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Silver in 2011
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Silver in 2011

  #111 (permalink)
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Wonder if deep out of the money puts were actually cheaper at 41 then 49 or 48. Read two books on options but don't have confidence in buying them - largely b/c of the unknown on how high or low a stock or commodity will go in what time frame.

This is shameful to admit to - but I don't even really know what will happen to the silver contracts held if there's a default.

I've READ that prices could sky rocket, or money be returned, but really have no clue. Keeping market order stops and not over exposing my account - but that's it.

It's a situation where there's an opportunity for a limited amount of time and it's not like I ever made real money working for someone else or any private corp wants to hire a 30 yo with nothing on the resume for the last 6 years. Anyone reading this thread two days ago (in real time) could have made an easy 35K+ per contract taking the trade I laid out and exiting when I posted.

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  #112 (permalink)
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I erroneously wrote that silver's next major support was 18. Sorry about the carelessness.

Support levels from my limited method:
  • 34
  • 30
  • 27
  • 25
  • 18.50

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Silver in 2011-silver-5-8-11.png  

Last edited by whatnext; May 8th, 2011 at 05:30 PM. Reason: updated
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  #113 (permalink)
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The real reason for Silver's decline;

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Last edited by PositiveDeviant; May 8th, 2011 at 09:59 AM.
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  #114 (permalink)
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PositiveDeviant View Post
The real reason for Silver's decline;

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No it was because of the SLV short vol trade I opened Thursday .

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  #115 (permalink)
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Ramblings

Here's another contrarian idea I bet you haven't heard yet.

If you agree that the Gov is propping up the stock markets, that they employ greatly skilled chart readers, that equities have largely moved together, and that even some beginners ride them both up and down...

Would it make sense that if those chart readers saw a major top building that they would begin jacking up margins not just to slow it a little - but to covertly dissuade and try to limit the up coming losses in silver - which might spread to other equities being propped up?

But people are blaming the margins for a plunge that occurred at the same dollar value of 1980 and has had the same type of drop off.

Just one possibility that disregards a lot of other info like the dollar being at a sensitive point and where silver might go if it broke 50.

Edited to add: even at 16K margin silver would have been a good investment this year.

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  #116 (permalink)
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Starting to look for spots to re-build longs. Same 1.5% in SL risk with tight stops.


Last edited by whatnext; May 9th, 2011 at 03:02 AM. Reason: awful grammer
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  #117 (permalink)
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Ascending triangle with resistance at 36.50 on a 5 min chart could break out.

Edited to Add:

It just clicked that the chances of posting trade set up's and reaching anyone in time are slim and it makes the thread more cluttered so I should probably stop. Wouldn't mind a full timer of CL as a trading buddy.

Also Edited to Add:

Bad quality historical charts of silver for looking specifically at 1979 - 1983+
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/historical/SV/1979/0/continuous.html

Things seem different this time around but who knows.


Last edited by whatnext; May 9th, 2011 at 03:54 AM.
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  #118 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Starting look to for spots to re-build longs. Same 1.5% risk in SL with tight stops.

Yep, me too. I have a whole theory in my head as to why i think gold is going to touch down another leg, but i could be fatefully wrong.

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  #119 (permalink)
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I argued against this big of a drop off all year.

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  #120 (permalink)
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FWIW. Daily data as of 10 May. IV dropped yesterday and should drop some more today if these pre market SI levels hold.

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