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Silver in 2011
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Silver in 2011

  #101 (permalink)
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Out shorts 34.54 - 34.62.

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  #102 (permalink)
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Silver longs today;

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  #103 (permalink)
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FWIW the SLV options are extremely liquid these days. If you don't want to tie up your cash with those futures margins and want to express an opinion in Silver with leverage, options are ... an option.

I shorted SLV vol at the open with a delta-neutral position. Some pretty amazing moves today!

SLV beating SPY in volume again, and (on TOS at least) SLV is off the HTB list.

Below a chart of the SLV Jun 34 put. If you entered long around the open you would have done well by the end of the day.

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Silver in 2011-slv_jun34_put.jpg  
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gold's direction?

Any consensus on gold's next move? It looks like gold is holding the 1,500 line, OR could it be pull back on a downtrend. Nice manic bounce in equities market over jobs data, bulls prancing, but what about next week...

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It feels like something weird is going on behind the scenes and I'm clueless as to exactly what. ZH has lots of interesting ideas - but all the good old posters are gone and the forum is in shambles - someone call Zarrator and tell him to clean house.

If the US Gov. had the same reactions to DXY charts I did - it makes sense that they are pulling out all the stops to keep it up.

Gold has support at 1460, better support at 1440 and even better support at around 1420. Next stop is 1350.

Indicators set to long term charts are all bearish. I think the plunge will either continue or there will be an abrupt turnaround. Just trying to react to chart patterns.

Silver found support at the lowest of recent major/critical levels - next big support after that is 18.

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Perspective from Africa - Reuters

Check this out, metals perspective intel.

PRECIOUS-Silver slips 10 pct, gold off record | Metals & Mining | Reuters

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Donald View Post
Any consensus on gold's next move? It looks like gold is holding the 1,500 line, OR could it be pull back on a downtrend. Nice manic bounce in equities market over jobs data, bulls prancing, but what about next week...

Post in the Gold thread:
https://futures.io/commodities-futures-trading/7744-gold-2011-a.html

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  #108 (permalink)
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OK, will do. But will finish this conversation here because in my PM universe, silver's in orbit around gold, like the moon around the earth, so when talking silver i focus on gold as having the gravity and the gold silver ratio as a measure of that dynamic.
My intuition tells me gold, (and therefore silver) will continue down at least one more leg. It's in a downtrend in a bull market, so that makes this drop a pullback, or correction by any other name. Looking at the indicators, it's not over sold, not yet. The ratio is back to about 42:1, so depending on which camp you belong to, that tells you something. A changing dynamic in supply might upset the ratio series, so i don't pay too much mind to it, but am mindful of it, and the momentum of the direction of change. The bigger one is the Chinese economy is slowing, tightening of belts effect. Add it all up, along with this coming Mondays 5th? reduction in liquidity ( 4th margin announcement) and it's an elevator going down for PM's. However, as the experts warn, it can turn on a dime like all roller coasters

From the article linked above: " Some traders put silver's spectacular fall down to an unwindof a short gold-silver ratio position, compounded by automated
stop-loss orders. There is nothing from a fundamental perspective to cause a
fall this large."

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  #109 (permalink)
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Some points of interest:

In April I read (and completely forgot about) a million dollar bet from an anonymous investor / firm on $25 July puts for SLV.

Another is how the physical market hasn't loosened after the recent plunge and physical is still being withdrawn from Comex.

How could this relate to the Hunt brothers borrowing money to buy silver, then leveraging themselves in silver futures, thus cornering the market?

Could "they" be artificially restricting the physical market in an attempt to unload their holdings in guise?

Could "they" be preparing for default?

What could "they" be doing to push silver down so much so fast at 6:30pm EST and why that hour?

"Those who know don't say and those who say don't know a thing" - Right?

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whatnext View Post
Some points of interest:

In April I read (and completely forgot about) a million dollar bet from an anonymous investor / firm on $25 July puts for SLV.

The trade is still on, and their $1 million is now up to $5.9 million. They bought their 100,000 puts early in April when SLV was at $41. It's almost as if someone knew something would happen and it's curious to see the trade still open. Do they seriously believe silver will get to sub $25 by July options expiry? Perhaps their intention is to exercise and take ownership of shares?


SLV July 25 strike puts highlighted
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If there is a default at the COMEX as a result of inventory collapse what do you think will happen to SLV?

I was fortunate enough to purchase a bundle of out of the money May puts when SLV was trading at $47 and I made a killing on them, best trade of my life. I got out because at some point there could be a bounce and historically fast and large corrections in silver are very rare. We have already seen the 5th largest 4 day decline in silver ever. Only 4 declines in 1980 were of a greater magnitude over a 4 day timeframe.

It was initially a disaster hedge for my physical silver (most bought sub $11 in September 2008), I sold half at $48 but thankfully kept the puts! : )

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