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At zeroedge Better than Gold? ? Jim Rogers Thinks So. | zero hedge
a clipping from capital edge at the bottom
"To continue with the rest of our Inflationary HolocaustSurvival Guide, go to http://gainspainscapital.com/ and click on FREE REPORTS [at the top]. All in all its 14 pages explain not only why inflation is here now, why the Fed is powerless to stop it, and three investments that absolutely EXPLODE as a result of this (including Jim Rogers personal favorite on playing agricultural commodities).
If you go there to the free reports - they ask for name and email and then give you a link to their reports of which their are three. The report on inflation 14pg PDF, I think you'd like - basically buy gold bullion, agriculture etc
I'm not saying that a hyperinflation will happen, but it is a possibility the way they are going. I read Market Wizards recently which was written 20+ years ago, and many of the traders interviewed were scared of the debt levels back then - the debt has continued to increase exponentially since then and shows no signs of slowing down.
Interview with Donald Trump here using such phrases as "you're going to pay $25 for a loaf of bread soon" - and he's considering running for president!
I am happy to join this thread because I am interested in gold, but more from a GC pure price movement perspective than from press reports (although you have given links to some very entertaining articles!).
I am fairly new to futures.io (formerly BMT)F and will add a chart if I can ever work out how to upload one...
I like trading GC because I see it as a pure price chart (btw I look at the April contract because that is where all the volume is currently). My interpretation is that GC has just completed a reverse head-and-shoulders with a 1347/49 neckline (most visible on the 4-hour chart). GC closed above 1349 yesterday and spent today consolidating just above this neckline. Classic H&S price projection yields a target in the 1385 region.
IMHO you can't have a serious gold thread with some fundamental doom and gloom talk!
I have to say that I take extreme technical analysis with a big pinch of salt, especially in a market like gold. Geopolitical events cannot be ignored - the events in Egypt started at a time when gold looked under severe pressure, with lots of articles in the mainstream financial press suggesting that the gold boom may be over.
Whilst I agree with Martifc that fundamentals such as Egypt do move the price of Gold, I cannot predict when the price of Gold will take off on such fear concerns; so I confine my trading to watching the price action.
The short answer to your question is that I mostly day-trade GC, and only during the Comex pit session hours when volume is at its greatest (08:20 EST to 13:30 EST). GC moves in a rough $15 range (150 ticks) each day, although the last 3 weeks have been more volatile with an ATR just over 200. I am not an uber-scalper and look to take 1 or 2 trades a day although if gold has already made a big move overnight then I won't take a trade. Timeframe is 15 mins and below, I try to enter near to Support & Resistance levels, look to take off half and run the balance with a stop tightened to entry. I only use one indicator, the Value Chart. I like to keep things as simple as possible, some may therefore criticise me for not taking account of the fundamentals, producer hedging, the World Gold Conspiracy, central bank price manipulation, etc.
I must mention stops. USE A STOP ON EVERY GC TRADE OR YOU WILL GET YOUR HEAD RIPPED CLEAN OFF!! Don't even think about using mental stops when trading gold, it moved $15 in 9 minutes two days ago and such moves are not uncommon. Part of my strategy with gold is to keep chipping away with a stop in place and hope to catch a runner every so often, exiting runners by progressively trailing my stop.
The longer answer to your question involves a discussion about holy grail searching, developing your own trading method with a market which suits your own personality, etc. and should really be the subject of a separate post. I toyed with YM for a long time but when I switched to GC I found my mind was much clearer and I was happier just focusing on the price action for a few hours a day.
Regards,
Tartimo.
PS The only non time-based chart I use is a point & figure chart to help keep track of the bigger picture on the daily GC chart.
Geopolitical events don't mean much on an intraday trading basis I agree, but with the Egypt situation last week I'd be more inclined to get with any upward moves and be wary of fading any supposed resistance. I try to just go with the flow with gold.
The Value Chart is an oscillator-type indicator that was developed by Mark Helweg & David Stendhal (their website is Chart Research - Value Charts - I have no association with them).
I downloaded the free ValueChart indicator for NT 6.5 from the NinjaTrader website - the link is here Links and Downloads Manager - [AUTOLINK]NinjaTrader[/AUTOLINK] Support Forum
It may work on NT7 too but I am not a techie. Mr Stendhal is not possessive about his indicator and there is free code for the ValueChart all over the web if you are using a different charting package.
I use it as a divergence indicator to try to spot potential turning points in a market (price makes a higher high but the ValueChart makes a lower high, and vice versa for lows) at Support and Resistance areas. A reading of +8 signifies overbought and -8 signifies oversold. Like any indicator it lags price by a bar or two and obviously it does not work every time. Don't forget your stop!
