have fun too, this weekend.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I've been away for a long time but the forum still sends me updates on your thread. Finally clicked over and took a look. Great thread so far and thanks for posting your journey. I think it is beneficial for people to read about others that have made the same mistakes or greater than they have and that it is possible to succeed.

Anyway, good thread and keep it up!

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I've been away for a long time but the forum still sends me updates on your thread. Finally clicked over and took a look. Great thread so far and thanks for posting your journey. I think it is beneficial for people to read about others that have made the same mistakes or greater than they have and that it is possible to succeed.

Anyway, good thread and keep it up!

Great to see you back!

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Great to see you back!

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Yep, don't have time for much these days but as time allows I will visit now and then.

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 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've been away for a long time but the forum still sends me updates on your thread. Finally clicked over and took a look. Great thread so far and thanks for posting your journey. I think it is beneficial for people to read about others that have made the same mistakes or greater than they have and that it is possible to succeed.

Anyway, good thread and keep it up!

Good to see you. You were always one of my favorites on here. Thanks for saying hi.

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 Devil Man 
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lancelottrader View Post
I decided to take my girlfriend up with me to Orlando. The idea was that the day after the seminar we would go to Universal studios and do some fun things.
The seminar was held in a conference room inside the Embassy Suites hotel where we were staying. There was about ten of us altogether and most of the people there seemed like nice folks. The Guru entered the room with about three other guys and started everything fairly promptly.
The first part of the seminar was to be about how to use the new signal. He began with a long extended presentation of his credentials and resume. Apparently he was an extremely high level programmer, first and foremost. According to him, he was a Cyber security expert and an algo developer for the world's best hedge funds.
He said that most all of the top firms on Wall Street were using his technology, but he couldn't divulge who they were, due to his secrecy agreements he had signed. He said that all of us in the room should feel extremely fortunate to be able to learn from an individual such as himself. I noticed the two guys sitting next to him were nodding enthusiastically to everything word he spoke. They also would say, "Wow" after almost every sentence the guy finished. I deduced that these must be his disciples and were probably brought along to every seminar.

Finally he got around to talking about his new software and signal for Forex trading. He explained that he was constantly fending off hackers trying to conduct "industrial espionage" in order to steal his ingenious technology. They had manged to hack his original Forex signal that had worked so well for me. So the new signal was no longer available on charting like Ninja trader. Instead we had to go to a heavily encrypted webpage to get access. So you would have to look at the signal on one webpage and trade it on your own platform. He said basically the only technique required was to take all signals during your session. Then he said there would be a short break to be followed by a guest presenter. I was extremely disappointed. I paid $2000.00 for some special training and all he said was to take every signal.
I began to ask questions, especially since the signals were generating tons of losing trades for me. I asked, "How can you take every signal? Some of them can be up against support and resistance? What if it's before a news event? Certainly it doesn't make sense to take every signal ?" The disciples glared at me. How dare I question the Master?
He said the only way the math works out with wins or losses is to take every signal within a two hour time slot. Due to the fact that there was no way to backtest the signal ,since it only worked in real time, one had to have absolute faith in this guy and his software. I had some trouble with that.

After the break was over, it was time for the Guest presenter. I assumed that this was some sort of trading expert and maybe I'd learn more from this person. The guest presenter began with a Powerpoint slide presentation. The first slide was of a rather obese fellow, wearing nothing but striped boxer shorts and a glum expression on his face.
I looked around the room and saw I wasn't the only person with a confused look on their face. Then more slides of the rotund guy ..all without a shirt and always looking depressed. One guy in the back of the room uttered, "What the f..k is this?" Then the "guest presenter" explained that these were his before pics and thanks to this marvelous protein powder he was taking, he now was 50 pounds lighter. He claimed if we acted today, we could buy his miracle powder for a ridiculously low price. Even better, he claimed, we could also be distributors.
I was in shock. I paid $2000.00 to be suckered into a Network marketing pitch instead of a Forex seminar ? What the hell was this?

to be continued...

WOW!...Sorry to hear @lancelottrader!...we've all been in the same situation at some time in our lives, thanks for the honesty and willingness to share your experience.

-Btw...in my day I left plenty of guys laying in the gutter for a hell of a lot less than what has happened to you! lol.

cheers, good trading

Johnny

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 lancelottrader 
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Devil Man View Post
WOW!...Sorry to hear @lancelottrader!...we've all been in the same situation at some time in our lives, thanks for the honesty and willingness to share your experience.

-Btw...in my day I left plenty of guys laying in the gutter for a hell of a lot less than what has happened to you! lol.

cheers, good trading

Johnny

Thank you. I was pretty ticked off that day at the seminar, that's for sure .

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 lancelottrader 
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From today. I failed at one point to recognize some choppy conditions and gave back all my profits. I kept going and it turned out well.


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 lancelottrader 
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Tumultuous day so far ! Price shooting up hard..then switching directions a few seconds later. Did well, considering.



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 lancelottrader 
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Did the video a little different today. Just scrolled through the session quickly with little commentary which made for a shorter video. I think it also reveals the market movement better since there is no pausing or anything like that.


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 lancelottrader 
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This was a combination, early on, of bad trading mixed with choppy conditions. Did awful initially. Was $850 down. Managed to do better as the day went on. So..I'm not happy with my early trading, but pretty pleased with how I bounced back.


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 silenceit 
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Hi there

Im posting this 1min CL chart from today.


Could anyone spare some words to explain in terms of market and limit buy and sell orders,bid and ask orders, short covering, etc what happened at A, B, and C?
(Considering also that we are close to roll over)

Regards

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Name:	28-11-15 CL 1min.bmp
Views:	130
Size:	2.69 MB
ID:	258979  
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 lancelottrader 
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silenceit View Post
Hi there

Im posting this 1min CL chart from today.


Could anyone spare some words to explain in terms of market and limit buy and sell orders,bid and ask orders, short covering, etc what happened at A, B, and C?
(Considering also that we are close to roll over)

Regards

Don't have any idea exactly in terms of orders what happened..nor do I concern myself with that while I trade. I do know we had the Oil Inventory report at 11:00 est and I made a 30 tick trade a few minutes after it was released. I had already moved my stop to breakeven here. If anyone else knows the answer to his question, feel free to chime in.

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 xplorer 
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silenceit View Post
Hi there

Im posting this 1min CL chart from today.


Could anyone spare some words to explain in terms of market and limit buy and sell orders,bid and ask orders, short covering, etc what happened at A, B, and C?
(Considering also that we are close to roll over)

Regards

From the picture it looks like you want to understand why price moved considerably but Cum Delta didn't.

Cum Delta measures volume of [buy - sell] market orders. If there's overall more sell volume Cum Delta is negative, otherwise it's positive.

For price to go up that way without Cum Delta moving significantly there must have been a comparable volume of buy and sell market orders but at the same time there must have been a combination of fewer limit orders on the ask and more limit orders on the bid which were absorbing the sell market orders.

That's my interpretation anyway.


EDIT: By the way, rollover was today.

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 lancelottrader 
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xplorer View Post
From the picture it looks like you want to understand why price moved considerably but Cum Delta didn't.

Cum Delta measures volume of [buy - sell] market orders. If there's overall more sell volume Cum Delta is negative, otherwise it's positive.

For price to go up that way without Cum Delta moving significantly there must have been a comparable volume of buy and sell market orders but at the same time there must have been a combination of fewer limit orders on the ask and more limit orders on the bid which were absorbing the sell market orders.

That's my interpretation anyway.


EDIT: By the way, rollover was today.

Well, I guess I learned something here. Thanks for the explanation.

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 silenceit 
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Xplorer,

thank you for the time you took to come up with an explanation, really appreciated it.

But also, shouldn't roll over be tomorrow? My Sierrachart automatically rolls over and today I had to manually switch it because of the very low volume on Z8.

Regards

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 josh 
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silenceit View Post
Hi there

Im posting this 1min CL chart from today.


Could anyone spare some words to explain in terms of market and limit buy and sell orders,bid and ask orders, short covering, etc what happened at A, B, and C?
(Considering also that we are close to roll over)

Regards

It's so funny that you posted this. As I opened the chart today I saw that the Dec contract was very thin and quickly realized that the Jan had taken over (250K vol compared to 120K or something). As I compared them, I noticed that cumulative delta pained a very different picture. So at that moment I took two screen shots, to make the point that cumulative delta, on the whole, simply isn't that effective.

Even on a single stock, you have derivatives like options. On a futures contract like NQ, you have various ETFs like QQQ, inverse ETFs, various futures contracts, single stocks that comprise it, etc.-- so looking at a particular buy/sell flow really is only looking at part of the order flow, and is thus kind of useless in isolation. A fund may be selling QQQ and buying NQ at the same time.

Futures are used heavily to hedge, which means that many times "sell activity" is directly counter to a larger long position in single stocks. Airlines hedge against crude prices rising by buying futures. Is it a directional bet? No -- they want crude to fall, and hope it does so. So a big buy from an airline may be matched with a directional bet short by a fund, and the two have the same goal, but are positioned opposite! In short, it's complex.

At rollover, imagine a fund which is net short and wishes to stay short by buying Dec and selling Jan. This looks like "opposite" activity, but if they use limit orders on both sides, there's no net change in their position. Or, imagine they limit buy their Dec contracts and simultaneously hit Jan on the bid to sell. That's all volume transacted at the bid, so it looks like heavy selling in both contracts, but with no net change for the fund.

Cumulative delta as a divergence tool is not effective for the simple reason that doing so would necessitate parties always using the same order type, and it simply doesn't happen that way. I use it as a key indicator of short term momentum shifts (and today purposely ignored it due to exactly the rollover issues mentioned above), but beyond that, I do not consider it personally.

I've attached the two screenshots I took this morning to show just how different a picture the same indicator can paint on two different contracts.

-Josh

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 silenceit 
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Josh,

thank you very much for replying to my post.

Yes, I agree to your thoughts on CV divergences, in the sense that one shouldnt blind take any divergence. I do use it to check if higher highs are backed up by higher ask volumes (similarly for lower lows with bid volume). If I see a lower high with way too much ask volume or even bid vol>ask vol then that is something that goes against my idea of flow and I want to steer away from, like todays action.

Thank you again Josh.


Regards

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 xplorer 
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silenceit View Post
Xplorer,

thank you for the time you took to come up with an explanation, really appreciated it.

But also, shouldn't roll over be tomorrow? My Sierrachart automatically rolls over and today I had to manually switch it because of the very low volume on Z8.

Regards

In most months CL rollover takes place on the 18th or earlier if the 18th falls on a w.e., but I too was surprised to see it roll over yesterday.

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 lancelottrader 
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No commentary on this one. Just a quick rundown of today's trades.


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 lancelottrader 
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Here are today's trades. Think it went well.


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 lancelottrader 
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These are the type of days that work well for me.Price had some strong moves and was fairly easy to figure out.


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 noobforlyfe 
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lancelottrader View Post
These are the type of days that work well for me.Price had some strong moves and was fairly easy to figure out.


As always your efforts and pre market prep make it look super easy and flawless.

I'm genuinely happy seeing you kill it mate! Getting jealous here whenever i trade and average around 300 to 600 and call it a day, and then see you pull out much bigger numbers . But this is years of work and screen time exp. that is shining through.

Keep killing it Lance! You deserve it after everything

John

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 lancelottrader 
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noobforlyfe View Post
As always your efforts and pre market prep make it look super easy and flawless.

I'm genuinely happy seeing you kill it mate! Getting jealous here whenever i trade and average around 300 to 600 and call it a day, and then see you pull out much bigger numbers . But this is years of work and screen time exp. that is shining through.

Keep killing it Lance! You deserve it after everything

John

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Thank you, John. I'm surprised I somehow stuck with this after all the years of failure. Any "Sane" person would have quit long ago.

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  #1073 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
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Thanks for allowing us to view your trades and your mindset.

I trade in a similar fashion but sometimes see things differently.

I saw a tweet today from Brian Shannon that sums it up perfectly.

Quoting 
I don't like to argue about an opinion,
the market will always tell us who was right or wrong.
We can have differing views on a stock and both be right if we trade different time frames


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 lancelottrader 
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This will probably be the last video I post for a while. Some schedule changes are going to give me much less free time. Here are today's trades. I hope these have been a bit helpful.


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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
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I just found this thread and I'm still making my way through and so far it's been very helpful. THANK YOU VERY MUCH for taking so much time over the years to contribute to this!!!

I can relate to so many things you have said here regarding trading in general and the learning process and typical mistakes people make. I've made them (and I might continue to make them) but my actual dollars lost is pretty small; I have lost a lot of time though.

I know I could write pages and pages of comments but I'll keep it short. I know your efforts have helped many people, I want you to know that you can add yet another to that list.

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 lancelottrader 
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Comeback King View Post
I just found this thread and I'm still making my way through and so far it's been very helpful. THANK YOU VERY MUCH for taking so much time over the years to contribute to this!!!

I can relate to so many things you have said here regarding trading in general and the learning process and typical mistakes people make. I've made them (and I might continue to make them) but my actual dollars lost is pretty small; I have lost a lot of time though.

I know I could write pages and pages of comments but I'll keep it short. I know your efforts have helped many people, I want you to know that you can add yet another to that list.

Hi there. I sincerely appreciate your comments and the fact you took the time to go through some of my thread. It's definitely a long one with lots of ups and downs..
It's because of messages like yours that I keep coming back on here.
Thank you,
Lance

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 lancelottrader 
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Had some extra time today, so I put together another video. This is from today's trades.


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 lancelottrader 
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I have been trading Nq seriously for almost two years after having mainly traded CL before that. It has been sort of a love/hate relationship, but things have definitely improved in the last few months. Here a few points and observations that I have gathered from my efforts.
1. Nq is one of the trickiest and most difficult instruments to trade. Now, there are those with large accounts who can use stops with 100's of ticks that would disagree with me. But for an average retail trader using 20-40 tick stops, NQ can eat up your account quickly. Why? Because it can convince you that it is moving in one direction with extreme strength ..only to reverse equally strong in the opposite direction. Then, when you think the new direction is the right direction..it will fool you again, and reverse.
2. NQ reacts very strongly to minor areas of support and resistance. If these are not taken into consideration, you will find yourself taking lots of heat quickly or being stopped out. I have learned that price can form these small areas of S/R in real time and are not always easily visible on higher time frames. These areas serve as barriers. Price can often get through them if there is sufficient order flow, but..not usually without some serious bounces first. Meaning, for example, you can be in a trade and see no obvious support and resistance in the way. Then you hit one of these areas (that I find on my 2 range chart and mark up) and suddenly price bounces the opposite way 20 to 30 ticks in seconds. Sometimes it takes price two or three times to penetrate these barriers. What I try to do is wait for those little mini breakouts and when price action tells me the odds are good it will break, I enter the trade.
3. Some days, NQ can have price movement that is almost impossible to trade. There are days or at least extended periods of time during a session where virtually every trade you enter will lose. Price can move in a choppy, chaotic manner. This can be caused by some sort of turmoil or it can be a Fed guy talking..or just indecision on the part of big traders. If you aren't able to spot these moments and keep your finger off the trigger, you will have serious issues. One thing I mention that I do is to engage in some sort of self talk or verbal commentary. I am always describing at any given moment what type of price action I think I am seeing. By saying it out loud, it keeps me in the moment and centered..instead of my thoughts silently going all over the place. Regardless of what methods you use, it's imperative to recognize these adverse conditions before you end up having a disasterous day.

Now these tips can apply to any instrument..but I feel they most show themselves on NQ, due to it's innate volatility.

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 josh 
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lancelottrader View Post
Now these tips can apply to any instrument..but I feel they most show themselves on NQ, due to it's innate volatility.

NDX being composed of tech stocks is naturally a bit more volatile (but not more so than CL, see OVX vs VXN).

The question for anyone trading NQ (or anything really) is: how much of this is truly "innate," and how much is due to the current market regime, which has been in effect since February of this year?

Volatility WILL settle down eventually, whether it's next month or next year, and VIX will return to low teens, as the market continues its upward drift as it always does, even if it goes lower first. So, having a plan in place to handle that regime change is essential to long-term survival, IMO (planning for fewer breakouts, more chop, tighter ranges, etc.)

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 lancelottrader 
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josh View Post
NDX being composed of tech stocks is naturally a bit more volatile (but not more so than CL, see OVX vs VXN).

The question for anyone trading NQ (or anything really) is: how much of this is truly "innate," and how much is due to the current market regime, which has been in effect since February of this year?

Volatility WILL settle down eventually, whether it's next month or next year, and VIX will return to low teens, as the market continues its upward drift as it always does, even if it goes lower first. So, having a plan in place to handle that regime change is essential to long-term survival, IMO (planning for fewer breakouts, more chop, tighter ranges, etc.)

Maybe volatility isn't quite the correct term, but since I've been watching NQ the last few years, I find it moves at most times much faster than CL. I can go into a CL trade most of time..and it can take quite a while before it makes 20 ticks or so. Extreme patience seems to be required often. Nq, on the other hand goes 20 -40 ticks in a few seconds. I find it to be much different.
Even if things slow down, it will still be fairly easy for me to get 20 to 30 tick pops throughout the session. I have gone back several years scrolling through charts and my system would have pretty close to the same wins as I have now.

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 chipps1983 
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lancelottrader View Post
I have been trading Nq seriously for almost two years after having mainly traded CL before that. It has been sort of a love/hate relationship, but things have definitely improved in the last few months. Here a few points and observations that I have gathered from my efforts.
1. Nq is one of the trickiest and most difficult instruments to trade. Now, there are those with large accounts who can use stops with 100's of ticks that would disagree with me. But for an average retail trader using 20-40 tick stops, NQ can eat up your account quickly. Why? Because it can convince you that it is moving in one direction with extreme strength ..only to reverse equally strong in the opposite direction. Then, when you think the new direction is the right direction..it will fool you again, and reverse.
2. NQ reacts very strongly to minor areas of support and resistance. If these are not taken into consideration, you will find yourself taking lots of heat quickly or being stopped out. I have learned that price can form these small areas of S/R in real time and are not always easily visible on higher time frames. These areas serve as barriers. Price can often get through them if there is sufficient order flow, but..not usually without some serious bounces first. Meaning, for example, you can be in a trade and see no obvious support and resistance in the way. Then you hit one of these areas (that I find on my 2 range chart and mark up) and suddenly price bounces the opposite way 20 to 30 ticks in seconds. Sometimes it takes price two or three times to penetrate these barriers. What I try to do is wait for those little mini breakouts and when price action tells me the odds are good it will break, I enter the trade.
3. Some days, NQ can have price movement that is almost impossible to trade. There are days or at least extended periods of time during a session where virtually every trade you enter will lose. Price can move in a choppy, chaotic manner. This can be caused by some sort of turmoil or it can be a Fed guy talking..or just indecision on the part of big traders. If you aren't able to spot these moments and keep your finger off the trigger, you will have serious issues. One thing I mention that I do is to engage in some sort of self talk or verbal commentary. I am always describing at any given moment what type of price action I think I am seeing. By saying it out loud, it keeps me in the moment and centered..instead of my thoughts silently going all over the place. Regardless of what methods you use, it's imperative to recognize these adverse conditions before you end up having a disasterous day.

Now these tips can apply to any instrument..but I feel they most show themselves on NQ, due to it's innate volatility.

Thank you for writing much in detail about. I have been watching and trading NQ for 3 years. But recently, I realized I can't take its volatility anymore and stopped NQ and moved to YM and ES.

--------
Chipps
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 josh 
Georgia, US
 
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lancelottrader View Post
Maybe volatility isn't quite the correct term, but since I've been watching NQ the last few years, I find it moves at most times much faster than CL. I can go into a CL trade most of time..and it can take quite a while before it makes 20 ticks or so. Extreme patience seems to be required often. Nq, on the other hand goes 20 -40 ticks in a few seconds. I find it to be much different.
Even if things slow down, it will still be fairly easy for me to get 20 to 30 tick pops throughout the session. I have gone back several years scrolling through charts and my system would have pretty close to the same wins as I have now.

It might be a worthwhile endeavor to quantify this on an intraday basis -- in my copious free time next week I may see what I come up with.

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 Scalpingtrader 
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lancelottrader View Post
Had some extra time today, so I put together another video. This is from today's trades.


Your remark at the end reminds me of what I was reading somewhere about Taxi drivers, let’s call it the bad weather fallacy for now.

The text was basically stating that what many Taxi drivers typically do is that they have a daily goal in terms of $ they want to make before calling it a day. Now what happens is that on days where not much is going on, like e.g. sunny days where people bike or walk, they spend hours and hours waiting to finally get their daily number.
On the „good“ days (for the taxi driver anyways) e.g. rainy days or cold days or what have you, they get to their number fairly quick and take the rest of the day off after driving only 2 or 3 hours instead of continuing to drive for a full „session“.

Longterm result? The average $ earned per hour is much lower than it could be.

Or stated otherwise, they could
a) make more money with the same effort
b) make the same money with much less effort
just by shifting their, well... shifts.

Plus this way they only ever get to enjoy piss weather

Imo this translates perfectly to trading - you “just” got to learn recognizing those bad sessions early on...

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 lancelottrader 
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chipps1983 View Post
Thank you for writing much in detail about. I have been watching and trading NQ for 3 years. But recently, I realized I can't take its volatility anymore and stopped NQ and moved to YM and ES.

I don't blame you. I have quite a few setups that work on other instruments..but really only about one technique that works for me on NQ. I sometimes like YM better when it's moving well, like today.

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 Brandenton 
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lancelottrader View Post
I don't blame you. I have quite a few setups that work on other instruments..but really only about one technique that works for me on NQ. I sometimes like YM better when it's moving well, like today.

I can relate as well. I've Just recently been dabbling with the NQ, but my PNL swing is just out of this world. My bread and butter has been with YM and plan on sticking with it until my account is big enough to handle stops that can support the risk I need to play with that monster.

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 lancelottrader 
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Video of today's trades.


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 lancelottrader 
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Had a pretty good session.


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cryptocrazy
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Great videos ive subscribed and started reading the entire thread. The logical forex site seems to be down is there any suggestions you have for replacement of those indicators to emulate the same setup?

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 lancelottrader 
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cryptocrazy View Post
Great videos ive subscribed and started reading the entire thread. The logical forex site seems to be down is there any suggestions you have for replacement of those indicators to emulate the same setup?

Thank you very much. I appreciate it. I'm not sure why the Logical Forex site is down, but when I chatted with the owner a few months back, he said he was trying hard to have a version for Ninja 8. It could have something to do with that.
I think you can find an indicator on Ninja called Swing..in the drop down list. That is a little similar to the magnet lines drawn in Logical Forex. Also the black spine I refer to on the 2 range chart can be sort of duplicated by plotting a 75 period ema .

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 lancelottrader 
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Did well today, although I had a few difficulties early on. The big keys for me now is not to get upset over being up then losing back my profits. In the past, that really disturbed me so I would often quit a session when I was only a little up. Now I trade generally for at least two hours and just keep taking what I think are good setups. The math is working out much better that way.


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  #1091 (permalink)
 Rrrracer 
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Way to stick with it bro, I hate those give-it-all-back days LOL... nice job.

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cryptocrazy
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lancelottrader View Post
Thank you very much. I appreciate it. I'm not sure why the Logical Forex site is down, but when I chatted with the owner a few months back, he said he was trying hard to have a version for Ninja 8. It could have something to do with that.
I think you can find an indicator on Ninja called Swing..in the drop down list. That is a little similar to the magnet lines drawn in Logical Forex. Also the black spine I refer to on the 2 range chart can be sort of duplicated by plotting a 75 period ema .

Awesome I will try that out, sorry to ask another question but what about the indicator below the main chart, is that a form of CCI?

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 lancelottrader 
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cryptocrazy View Post
Awesome I will try that out, sorry to ask another question but what about the indicator below the main chart, is that a form of CCI?

I don't really know for sure..I assume it's similar. To be honest I don't really look at it much. It basically is supposed to be going in the same immediate direction as price. I could probably get rid of it and not notice a difference.

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 lancelottrader 
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Decided to give the rate statement reaction a shot. Ended up with my biggest winning day ever.


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 jokertrader 
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Awesome good motivation for many


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cryptocrazy
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lancelottrader View Post
I don't really know for sure..I assume it's similar. To be honest I don't really look at it much. It basically is supposed to be going in the same immediate direction as price. I could probably get rid of it and not notice a difference.

Ah, I see, i thought you might use it as entry confirmation or target setting. Thanks again for your reply and have a great Christmas with your family.

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 lancelottrader 
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cryptocrazy View Post
Ah, I see, i thought you might use it as entry confirmation or target setting. Thanks again for your reply and have a great Christmas with your family.

Thank you very much. I wish the same to you and your family as well. Merry Christmas.

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 lancelottrader 
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jokertrader View Post
Awesome good motivation for many


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Thank you very much.

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 MaxFutures 
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Your persistence and hard work are paying off. Congratulations on your successes. Max.

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 lancelottrader 
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