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I see major support levels at 36-37 and 34-33.50. MA 50 showed support for now. Silver miners like SVM and SLW led physical silver's decline so I'll be looking for their rebound to possibly indicate a reversal.
I agree with Donald that SL and gold are trading together - but just as the movement to the upside was much greater with SL on the way up - it has been on the way down.
I'm not selling the 1 ounce coins or 90% junk. Selling the 100.oz bars has been a nightmare - finally sold at 39.59 - bought in the 9's. Couldn't tear myself away from trading to take the 3 hours to go to where they are stored and even tried bribing them to send for me. Made more shorting futures than I lost in physical but it was a ridiculous and poorly handled situation. Will be putting it back into trading and will stick to 1 ounce max for any future re-buy of physical.
Best returns were from trading pattern breakouts on the 5 min. chart. Was profitable in some "range trading" on the 15 min. chart using Slow Stochastics, 10/20/30 EMA's and BB's - but have a long way to go and will be testing indicators here. I'm very open to suggestions for replacements. Good luck.
I remember - some time ago - reading that COMEX can settle in paper, that is give you a certificate instead of 100,000 bar. (I don't know if this is relevant or not!). I know that the transaction cost for a gold maple leaf difference between what you pay to buy one and get if you sell one is $1,511.00- $1,542.00USD.
(As i see it), the battle is over gold $1,500, a breakaway to the upside makes $2,000 the next high water mark. The western bnking establish does not want that, as gold's movement reveals the true price of the dollar behind the DXY collection of fiat money (CAD and AUD included). We have entered a dollar crisis zone whereby western fiat is in a showdown over USD's ability to reign. Meanwhile sovereign demand for gold continues; emerging sovereigns are loading up on gold. The market is sagging, we can hear the floor boards creaking. Dangerous times ahead. Gold could be going vertical any day. It certainly isn't going down (down), and you can take that to the bank.
I feel as if we are at a crossroads: Will the dollar hold or give way.
(On the “extreme” side of each)
Those who feel it will hold; point to there being no immediate replacement for the USD in global trade, suggest massive cut backs in social programs (even the ones people paid into) and a plunge in equities.
Those who feel it will give way; expect the fall of the dollar to affect global trade other currencies adversely (particularly those structurally dependent on the USD) and equities (perhaps like social programs) to hold up in nominal terms.
The truth is often somewhere in the middle and all we have is history to guide us to a conclusion. Today seems so far removed from previous historical occurrences.
I think the USD will fall hard based on its underling foundation; akin to Rome. It has already outlasted the life span of nearly all past fiat currencies. Can't say if it will be 2-3 months or years – so meagerly prepare for both.
You've focused on the main issue, will the USD survive. Let's call it the 64,000 dollar question. I am hearing and listening to strong arguments on both sides.
Harry Dent, not being familiar with him i watched a handful of his videos just now. He seems to strive to be a forecaster, with emphasis on his past predictions. He's selling something and using his demographic recognition work as the keystone. Back in Feb/11 he was predicting metals to weaken and fall off. Gold had just recovered from sliding at the time. Following that, silver hiked from $30 to $49, a twenty dollar run. He seems to have been wrong a number of times. So the jury's out on Dent. But let's look at what he is saying. Gold is going to $400-$200, slv $4 to $6, because we are entering a period of deflation, then he's quick to point out expect only 10% deflation, maybe 20%. BUT oil is going to peak at $100, then crash to $15 in 2015-16. That the DOW is going to crash to $3,000 / $2,500 (thereabouts). For a cause and effect argument he talks real estate, and supply and demand based on generational demographics.
Some of that is true, but it has to be seen in the context of a greater picture, elements such as international corporatism, the rise and fall of empire, emerging economies, war, etc. What i notice about the blogosphere RE websites is that typically they fail to see a bigger picture. Dent seems to see it, and its relationship as 'the' driver, so let's give credit where due, but his take needs to be tempered against the backdrop of a money printing machine that is determined to print money in order to weaken the dollar with a determinism to (among other things) keep real estate asset values from reaching their free market value. Real estate is not going to recover for at least another 5 to 7 years. It cannot. The physics just are not there. The government (now wall street) and the money printers will resist the physics as long as humanly possible, and in the process, self destruct the dollar.
You know what that means for inflation, and PM's as a result, and why the dollar is imploding.
I am listing to arguments that the US dollar cannot be replaced as the world base currency; that it is too ubiquitous, there are too many dollars in play. Now contrast that with what Harry Dent says (and he is particularly right), that it's not the three trillion in currency supply that matters, it's the 60 odd trillion in debt base capital that is created by the banking sector when they loan.
Now apply that same argument to the global currency base. These arguments counter each other. In other words, if China ran around the world cutting trade deals with all the commodity producing and trade reciprocal countries and the trade deals are constructed with letters of credit nominated in currencies belonging to each other (central currencies backed by gold, where just the notion of it is enough), and where such settlement swap occurred bank-to-bank, because China has a bank in each country, a system of clearing can be used that does not involve USD. This is what they are doing. It's in place now. And it appears that Saudi are breaking away from the oil/USD treaty (US hegemony breaking) , and forging a tie with Pakistan, who in-turn are tight with China. In response, the US is, well, freaking out. This is why we have the OBL story, out of the deep freeze. And at the same time, an unofficial declaration of imminent war with Pakistan.
Hence, i don't think gold is going to $400, nor oil $15.
Dent needs to taken with a grain of salt and the effect of a dire geopolitical landscape full of possible unintended consequences. Like Syria blowing up for example.
Going short big contracts under 35.50 or long over 37.
Big breakout to the upside for the DXY from it's trading range of 73 - 73.50 starting on 4/28. Hasn't reached the upper daily resistance trendline started in mid feb.
The margin rules haven't affected me much yet because I haven't held past trading hours and keep well over 2500 per contract. I might keep today.
I'm too much of a contrarian but it feels like the margin requirements might be helping SL now that so many are short. Maybe just over my head. I wish margin change = easier trading.
