Boy did that ascending triangle move. Second big inter-day opportunity missed. I have a long way to go with short term confidence.
Overall a good day. The trade loss was small and for a good reason - based on previous support. More importantly very happy with the SL at 48.40 for longer contracts - just below the double bottom of the symmetrical triangle at that time and it plunged from there. "The most important trades are the ones you are in" - don't recall the author but good advice.
I'm embarrassed to say I blew through your valued advice today aquarian - and then even asked you to explain it again - a folly I don't want to repeat. Good luck all.
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Sorry about the delays in the posting but I was in a bit of a rush as well, making that graph. I should explain that I look at the charts in an if..then manner. So at each level on the way down (if you had of been thinking of buying a pullback that is) it is IF it holds at x and bounces then buy with stop of y.
As I am not trading silver, I don't have a "feel" for it. That is I am not familiar with the size of the stop-running or the sequencing of it days of pullback and %.
So using barchart.com numbers the low was 33.565 (15 March) and the high was 49.82 for 16.255 difference.
today's 45.645 low would be -4.175 on a rise of 16.255 giving a 25.684% a pullback. So this is 25% roughly.
(exactly 25% would be 4.06375 ==> 45.756 vs 45.645)
P.S. I only have garbage IB for a silver data feed it gives me numbers from a thinly traded Liffe contract - for real time charts e.g low of 9;25CT is 45.691 on IB and 45.645 on barcharts
Good trading to everyone.
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In the webinar on divergence, that Mr. Felton was good enough to give, he stressed the importance of "knowing the market you trade in". I was the dumbass who asked him if he used limit orders for scalping and how many contracts you can buy in the euro with out screwing it up. Can't claim to have the blessed feel for any market.
I have a good eye for opportunities, conservative money management and can read basic chart patterns. That's it. Even with tight stops a loss in silver is a big loss.
When not paralyzed with angst (as demonstrated with the ascending triangle) I make trades when silver is going up so not to get stopped. Downloaded every other indicator on this site and haven't used any of them. If you can trade any other market I don't understand how you couldn't have done well w/ silver so far this year.
Was beating myself up for not reacting better to market action today or moving to break even plus 1 with my loser - but got rid of the multi-day contracts at the right time - so it was a good day.
Hi Guys, throwing in my 2 cents on the silver price, as i follow it like a hawk. Just a couple of points to add-in:
- There has been a lot of talk over the weekend that silver is taking on a life of its own and leading the way. HOWEVER, i've noticed in the last week since gold broke thru 1,500 that silver is following gold on an hr-by-hr basis in lock-step. There is no decoupling going on here whatsoever and in my opinion gold is leading. So if you want to know where silver is going, IMHO focus on gold price, period, at least until silver gets thru $50
- The prices for both metals are trading substantially higher in Asian markets over the past few days, as if some institutional manipulation is influencing gold. For example gold closed at about $1,535 USD in India today, and silver about $49
"The important point Eric is that silver is still in backwardation. I mentioned to you previously in the KWN blog piece on April 1st of this year that if silver remained in backwardation when we neared the $50 area it would be a truly extraordinary event. Here we are with silver touching $49 in Asian trading this morning, yet it remains in a 63 cent backwardation from spot to December 2015.
I canít stress enough how significant that event is. Over the past three months the price of silver has nearly doubled, yet the backwardation has not disappeared. Markets are not designed to work that way, the higher price is supposed to entice people to sell their physical and hold dollars instead. I think the market is quite clearly sending the signal that people would rather hold silver instead of paper money.
The bottom line is that as long as silver remains in backwardation, price declines will be short-lived, itís also telling us that silver has not yet reached a top on this move.Ē
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