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Silver in 2011
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Silver in 2011

  #1 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Silver in 2011

Looks clear to retest 30.50 high

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Thanks for the new thread.

I've noticed on the Velocity Leaderboard that Silver and Gold are extremely popular instruments. It has at least peaked my interest, but I have not spent any time to learn about the fundamentals of the instrument, critical news times, etc so will avoid looking at it until I have some extra time.

Mike

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  #3 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Silver - lead or lag gold?


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I did a quick review of daily and 15 min comparsion charts.
I don't really see anything -but I thought I'd post them in any case.
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  #4 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Big Mike View Post
Thanks for the new thread.

I've noticed on the Velocity Leaderboard that Silver and Gold are extremely popular instruments. It has at least peaked my interest, but I have not spent any time to learn about the fundamentals of the instrument, critical news times, etc so will avoid looking at it until I have some extra time.

Mike

Thanks Mike,

I don't know anything about the fundamentals, critical news items etc either and the thread is mostly because Gregory requested a review of silver.

Knowing fundamentals etc may or may not help for these items, who knows? One thing I have learned from reading and investment shows is that silver bulls are much more "fanatical" (perhaps enthusiastic is a better word) than gold bulls.

Silver is usually produced as a by-product metal in most mines (copper and gold) with very few mines as primary silver mines - except in Mexico and Peru. Gold has some industrial uses - computers, cell phones, heat shields. Silver has more industrial uses. With silver's lower cost per ounce, it is more often "consumed" in industrial applications as the revenue incentive to recycle it is not as high as gold.

Silver is touted as the "poor-man's" gold and in currency crises times thought by some to do better. The historical silver to gold ratio is about 1:15 to 1:47 (so silver buffs use 1 to 15 with $1050 gold giving $70 silver, and 1:47 giving $22.35 silver)

"Silver often tracks the gold price due to store of value demands, although the ratio can vary. The gold/silver ratio is often analyzed by traders, investors and buyers.[4] In 1792, the gold/silver ratio was fixed by law in the United States at 1:15,[5] which meant that one troy ounce of gold would buy 15 troy ounces of silver; a ratio of 1:15.5 was enacted in France in 1803.[6] The average gold/silver ratio during the 20th century, however, was 1:47.[7] The lower the ratio/number, the more expensive silver is compared to gold. Conversely the higher the ratio/number, the cheaper silver is compared to gold." source:
Silver as an investment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I personally look at charts for short term trading, so for myself "funnymentals" are not something I bother too much about.

However, in longer term analysis they do seem to come into play. I remember a TV interview with John Embry (a gold bug) and another fellow (the anti-gold case). The anti-gold fellow said "Gold will never get above $500 an ounce - not even in my grandchilden's lifetimes!" (gold was about $350/oz at the time). Embry almost flew across the table at him!
"- You know nothing about gold and gold mining. Below $600/oz the miners aren't making any money."

I think this is/was a good point. The long term floor price for gold cannot stay below the cost of production (plus return on capital investment) for more than a few years, otherwise production reduces, as does supply and so the price must rise.

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aquarian1 View Post
Looks clear to retest 30.50 high

February 8th, 2011, 04:51 PM

30.50 hit (to the penny!)

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Friday Feb 11

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Now range bound between:
30.25 (to 30.50 thrust move) and
29.62 (to 29.45 thrust move).

These are not trading recommendations, just chart study:

below 29.40 go short (stop 29.70)
above 30.53 go long (stop 30.53)

For range traders:
buy 29.70 (stop 29.40)
sell 30.30 (stop 30.53)

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The fun is in the numbers
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here is an update on the silver charts.

Hi-ho away!

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  #8 (permalink)
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very useful charts,thanks,I thank paper currency will drives all commodities,long side will be better.

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  #9 (permalink)
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avxoox View Post
very useful charts,thanks,I thank paper currency will drives all commodities,long side will be better.

The charts certainly agree with you. Silver is breaking out to new highs putting it in a very strong position.

(In case people were wondering - though I doubt it--
"Hi-Ho Silver Away!" was the Lone Ranger's cry as he rode off into the sunset having saved the good guys and vanquished the bad guys - who all wore black cowboy hats. His horse was a white stallion he called "Silver" and his best friend was "Tonto" the Indian. -- yes I know BYT, before your time..)

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Technical Commentary
"Silver is closing at current 32.38 marking a fresh high close. This is the
fourth consecutive up week in a move that started at the end of January
at 26.43. Our measured move target for Silver is 34.20. This target is
where the up leg is 1.618 times the distance of the January down move.
The Gold Silver ratio is closing at a fresh low of 42.84. The 44.08 low
from 2006 had been an initial target. The next major support is seen at
1998 low 39.09."
source:
Gold & Silver Marketwatch for February 18, 2011 - Scotia Mocatta, Feb 21 2011 8:25AM

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