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Trading CL (Crude Oil futures) #2
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Trading CL (Crude Oil futures) #2

  #71 (permalink)
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Riverend View Post
Crude Inventories at 11am Today

@Riverend,

where to watch?

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  #72 (permalink)
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Cl inventory


Cachevary View Post
@Riverend,

where to watch?

@Cachevary Wow that's a 5 year old post. I check a site in the morning called Finviz.com . It shows todays news, news articals charts and more. plus its free. Most of the news events are centered around US markets.t t
Check out the Futures tab at the top of the page for more commodity information.


Last edited by Riverend; December 25th, 2014 at 03:44 PM.
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  #73 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
@Riverend,

where to watch?

Another possibility: Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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  #74 (permalink)
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TheWizard View Post
Another possibility: Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory

@TheWizard,

how would you interprete those inventory figures?I assume that the positive figures mean lowering the price,as the producers have oil in excess?

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  #75 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
@TheWizard,

how would you interprete those inventory figures?I assume that the positive figures mean lowering the price,as the producers have oil in excess?

Honestly? I have no idea. When trading CL, I just liked to know when there were going to be reports coming out & NOT trade immediately before or after the report. I've watched price stall, just before a report, and get crazy wild just after a report. Wait until the crazy dies down before getting back in.

I was just chiming in with another source for such reports. Nice to know when they're coming out & be careful.

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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  #76 (permalink)
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TheWizard View Post
Honestly? I have no idea. When trading CL, I just liked to know when there were going to be reports coming out & NOT trade immediately before or after the report. I've watched price stall, just before a report, and get crazy wild just after a report. Wait until the crazy dies down before getting back in.

I was just chiming in with another source for such reports. Nice to know when they're coming out & be careful.

I understand.I was just asking more like for the fundamental reason,not for trading.So if those positive numbers affect the oil prices it affects the rouble in the midterm.Thanks anyway!

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  #77 (permalink)
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Cachevary View Post
how would you interprete those inventory figures?I assume that the positive figures mean lowering the price,as the producers have oil in excess?

Compared with the Natural Gas numbers I find the Oil numbers a lot more difficult to intrepretate.

Like any of these data releases the difference to expectation is far more important than the absolute number itself.

Oil is very complicated for several reasons
i) It's divided into different Padds or regions. An increase in Padd V - west of the rockies - is basically meaningless for most of the country as it's a completely seperate market. In reality what people really care about is Padds I, II & III and not the total number.
ii) There are inventory figures for both Crude & Products hence if refinary utilization is higher or lower than expected, crude inventory may swing, but products could have an equal and offsetting swing.
iii) Imports and Exports are mostly by boat and hence have a very uneven supply/demand profile. A crude tanker unloading one day later than expected could result in a 2.2million barrel shift in stocks from one week to another week.
iv) Stocks are seasonal so at certain times of the year we expect them to go up or down without it indicating a change in fundamentals.
v) Crude & products are not homogeneous. The crude refinary in Houston runs a different crude than a refinary in Chicago. The Gasoline you put in your car in Denver is very different to that in New York City. The inventory figures do not break that down though. Hence we may have plenty of crude in the US, but have very little WTI in Padd II (which is the crude and location that the NYMEX contract is delivered to). Hence you could see US crude prices in general drop, but NYMEX prices rise!

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  #78 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Compared with the Natural Gas numbers I find the Oil numbers a lot more difficult to intrepretate.

Like any of these data releases the difference to expectation is far more important than the absolute number itself.

Oil is very complicated for several reasons
i) It's divided into different Padds or regions. An increase in Padd V - west of the rockies - is basically meaningless for most of the country as it's a completely seperate market. In reality what people really care about is Padds I, II & III and not the total number.
ii) There are inventory figures for both Crude & Products hence if refinary utilization is higher or lower than expected, crude inventory may swing, but products could have an equal and offsetting swing.
iii) Imports and Exports are mostly by boat and hence have a very uneven supply/demand profile. A crude tanker unloading one day later than expected could result in a 2.2million barrel shift in stocks from one week to another week.
iv) Stocks are seasonal so at certain times of the year we expect them to go up or down without it indicating a change in fundamentals.
v) Crude & products are not homogeneous. The crude refinary in Houston runs a different crude than a refinary in Chicago. The Gasoline you put in your car in Denver is very different to that in New York City. The inventory figures do not break that down though. Hence we may have plenty of crude in the US, but have very little WTI in Padd II (which is the crude and location that the NYMEX contract is delivered to). Hence you could see US crude prices in general drop, but NYMEX prices rise!

@SMCJB,

I see you are trading Energy.How do you interpret/filter out the news related to Energy?What the most important you are looking at?

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  #79 (permalink)
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Hello oil traders, Ive been trading the past couple of days with poor results, is anyone else having trouble? I think I keep
expecting big moves but the market recently is more choppy and Ive failed to adapt.

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TickedOff View Post
Hello oil traders, Ive been trading the past couple of days with poor results, is anyone else having trouble? I think I keep
expecting big moves but the market recently is more choppy and Ive failed to adapt.


Hello,

Last week I got chopped up in CL after having a very good run in December and made the decision to step back out of it. I think that as we begin to find willing buyers and sellers, we are going to have a lot of action around this level. The fact that Sellers have been so aggressive could be leading them to disregard the fundamentals and just keep pressing looking for the $30 and $20 levels the media have touted.

As each side vies for control and power, there will be a lot of squeezes and things will get ugly. Just my 2c but for me, this is where I'd sit on my hands until we have a clear winner.

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