Gold & the DCOT Report - futures io
futures io futures trading



Gold & the DCOT Report


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one ron99 with 5 posts (12 thanks)
    2. looks_two ElChacal with 5 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 EmptyEternity with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    1. trending_up 2,249 views
    2. thumb_up 12 thanks given
    3. group 2 followers
    1. forum 12 posts
    2. attach_file 3 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Gold & the DCOT Report

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 3,049 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 948 given, 5,649 received

The weekly Disaggregated Futures-Only Commitments of Traders (DCOT) report came out today. It covers the time from Aug 3rd to and including Aug 9th. Gold futures increased almost $100 in that time frame.

The Commercial traders decreased their net short position by about 10,000 contracts. They got out of 4,300 shorts and added 5,600 longs.

The Index traders decreased their net short position by 28,300 contracts. They got out of 22,900 shorts and added 5,500 longs.

These 2 categories of traders contributed to the price increase with their bailing on their short positions.

What did the Money Managers (Hedge Funds) do? They dropped, and probably took a profit on, 36,500 longs! They added 870 shorts.

Other Reportables decreased their net long position by 6,200 because they added 10,200 shorts and added only 3,900 longs.

The only group that added net longs was the Non-Reportable (small specs) category. They added 6,200 longs and added 1,000 shorts.

So you could say that most of the reason for the large Gold price increase was probably due to large institutions bailing on short positions rather than traders adding longs.

OI for Gold futures decreased by 19,200 in this time period.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:

Journal Challenge February 2021 results (so far):
Competing for $1500 in prizes from Topstep
looks_oneSBtrader82 's Trading Journalby SBtrader82
(151 thanks from 28 posts)
looks_twoJust BEING a Trader: Letting Go!!by iqgod
(110 thanks from 31 posts)
looks_3Wisdom is Emptinessby Mtype
(66 thanks from 24 posts)
looks_4Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(31 thanks from 15 posts)
looks_5Journal for peanuts1956by peanuts1956
(23 thanks from 13 posts)
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker: IB / IB
Trading: SPY, QQQ
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 408 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 470 given, 276 received


@ron99 I know this is an old thread and I am on the late late night show. Anyway I am trying to understand what setup you are looking for in the DCOT.

1) Is it a decrease in OI? If so, is there a percentage you take into consideration?
2) Once you notice the OI decrease what group do you pay more attention to (Producer/Swap/MMoney)? It would seem that the Hedge funds could have hold their positions for a little longer based on your example...
3) Do you look for a decrease in the Shorts from the Producers/Merchants(this are the commercials right?)? Similar to what Larry Williams proposes.

Any advice you can give me on Fundamentals is very much appreciated. I feel I am a little savvy on the technicals but the Fundamentals is new ground for me and it is hard to "backtest".

Thank you!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 3,049 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 948 given, 5,649 received


ElChacal View Post
@ron99 I know this is an old thread and I am on the late late night show. Anyway I am trying to understand what setup you are looking for in the DCOT.

1) Is it a decrease in OI? If so, is there a percentage you take into consideration?

I look for the change in net position by each group. Mainly Specs (Managed Money)

2) Once you notice the OI decrease what group do you pay more attention to (Producer/Swap/MMoney)? It would seem that the Hedge funds could have hold their positions for a little longer based on your example...

Managed Money.

3) Do you look for a decrease in the Shorts from the Producers/Merchants(this are the commercials right?)? Similar to what Larry Williams proposes.

I haven't seen a big correlation between what Producers/Merchants (Commercials) do and price.

Any advice you can give me on Fundamentals is very much appreciated. I feel I am a little savvy on the technicals but the Fundamentals is new ground for me and it is hard to "backtest".

Thank you!

GC made a multi-year high a few weeks after that post.

These are DCOT futures only reports. Managed Money, specs and funds are the same group.




Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker: IB / IB
Trading: SPY, QQQ
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 408 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 470 given, 276 received

@ron99 I assume that for Financial Futures, you look at net change on Leveraged Money?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 3,049 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 948 given, 5,649 received

I don't look at DCOT for that at all.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker: IB / IB
Trading: SPY, QQQ
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 408 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 470 given, 276 received

@ron99
If not the COT, what do you mainly look at to trade indices such as ES, YM, NQ / currency futures / bonds?

Again, thanks!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 3,049 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 948 given, 5,649 received

I have only traded the ES. Never any of the rest.

I mainly sell far out of the money options so I don't look at fundamentals much for ES. If I am selling options on other commodities I look at fundamentals a lot. I never look at technicals.

I am not a typical trader.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Cleveland Ohio USA
 
 
Posts: 1 since May 2015
Thanks: 3 given, 0 received


ron99 View Post
I have only traded the ES. Never any of the rest.

I mainly sell far out of the money options so I don't look at fundamentals much for ES. If I am selling options on other commodities I look at fundamentals a lot. I never look at technicals.

I am not a typical trader.

do you sell by specific delta, std, or percentage otm? What dte time frame do you like to use?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 3,049 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 948 given, 5,649 received


Check out the last few pages of this thread to see my strategy.

https://futures.io/options-cfd-trading/12309-selling-options-futures-416.html#post493968

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker: IB / IB
Trading: SPY, QQQ
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 408 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 470 given, 276 received

The last time Commercials were Net Long was in 2001 if I am looking at the current DCOT right...

The problem I have is the problem I always have with COT, that I have never been able to backtest any of it.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 457 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 17 given, 398 received

Yes, this is very interesting and I saw it as well.

Last time this happened (2001), Gold started his huge multi year rally from around $ 250.-- to $ 1,900.--+


Commercials are now also NET Long in Silver and this is the first time EVER (and I've data back to 1983)

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker: IB / IB
Trading: SPY, QQQ
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 
Posts: 408 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 470 given, 276 received

I am not really a gold trader but took my chances last night and went Long 1 MGC at 1195.31. Only $10/point so it is not a big risk.

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Commodities > Gold & the DCOT Report


Last Updated on September 17, 2018


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1500 prizes from Topstep!

February
 

Identifying Setups & Targets Using Profile Charts w/Trevor & Tradovate

Feb 25
 

Battlestations! Show us your trading desk - $1,500 in prizes!

March
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts