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Gold in 2011
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Gold in 2011

  #61 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Jonc,

You asked for a timeframe and I made up a within a week and we did get above the high edge of the envelope, 1375, within the week, only 4 TD days to the 15th of Feb. (a little soon than June for your 1380 we were there on the 16th.)

We've been above 1385 today, the 17th. 1391.50 to 1394.70 is doable very soon with some possible resistance at 1394.70 level.

Glad to hear you kept some - good trading!
Congrats!

------
If it can get above 1375 on a close you could go long.
3. What is your time frame for targets above?

aquarian1 View Post
February 9th, 2011, 04:42 PM
3. I don't think I'm good enough to estimate both time and price. (but for fun let's say it will break up or down 1365-1375 within the week.)


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  #62 (permalink)
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from kitco

Technical and Fundamental Analyses Standard Bank - Precious Metals Monthly - Standard Bank, Feb 9 2011 9:47AM Daily Metals Commentary - NS Futures, Feb 21 2011 8:39AM Standard Bank - Daily Report - Standard Bank, Feb 21 2011 8:32AM Gold & Silver Marketwatch for February 18, 2011 - Scotia Mocatta, Feb 21 2011 8:25AM Kitco Exclusive: Daily Metals Commentary - Heraeus, Feb 18 2011 10:18AM
More Analyses...

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  #63 (permalink)
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"Technical Commentary
Gold is completing a strong up week at 1386. The closest resistance is
seen at 1393, the high from the week of Jan 10, followed by January
high 1423. Long term Gold trend line support is seen at 1307. The
market is starting to look toward record high 1430 against the backdrop
of Silver making fresh highs."

Gold & Silver Marketwatch for February 18, 2011 - Scotia Mocatta, Feb 21 2011 8:25AM
2 page PDF

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  #64 (permalink)
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Weekend review for 25 Feb 2011

Gold looks like it is ready to test 1426.30 next week, or so.

Selling against a 4th top is risky as 4th tests usually go through.

You could stand aside at 1426.50 and re-enter on the the long side on a daily close above 1434.10 e.g. close > 1435.

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  #65 (permalink)
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gold is going to test its all time high. it had reached 1429.

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  #66 (permalink)
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aqurian, how do you see the gold market these coming days now that it broke into new highs?

I am still holding to some longs although I had unwind most of them on the climb up.

I am contemplating a short term short position

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  #67 (permalink)
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March 2 Close > 1435


aquarian1 View Post
February 25th, 2011, 10:34 PM
Gold looks like it is ready to test 1426.30 next week, or so.

Selling against a 4th top is risky as 4th tests usually go through.

You could stand aside at 1426.50 and re-enter on the the long side on a daily close above 1434.10 e.g. close > 1435.

Yesterday, it closed above 1435. You could re-enter long if you stood aside at 1426.50. Today's low 1417.70.
Long 1419 stop 1408.

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  #68 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
aqurian, how do you see the gold market these coming days now that it broke into new highs?

I am still holding to some longs although I had unwind most of them on the climb up.

I am contemplating a short term short position

Hi Jonc,

It's a shame you had to unload most of them.
I don't see going short.

Of course, you could be correct - but it is a riskier trade than going long on pullbacks to the uptrend. Perhaps you re-reading your earlier posts about seasonal demand etc. would be of value - for you. Ask yourself has anything changed? If anything you have the additional factor of middle east/northern Africa tensions.

Kitco has a lot of commentary and a daily video that could give you more input.
Kitco EXCLUSIVE

Those who have been gold bulls and have taken heat since Jan will now be more bullish. Targets of 1500 will be revisited. It broke its old high so if you wanted to wait until after Friday you could see how the weekly close is and then decide over the weekend - as no doubt many others will do.

I hope that helps.

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aquarian1 View Post
Hi Jonc,

It's a shame you had to unload most of them.
I don't see going short.

Of course, you could be correct - but it is a riskier trade than going long on pullbacks to the uptrend. Perhaps you re-reading your earlier posts about seasonal demand etc. would be of value - for you. Ask yourself has anything changed? If anything you have the additional factor of middle east/northern Africa tensions.

Kitco has a lot of commentary and a daily video that could give you more input.
Kitco EXCLUSIVE

Those who have been gold bulls and have taken heat since Jan will now be more bullish. Targets of 1500 will be revisited. It broke its old high so if you wanted to wait until after Friday you could see how the weekly close is and then decide over the weekend - as no doubt many others will do.

I hope that helps.

Aquarian, the reason why I am thinking of shorting is because when gold hits new highs in March, it has this habit of not being able to make new highs anymore for the next 3-4 months. Last night actions in GC were chaotic, there were huge lots being dumped at every attempt to climb up in price.

Yes, this is an extremely risky trade considering the price of oil and the situation in Middle east. Gold might explode upward if the situation takes a bad turn.


Last edited by jonc; March 4th, 2011 at 03:06 AM.
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Hi Jonc,

After dipping down into the area below the peak it finished decently for the week.
Seasonality is good to bear in mind but not enough to undertake a trade, IMO.
I would wait until the uptrend is broken and a downtrend confirmed if I were to short.

Best of luck whatever you decide.

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