Silver in 2011

May 17th, 2011, 10:10 PM

Update on SLV vol. Just realized that IQFeed supports many of the new CBOE VX series indexes on selected ETFs and Equities. Sort of a "VIX of SLV". URL: CBOE - Micro Site

May 17th, 2011, 10:37 PM

... and a chart from TOS looking at IV and HV on SLV. Looks like that VXSLV index is a good proxy for IV, which means I now have a great quick-and-dirty way to access IV in Ninja.

May 18th, 2011, 12:58 AM

MXASJ -

So now that IV has corrected from 46 to 43 - is "your good trade gone bad" back to being good - or did you dump it like I very well might have?

If what I'm saying doesn't make any sense that's because there's an assumption that it was IV's move from 42 back to 46 that screwed you.

May 18th, 2011, 02:20 AM

whatnext

MXASJ -

So now that IV has corrected from 46 to 43 - is "your good trade gone bad" back to being good - or did you dump it like I very well might have?

If what I'm saying doesn't make any sense that's because there's an assumption that it was IV's move from 42 back to 46 that screwed you.

I'm still in the trade as neither profit target nor stop loss has been hit. It is taking longer than I wanted, but short premium == long theta so time is on my side. You are right about the IV... the more it drops the more I make.

But I am re evaluating my target profit and how I've been managing delta risk on this one and some other similar trades.

May 18th, 2011, 04:03 AM

Edit: I noticed that these PF's from NT weren't the same as originally posted from stockcharts so I corrected it - but the results were totally different..

Then I checked past stockcharts and replicated the same in NT and they were also 100% different. I don't get it.. same prices and same pattern but no similarity in how the draw out.

This is really surprising b/c I have used stock chart dot com printouts as a guide from the start and when in stocks before that - they have been great.

Original post:
Here are the 15 and 60 min Andrews pitchfork snapshots.

Broke through convincingly in the first 4 hours of 5/18.

May 18th, 2011, 04:47 PM

Fun with fork

15 Min chart July YI (Liffe data from IB - hah, hah)

May 18th, 2011, 11:36 PM

I still think they can be a useful tool for reference if you have the right fit.

But the those in the 15 and 60 min charts only worked well because they mirrored the steep resistance TL since 48 that we broke out of.

Big test coming at 36.

May 19th, 2011, 01:58 AM

My "hah, hah" was about the crappy data from Liffe - which is all I have because IB will not allow ECBOT silver gold data feeds - in league with the NY cro-ks no doubt. I like pitchforks and use them!

May 19th, 2011, 02:34 AM

Don't see much of help in estimating direction as yet.
Best to wait til after Friday and see if things are clearer.

May 19th, 2011, 05:42 AM

Yeah a descending triangle at 33 could bring us to 26.

More later I'm exhausted. GL

Silver in 2011

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Silver in 2011