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Silver in 2011
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Silver in 2011

  #11 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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peak at 34.50
now pulling back

buy at 31.50 area??

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  #12 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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" February 17th, 2011, 09:50 PM
there could be a pullback to the break out level and if long at 30.50 then you could ride it upwards with an adjustment of your stop below the weeks low with possible targets of 33.50, 35.05?"

This week:
high= 34.32
low=31.695
close=32.898

So target of 33.50 attained and more with 34.32.
stop below week's low would be <31.695 so 31.40 or so?
breakout was 31.275.

So because it can sometimes pullback to the breakout level and slightly below,
I would not adjust upward a stop on 30.50 long position to 31.40
(if you didn't take profits in the 34 area), but adjust upward only to 31.00 from BE of 30.50.

Add to position on the long side if you see a low put in during next week's action -if you are a bull.

hope it helps!

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  #13 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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update - what are you looking for?


Hi everyone,

I have had a request to update this and hope to get my analysis and update done on the weekend.
If other people are interested in an update let me know your time frame and trading strategy (here, via email or Pm), and i will try to incorporate your needs in the analysis.

For example, if someone is already long from 30.50 then what they are looking for is different than someone who is looking to enter. If you are holding for several months then your needs are different that day-trading or multi-day ST (such as 7 to 14 days). If you build a position (e.g. taking a third at each entry) then that is different than taking your entire line at one time. etc.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #14 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Review of Silver

Hi

Here is my review of silver at request. First I should say that I'm not feeling 100% but anyways here goes:

Silver is in a bull run (I might as well start off with the obvious! )
On 17 Feb we had the (then) outrageous targets of 33.50 or possibly 35.05.
It blew past those. So if you're not long from 30.50 or 32.40 then what?

Gann buys on new highs so would have already been long and pyramiding up and would add if it rises above $36.745 the recent high of the May contract on 7 March. Of course most of us aren't as clever as the master and would wait for pullback to buy. So that would be the support trendline.

I've shown that in blue in this weekly (log scale) chart
( - yes I dislike log charts too but I'd already marked up this one.)

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Last edited by aquarian1; March 13th, 2011 at 06:04 PM.
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  #15 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Here is the same weekly chart but the entire range.

I have tried to make an estimate of possible targets.
I should have a multiyear swing chart and quarterly swing charts but I don't follow silver so I've improvised.
$42 is the next target.

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  #16 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Another way to do a target is to look at the average speed of ascent.

I took the low to the high and divided by the number of trading days (25TD) and got the $0.414 per TD -check the math.

So you would take 28 Jan low of $26.40 and add $0.41 (I rounded down giving a more conservative line) each day forming a list of price projections.
e.g.
31 Jan 26.81
01 Feb 27.22
02 Feb 27.63
etc,
29 TD -- 11 Mar = 26.40+29*.41=26.40+11.85=38.29 etc
30 TD 14 Mar $38.70 and mark these on your calendar and sell some (if ETF trading) or all if (future trading) of your position.

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Last edited by aquarian1; March 13th, 2011 at 06:06 PM.
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  #17 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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This last chart deals with pullbacks.

As you can see pullback1 (22-24Feb) was $2.61
and pullback2 (7-11mar) was $2.695

What is interesting about Friday 11 March is how strongly it moved back up almost erasing 4 days of fall.

The lower dark red trendline is another possible buy point of about $32.40 (projected to Friday 18 March.)
The tough thing about waiting for a pullback in a strong uptrend is missing the boat and then if it does pull back is it changing trend? (So what I'm saying is somewhere around $32 (-$0.40 to the 32.40 trendline) is the lowest I would buy at and below that I would stand aside and wait for it to make a bottom.

The other difficulty right now is the mixture of Northern Africa and Middle East combining with massive POMO operations - so you are on your own figuring out the net effect to these!

So there you go. Not sure if it helps.
(in a bull market just buy - )

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Its funny, people talk about Gold everywhere; Gold hits all times high blah blah blah, but if you invested in Silver last year, you would of made more money in Silver then Gold!

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tellytub View Post
Its funny, people talk about Gold everywhere; Gold hits all times high blah blah blah, but if you invested in Silver last year, you would of made more money in Silver then Gold!

That's because the fundamentals for silver are just as strong as for gold, and people have (quite rightly) seen that silver has more potential upside because it has been undervalued for a long time.

A couple of years ago the gold:silver price ratio was over 80:1. It's now at 37:1 and still falling sharply.

Interesting that the ratio of gold to silver in the earth's crust is 19:1 - and worth remembering that more gold exists above ground than silver because most silver is consumed in industrial use, and not much is recycled.

Those that are bearish on gold and silver fail to grasp the importance of QE, inflation and potential hyperinflation.

If you think about it for a moment, $39 for an ounce of a precious metal with a finite supply and important industrial uses is pretty damn cheap - especially in the context of today's financial and political world.

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  #20 (permalink)
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martifc View Post
That's because the fundamentals for silver are just as strong as for gold, and people have (quite rightly) seen that silver has more potential upside because it has been undervalued for a long time.

A couple of years ago the gold:silver price ratio was over 80:1. It's now at 37:1 and still falling sharply.

Interesting that the ratio of gold to silver in the earth's crust is 19:1 - and worth remembering that more gold exists above ground than silver because most silver is consumed in industrial use, and not much is recycled.

Those that are bearish on gold and silver fail to grasp the importance of QE, inflation and potential hyperinflation.

If you think about it for a moment, $39 for an ounce of a precious metal with a finite supply and important industrial uses is pretty damn cheap - especially in the context of today's financial and political world.

Consider the currency factor as well, today GC and SI are traded in USD what will happen if the Dollar crashes down and they switch to Euro. For a EU citizen and with the Euro flying high you might consider exchange rates going against you, on the other side and like you mentioned, SI seems to be the safest Com at the moment.

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