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Silver in 2011
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Silver in 2011

  #51 (permalink)
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Donald

Hi I am from India and new to commodity trading did my first trade last week where I purchased @ 47$ aprrox
and closed the position for 1$ profit. This was just to get a feel of how silver moves and looking at its movement for past one week it is like handling a grenade

Anyway silver closed at 67000 rs / per kg here today which is roughly 44.60$

I dont know how influence physical gold/ silver in India influences the market (bernanke conf tommorow will
have 50 times greater impact) but let me tell you that next week 6th May is a very auspicious day for Hindus in India. Many people do their annual purchase on this specific day and usually markets are up around this time (at least gold) There is a huge buy which takes place on this day and brokers must have accumulated today, taking advantage of the fall in price.

Since I am a noob, I am planning not to trade silver / gold on the short side. Just buy them in dips.

I am wondering what would be the correct price for a positional long in gold and silver. I am hopeful for 1470 for gold and 40-42 for silver for entry.

BTW can you recommend any good advisory service which gives good calls for PM. Thanks


Last edited by rishi; April 26th, 2011 at 08:17 PM. Reason: addition
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  #52 (permalink)
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rishi View Post
Donald

Hi I am from India and new to commodity trading did my first trade last week where I purchased @ 47$ aprrox
and closed the position for 1$ profit. This was just to get a feel of how silver moves and looking at its movement for past one week it is like handling a grenade

Anyway silver closed at 67000 rs / per kg here today which is roughly 44.60$

I dont know how influence physical gold/ silver in India influences the market (bernanke conf tommorow will
have 50 times greater impact) but let me tell you that next week 6th May is a very auspicious day for Hindus in India. Many people do their annual purchase on this specific day and usually markets are up around this time (at least gold) There is a huge buy which takes place on this day and brokers must have accumulated today, taking advantage of the fall in price.

Since I am a noob, I am planning not to trade silver / gold on the short side. Just buy them in dips.

I am wondering what would be the correct price for a positional long in gold and silver. I am hopeful for 1470 for gold and 40-42 for silver for entry.

BTW can you recommend any good advisory service which gives good calls for PM. Thanks

Hi Rishi, nice info, thanks. I get prices on India from this URL Live Chennai silver gold where today they show 68080.00 rs/kg, must include a premium then. Where do you get the official prices for domestic India in USD?

On your question, if you ask 12 people that question, you will get 13 answers. It would be a good idea to do a poll actually.

Although i've invested in PM for a few years, I'm only recently, for the past few months digging deeper to gain a better understanding of a very complex market. So here's what i got, and i'm quite willing to stand my opinion aside for whoever knows better.

- There's manipulation going on in both markets, and to what end, you will need to speculate yourself, after reading carefully about it. One source:
Calm Before The Storm

- there's been a price battle going on between the market and the powers that be; those who are manipulating. The battle line has reached the gold $1,500 mark, an understandably important line because beyond $1,500, the market will set sights on $2,000 as the next major milestone.
- the chartists are expecting a correction. Marc Faber is expecting a correction. Jim Rogers also. (personally, i am of the opinion any correction will be short-lived)
- there are other opinions from people 'in' the business, who always, along with a vested interest, have a better argument and more things to say. For example, James Turk believes; "
I am expecting a waterfall decline in the dollar index."

I would make my decision based on owning weight, not so much on price. In other words, if you wait, you may end up with less weight in your hand. Both metals are going up, don't bet on when.

Hope that helps.

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  #53 (permalink)
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rishi View Post
Donald

Hi I am from India and new to commodity trading did my first trade last week where I purchased @ 47$ aprrox
and closed the position for 1$ profit. This was just to get a feel of how silver moves and looking at its movement for past one week it is like handling a grenade

Anyway silver closed at 67000 rs / per kg here today which is roughly 44.60$

I dont know how influence physical gold/ silver in India influences the market (bernanke conf tommorow will
have 50 times greater impact) but let me tell you that next week 6th May is a very auspicious day for Hindus in India. Many people do their annual purchase on this specific day and usually markets are up around this time (at least gold) There is a huge buy which takes place on this day and brokers must have accumulated today, taking advantage of the fall in price.

Since I am a noob, I am planning not to trade silver / gold on the short side. Just buy them in dips.

I am wondering what would be the correct price for a positional long in gold and silver. I am hopeful for 1470 for gold and 40-42 for silver for entry.

BTW can you recommend any good advisory service which gives good calls for PM. Thanks

I'm new here but have been trading Silver for a long time. I shorted at 49 and going to exit half at 42 so that's a good support area IMO.

I have a good advisor but being new I don't know forum rules about posting that. PM me for his info.

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  #54 (permalink)
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Donald View Post
...
Here we are with silver touching $49 in Asian trading this morning, yet it remains in a 63 cent backwardation from spot to December 2015.
...

Hi Donald,

I haven't followed backwardation historically, but it would make sense that when a commodity is surging to new highs (especially a commodity that the public can directly buy - versus a carload of wheat - and one that new ETFs are buying the physical - as in the case for silver) that the price of the physical silver (cash price) would rise at a faster rate than the future leading to the backwardation. That is backwardation in silver is not really surprising or very significant but rather a reflection of a normal phenomenon of a precious metal moving into the public's attention on new highs and something that over the next few months will likely dissipate.

What are your thoughts on this?
Thanks.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #55 (permalink)
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Here are some charts of previous big moves in silver.

The move just now braking out of the 2 day ressistance level of 46 moved insainly fast.

Attached Thumbnails
Silver in 2011-silver-3-03-6-04.png   Silver in 2011-silver-8-05-6-06.png   Silver in 2011-silver-6-07-1-09.png   Silver in 2011-silver-09-4-26-11.png  
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  #56 (permalink)
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Can we go long here ? Maybe after Bernanke has finished his pep talk ?

Looks like he is going to talk up the markets today.

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  #57 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Here are some charts of previous big moves in silver.

The move just now braking out of the 2 day ressistance level of 46 moved insainly fast.

Thanks whatnext

cheers

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  #58 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
Hi Donald,

I haven't followed backwardation historically, but it would make sense that when a commodity is surging to new highs (especially a commodity that the public can directly buy - versus a carload of wheat - and one that new ETFs are buying the physical - as in the case for silver) that the price of the physical silver (cash price) would rise at a faster rate than the future leading to the backwardation. That is backwardation in silver is not really surprising or very significant but rather a reflection of a normal phenomenon of a precious metal moving into the public's attention on new highs and something that over the next few months will likely dissipate.

What are your thoughts on this?
Thanks.

Hi, I don't trade silver futures (although maybe i should start) so i'm not familiar with how backwardation plays out in the end of the month rolls (to the new month) The quote above was from James Turk whom i think was using it solely to prop the idea that there is a shortage in the marketplace; reinforcing his point (pitch) to buy silver NOW! As for the shortages in dealer inventories, agreed, i don't see them as being that important. It only makes sense with the street buying so aggressively. It doesn't hurt their advertising either, to promote this idea. I suspect you can buy all the silver you want tomorrow, or any day of the week in Mexico, and with next to no premium. I remember back to the silver hay days of the last run, in '79 when people where going crazy, even buying up networks of pop and cig vending machines, just to get the coins. I remember seeing kitchen tables piled with such coins. When silver breaks $50.00 (or $80? ) my guess is the general public will start to take notice, depending on how the media plays it. I definitely want to be long when that starts. The way this is playing out with USD, and now with BB's assuring us that QE will keep inflating, i'm guessing we will see that this year. Autumn 2011?

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  #59 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Here are some charts of previous big moves in silver.

The move just now braking out of the 2 day ressistance level of 46 moved insainly fast.

Thanks whatnext,

Very useful charts. I appreciate you doing the work and posting these.
Excellent contribution to the board!

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #60 (permalink)
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Wednesday proved a big profit taking day with silver for me

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