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Investing in silver
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Investing in silver

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Gilford, ON, Canada
 
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Myshkin View Post
I am in the silver business...well...was into buying silver for my jewelry and bead biz but haven't bought any significant quantities since January of '09 when the metal was much more reasonable than it is now. I know with silver, the consumption for jewelry is not everything, with a good proportion going to industry such as photography, electronics, etc. but I can say that for me, the price has made it into a valuable albatross, i.e. wastes space in my limited display real estate as it moves at a glacial pace even at melting price but IS worth a good chunk of change (when it hits $40, I will most likely send it to a refinery).

With reference to silver, I don't see total demand going up for the physical commodity as jewelry consumption is down but perhaps solar panel and other industry use is up. IMHO, demand is in speculators using it as a hedge against fear of an economic meltdown or complete crashing of the dollar. To Donald's well thought out and tenable opinion on oil's recent meteoric rise in relation to the crashing dollar, I ain't seeing it. I mean the dollar has strengthened against the yen(for obvious reasons) but has lost a few percentage points against the CAD and AUD and a bit more to the Euro. However, commensurate to the near 20% oil has climbed in the past 6 weeks and a few more indications of potential recovery in the economy, a future with higher interest rates is looming ever closer. Higher interest rates may mean more foreign investment in the good ole US of A, and with a buying of treasuries and a strengthening of the dollar, an implosion of the commodity run up.

I heard mentioned an idea for a trade pairing SI/SLV long with an equal amount of money short GC/GLD as silver is at least being used up in industry, whereas gold is just being collected in addition to historical ratios of the 2 still favoring former equilibrium by silver going up relative to the price of gold or vice versa. Caveat on that is that silver is more volatile thus you could be shaken out of your positions in the day to day melee and really, it may be a bit overdone, at least on the short term. Check out attached weekly chart of the ratio to see what I mean, GLD has come in a great deal already.

For me, I still have some of each of the physical commodities and if playing with the stocks/futures intraday, it is still to the long side until some strong evidence of a trend reversal emerges.

Good luck to all whether buying or shorting or just leaving the metals alone. Off to get some Thai treats to eat as the Bangkok evening calls.

Later

You could share a little more of that Bangkok evening too!

Its like a giant crawling creeping swelling contraption this economy, with many operators, valves, cooling and heating systems, leaking foul ooze as it grinds up countries and maybe civilizations. I respect Louise Yamada, and when she says, 'oil $140 in 2011', I listen up. The reason USD is sinking is simply because the fed is printing too much of it. CAD and AUD are increasing for the same reason. CAD has climbed 10% against USD in the last 24 months. That only happens when the buck plummets in value. We do our best to keep it below USD, well below. I don't think the fed is going to raise interest rates any time soon. They can't,the deficit would blossom. They are between a rock, and a hard place, and they are out of bullets. Inflation will continue, in spite of what the captain says.

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  #22 (permalink)
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Aye, wish I could share some Bangkok as is truly so fine, sweat running down my back as I type from my self chosen sweat shop both from the sultry heat and just got in from some chili rich love that my lips are still tingling from

Anyway, I am by no means saying that the prices will not continue to go up, was just questioning the reason with oil:-) I think longterm, it makes sense that oil prices will continue to climb as supply is used up more and more each year coupled with the likelihood that demand will increase exponentially as economic conditions around the world improve(me forever the optimist). In the case of the recent spike, I am inclined to blame it on the wacky Middle East mayhem instead of the recent devaluation of the greenback, which I reckon has been repeatedly bludgeoned, flayed and hacked at since October of '08. True though, USD is sinking against the other English speaking dollars because a healthy amount of money is going into those countries, be it from relatively huge per capita natural resource stores and/or Oz interest rates making it a nice investment for foreign govts. Oh yeah, as you said, also the Fed's printing machines' Niagaric outflow of USD dough:-)

Of course, this is just my opinion and luckily, I rarely if ever trade based upon my opinion about the fundamentals that move markets;-)

On silver, I think it may well continue to move on up but then, when it falls, expect it to be like Mola Ram (bad guy from Indiana Jones and Temple of Doom), when he bounced off the cliff wall on his descent, taking off a piece of his skull cap off only to quickly be eaten by crocodiles. Again, just an opinion but for your viewing pleasure of a time much different than ours today but from a fear perspective, kinda similar, i.e. high inflation, energy crisis and all that jazz...anyway, see attached chart.

Later.


Donald View Post
You could share a little more of that Bangkok evening too!

Its like a giant crawling creeping swelling contraption this economy, with many operators, valves, cooling and heating systems, leaking foul ooze as it grinds up countries and maybe civilizations. I respect Louise Yamada, and when she says, 'oil $140 in 2011', I listen up. The reason USD is sinking is simply because the fed is printing too much of it. CAD and AUD are increasing for the same reason. CAD has climbed 10% against USD in the last 24 months. That only happens when the buck plummets in value. We do our best to keep it below USD, well below. I don't think the fed is going to raise interest rates any time soon. They can't,the deficit would blossom. They are between a rock, and a hard place, and they are out of bullets. Inflation will continue, in spite of what the captain says.


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Investing in silver-silver-1980.jpg  
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  #23 (permalink)
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Andrew's Pitchfork helps take some of the anxiety out of swing trading Gold, Silver and Palladium futures for me.

Attached Thumbnails
Investing in silver-silver-chart.png   Investing in silver-gold-chart.png  

Last edited by whatnext; April 9th, 2011 at 01:31 AM. Reason: better graph
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  #24 (permalink)
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Myshkin View Post
In the case of the recent spike, I am inclined to blame it on the wacky Middle East mayhem instead of the recent devaluation of the greenback, which I reckon has been repeatedly bludgeoned, flayed and hacked at since October of '08. True though, USD is sinking against the other English speaking dollars because a healthy amount of money is going into those countries, be it from relatively huge per capita natural resource stores and/or Oz interest rates making it a nice investment for foreign govts. Oh yeah, as you said, also the Fed's printing machines' Niagaric outflow of USD dough:-)

Excellent new interview with Marc Faber over at kingworldnews ( download the mp3)

Talk about putting meat on the bone, this Faber interview is like a thumbnail synopsis of the last 40 years. (plus he's out of the mainstream media here and not speaking in code, also 100% sober!)

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  #25 (permalink)
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I have a feeling S&P is going to follow through with their 'negative outlook' warning and slash the US AAA to AA. Thus, the dollar becomes weaker, gold and silver gain.

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  #26 (permalink)
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London Source - Asian Buyers Will Take Silver Over $100

Last week I doubled-down on silver, an impulsive move after i saw gold take off.

For any bugs reading, a VERY interesting news item on Eric King's site today.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/25_London_Source_-_Asian_Buyers_Will_Take_Silver_Over_$100.html

KWN’s London source has updated King World News on the massive Asian buyers which have been accumulating gold and silver. The London source stated, “$3 to $4 dollar days in silver will become common, from now on $2 days will be considered slow. There will be a great deal of volatility going forward, but more often than not silver will close near the highs.”

April 25, 2011

The London Source continues:

“Right now the silver shorts are being flushed out in Asian trading on light volume and we have options expiration ahead of us. 38,000 silver contracts are in the money and the question is how many will ask for delivery?

As I mentioned to you previously, the Asians have also been taking delivery of silver out of SLV and will continue to do so. You have to understand that these Asian buyers are planning to take delivery of all of the available physical silver they can get their hands on and will continue doing so for the foreseeable future.”

When asked at what price the Chinese will stop buying silver the London source replied, “The Chinese want out of dollars and they will continue aggressively purchasing both gold and silver in order to diversify. They don’t care whether silver is $50, $60 or $100, they will just continue accumulating. The Chinese may be patient buyers, accumulating on weakness, but you can bet that their relentless purchases of physical silver will eventually push the price well over $100 an ounce.”

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  #27 (permalink)
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Silver's open interest reaches all time high

More relevant news...

April 26, 2011, 2:20 p.m. EDT
Silver futures see record trading volume

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Silver futures saw record trading volume on Monday, the CME Group said in a press release Tuesday. On Monday, trading of silver futures reached 319,204 contracts, surpassing the prior record of 201,216 contracts set on Nov. 9, 2010, the CME said. Open interest in silver options also reached a record of 240,344 contracts, versus the prior record of 235,992 contracts set on April 21, 2011. "Silver futures have demonstrated rapid growth during the month of April," with month-to-date average daily volume for silver futures increasing 218% from this point last year, the CME said in a statement. May silver /quotes/comstock/21e!f1:si\k11 SIK11 +1.17% closed at $45.05 an ounce, down $2.10 on Comex Tuesday.

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  #28 (permalink)
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jlancaster View Post
I have a feeling S&P is going to follow through with their 'negative outlook' warning and slash the US AAA to AA. Thus, the dollar becomes weaker, gold and silver gain.

If this happens the dollar will definitely feel the consequences

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