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Silver in 2011
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Silver in 2011

  #131 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Can you play IV or is it just options being cheaper?

Yes. It is called trading volatility. I'm short puts and short SLV as of last Thursday. That bet is not on price direction, but in a decrease in how fast it moves (Close to Close) and therefore IV/option prices.

You could naked short vol as well but I learned more than I wanted to about the risks of being naked short vol in October 2008 .

I'll post some charts later.

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  #132 (permalink)
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Bro on a trend line (lower support) going back to Jan '11 gold is in the green?

What am I missing?

Yes, its a bull market, (you're not missing anything) i'm just referring to the pull-back. Its a downtrend from a 1,577, a high to a low that took out a previous low, but we don't have a higher-high (yet). Added to that, commodities are softening over-all, the dollar is holding. So the jury's out on whether gold has finished it's correction. If not, look out below. Anything can happen and probably will. Its one bet.

adding: this discussion is actually about silver, just mentioning, in case anyone stumbles upon it.

adding the above comment applies to an 18 DMA


Last edited by Donald; May 11th, 2011 at 02:51 AM. Reason: Discussing silver note added + 18 DMA added
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  #133 (permalink)
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MXASJ View Post
Yes. It is called trading volatility. I'm short puts and short SLV as of last Thursday. That bet is not on price direction, but in a decrease in how fast it moves (Close to Close) and therefore IV/option prices.

You could naked short vol as well but I learned more than I wanted to about the risks of being naked short vol in October 2008 .

I'll post some charts later.

MXASJ, help me out on this, do you think gold has finished correcting? I see the traders have jumped back into silver. What's your take?

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  #134 (permalink)
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Here you go. If you sold JUN 42 SLV PUTS last Thursday and covered yesterday you would have done well, even after the cost of hedging.

My SLV vol trade is still on so I won't go into details, but my view is that volatility will continue to drop in that instrument. Silver/SLV prices may go up or down, just not as fast as last week.

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Silver in 2011-2011-05-11-tos_charts2.png  

Last edited by MXASJ; May 11th, 2011 at 02:52 AM. Reason: Spelling
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MXASJ: I don't know wtf you are talking about and a chart won't help.

Donald: A higher high? we just went parabolic with silver - give it some time - tell me you would short the chart below.

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  #136 (permalink)
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Donald: A higher high? we just went parabolic with silver - give it some time - tell me you would short the chart below.

I wouldn't short gold today on that chart. I wouldn't go long either, that's my point i guess. Its a simple thing i'm saying, i wouldn't be going long silver until gold fully works out its correction. If you think gold has finished correcting by reading that chart, i'll take it under advisement. In fact, it could be that wasn't even a correction, just a normal swing in a trading range.

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  #137 (permalink)
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We have lift off.

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MXASJ: I don't know wtf you are talking about and a chart won't help.

I don't know wtf I'm usually talking about either. Look at the Blue Line in these charts. That's IV. When it gets silly high I sell it, normally on EEM but EFA has worked for me as well thanks to the lads in Athens and Lisbon.

SPY is in there for comparison.

You can trade that Blue Line. The only reason I'm in this thread is because IV on Silver (be it futures or SLV) is silly high now. I don't have a view on where the price of Silver is going, I do have a view on how fast it will get there.

I'll consider a seperate thread on vol once I'm out of the Silver vol trade.

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Silver in 2011-slv_vol_5year.png   Silver in 2011-eem_vol_5year.png   Silver in 2011-spy_vol_5year.png  
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We have lift off.

However, the pilot didn't clear those trees at the end of the runway..

i just spent 1/4 of the dry powder held in reserve...just in case it doesn't continue with the correction. re-entered at 36.80 (35.99 CAD)

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  #140 (permalink)
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Sorry Don. Got hammered almost 5.5% of trading funds.

ETA: Interesting stuff MX.

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