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Silver in 2011
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Silver in 2011

  #31 (permalink)
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Sounds goofy but there is so much uncertainty about the dollar that I can't just go by historical charts. Don't get me wrong they offer incredible insight. But we have a full blown sovereign debt crisis of developed nations on our hands and competitive devaluation amongst them. And with china talking about getting out of 2 trillion of usd... That could go to gold.

Every country that has borrowed 40%+ of what they spent have eventually gone into hyperinflation. I think Japan holds the record of getting away with it for 8.5 years. We are at 2-3 years.

If the dollar finds support at 82 I think silver will crash hard.

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Last edited by whatnext; April 25th, 2011 at 08:25 AM. Reason: USD chart
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  #32 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Sounds goofy but there is so much uncertainty about the dollar that I can't just go by historical charts. Don't get me wrong they offer incredible insight. But we have a full blown sovereign debt crisis of developed nations on our hands and competitive devaluation amongst them. And with china talking about getting out of 2 trillion of usd... That could go to gold.

Every country that has borrowed 40%+ of what they spent have eventually gone into hyperinflation. I think Japan holds the record of getting away with it for 8.5 years. We are at 2-3 years.

If the dollar finds support at 82 I think silver will crash hard.

+1. All the TA talk ignores the fact that it really is different this time!

Given the state of the deficit/debt/printing in the US and that fact that the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon (if ever) it's hardly surprising that the $ is getting trashed and folks are fleeing it.

Yeah silver will correct, but the fundamentals are much sounder than that of western economies.

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  #33 (permalink)
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Stopped out at 48.40- 48.32.


In 2 contracts 48.17 because yesterdays resistance could be today's support. SL 48.14, 48.13


To better gauge the demand for silver looking at what Engelhard 100oz bars are selling for on e-bay is a daily indicator for me. Going strong over spot today. Not to say that this won't at some point be the case when price has peaked.



Breaks my heart to think about the people who put their total investment of PM, for insurance if the shit hits the fan, into buying a 100oz bar. That's just one transaction or trade.

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Breaks my heart to think about the people who put their total investment of PM, for insurance if the shit hits the fan, into buying a 100oz bar. That's just one transaction or trade.

If they did they are still sitting pretty right now.

I really hope that people who bought physical over the last few years (because they didn't and don't believe that debt=wealth) make a small fortune. These are more likely to be those that didn't get greedy by buying into the housing bubble and just want some protection for their hard earned from tptb.

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  #35 (permalink)
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re : what's next.

I really tough one. The prb is that it is rather late. Gann buys new highs when pyramiding up - but he would have been in long, long ago. On my March post I wrote in a bull market just buy. Naturally, the steeper the rise the more likely a pullback.

Gann also puts his stops where they will get caught by a change in trend. However, he also has special rules for conditions like this 3 day rule and 7 day rule and the 1 day rule - and I don't know them all and haven't been keeping a hand chart for silver.

So failing that, I see two choices:
Buy as it moves above the high. (choice 1)
Buy on a pullback (problem is the potential gap fill - Choice 2a and Choice 2B)

Gotta run time for ES updating

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #36 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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main rule

Gann's main rule
When in doubt don't go in.
When in doubt and in get out.

i.e. preserve your capital and follow your rules and only trade on definite indication of your rules

@what'snext

What was you entry price on the trade you stopped out of ?

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  #37 (permalink)
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Average was under 40.30 but I have considerable SL losers mixed in there. Nothing held today.

Martifc-

I'm hoping PM's don't make a small fortune soon - the implications don't seem worth it.

In the US there were some people who bought multiple homes with no way of being able to pay for them - trying to make a quick turn around. There will always be people like that - I blame banks taking on the "as stated" policy - which didn't check the persons debt, income, savings; just what they wrote that they made on the contract.

MANY of the people who wanted to buy a home and were shown the adjustable rate mortgage, honestly said: I can afford the introductory rate but not after it goes up in 3-5 years. Many of them were told that when that happened that they could just re-finance... Not always the case and that's fraud.

Edited to add:

RE: post 35 - how do you come about those targets Sir?

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  #38 (permalink)
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Average was under 40.30 but I have considerable SL losers mixed in there. Nothing held today.

Edited to add:

RE: post 35 - how do you come about those targets Sir?

Hi Whatnext,

I don't quite understand your earlier post which was that you were planning to buy at market and stop out at 48.40 and then you have 40.30 as your average, that is did you trade today and were stopped out or did you stop out of earlier positions?

Regarding post 35 I don't have any targets in the post.

I was doing my best to respond to your question on entry price as I thought you were planning to buy today and were looking for an entry price and a stop for the entry price - in line with that I gave option 1 buy a new high (preferred choice) and options 2A and 2B pullback buys. All the prices were determined quickly and with the graph as I thought you were looking for input before the open.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #39 (permalink)
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update for 25 April 2011

As it has not held at possible supports none of the options in post 35 are in play.
The ST trend is now down.
(These comments are only for the daytraders)

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #40 (permalink)
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The stop at 48.40 was for previous contracts held. Bought today at 48.17 and took the loss. Should have shorted - what a pullback - couldn't bring myself to do it.


Didn't understand your levels, but see now - I rushed through them at first frankly going from trading computer to desktop..

Thanks for your contributions and the thread - a real asset.

Looks like a ascending triangle is forming from 10:15 to now (11:20). I'm freaked to trade it but it might be good timing with the heavy pull back.

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