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Trading CL (Crude Oil futures) #2
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Trading CL (Crude Oil futures) #2

  #51 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Gary View Post
For every Bruce Kovner story, how many stories of people going broke and then never trading again do you think there are? He also supposedly got one trade which made $20K on his $3K, nice start!

It's not impossible, just unlikely. I think the pressure from trading under capitalized will make it more difficult than it already is to get a hold on the discipline and money management side of things. Have you decided what will happen if you lose another $3K?

Don't give up; I just think you need to approach trading with certain requirements and a plan ahead of time on what you will do when things are working and when they aren't.

Gary

If I were him I'd trade penny stocks.

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  #52 (permalink)
Elite Member
Scarborough, Ontario
 
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Not everyone is like Bruce Kovner. So everybody is not like Bruce Kovner. What works for him may not work for you.

I don't subscribe to borrowing money to trade when the basic Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs is not met. eg, Shelter, Food.

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If I am single, that's fine that I am the only one affected. If the family is involved, I am not that selfish.

I would place trading in Safety Needs or Psychological Needs as base but extends to the top as peak experience. Trading can be an adrenalin junkie fix for me.

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  #53 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Big Mike's Avatar
 
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Answering a question from the Al Brooks price action thread, I'm currently using a 12 tick target for my first contract on CL, which I consider a scalp.

I think you guys also need to look at risk when you define your target. It is not very likely you can set a stop of 6 ticks with a target of 6 ticks and win more than 50% of the time, in my opinion (with regards to CL). Your 6 tick target will very likely be hit, but your stop hit first too many times.

I'm experimenting with something that is a bit radical for me, but it feels right. I've moved my stops @ the broker to 'emergency stops', and am instead now only exiting a trade manually when I feel it has indeed gone against me, vs when my stop is hit.

For those following me a long time you know that is a radical departure for me. But I think this is the evolution of trading on my path, and like I said, it feels right to me. Too many times I picked the correct direction but was stopped by trying to maintain a hard limit of 1:1 risk.

So I've pushed the stop back quite a bit, to an emergency stop, and instead am focusing on executing a better than 1:1 (actually the average is closer to 2.0 reward over risk). So now trades where I am right I give them the opportunity to actually win.

Don't get me wrong, if at the end of the day my avg is less than 1:1 there is a major problem, but so far it is working well. I find that most trades do not turn against me, and most trades I feel no need to want to exit. Those that do, I can usually exit at a much improved price over what a hard stop would have allowed.

I think sefstrat was advocating some similar technique recently, so I am curious what he has to say if he is reading this thread. It also goes without saying that you have to really have conquered the psychological aspect of trading, because it can otherwise get away from you way too easily ("oh I think this one is coming back") and it will kill you quick. Luckily that is not my problem any longer so I feel good about it.

BTW, for 2nd contract I have a hard target of 40 ticks, which moves the stop to break even once the 1st target is hit, and I manually adjust the 40 tick target down if I feel like the move is slowing. I also manually adjust it upward if the move has lots of momentum.

Mike

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  #54 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Big Mike View Post
I'm experimenting with something that is a bit radical for me, but it feels right. I've moved my stops @ the broker to 'emergency stops', and am instead now only exiting a trade manually when I feel it has indeed gone against me, vs when my stop is hit.

This is the approach we endorse in our trading room on all of our markets. We have an emergency stop in case a war breaks out or something and the market runs away, and then we watch for market conditions to tell us when to bail on a trade. Clients who won't "drink the kool-aid" and use a tight stop in the market nearly always perform worse than we do trading the same setups. So, we've had a year or two of real-world side-by-side comparison to go on.

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  #55 (permalink)
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could u explain what is HVC? thx,


cunparis View Post
Very intense trading today. Very challenging. Too much consolidation. But I got another good run from being patient.

Here's the setup for the last trade. As you can see I entered early, the bar reversed on me at the last minute. I'm still used to tick charts which go faster. Sometimes waiting for the 5min bar to close seems like eternity but in the end it's good cause I have a lot more time to think it over.

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So I put my stop well under support. I was really stretched here cause the stop was far away and I came close to taking a big loss. But I really have confidence in the HVC bars. In fact as we know triangle bottoms usually break to the downside but HVC bars were able to hold it up.

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Here's the end of the run. I really managed this one. It was up almost 40 ticks and I got out with 32. I think next time I just get out at 30 and save myself some trouble.


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I quit trading CL at 11:30 ET so that's it for me. 75 ticks = $724 for CL. Time to pick up my kids and take them to the playground. I'll hit ES for the last hour after the kids are in bed.

Let me know if you have any comments or suggestions. I appreciate feedback.

PS: I'm experimenting around with some indicators but I'm not using them in my trading. just looking at them afterwards to see if they could have helped. So far the answer is NO. Price & Volume are the only true indicators.

i just start to read ur post today. it was very impressive. trading without indicator is simple but effective from ur post. I am going to learn from u. thx.

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  #56 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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aFei View Post
i just start to read ur post today. it was very impressive. trading without indicator is simple but effective from ur post. I am going to learn from u. thx.

I created a thread about HVC:

https://futures.io/general-discussion/634-how-use-volume-your-trading.html

Trading without indicators is the first step IMHO. Then you add some indicators to simplify and speed up your analysis. But adding indicators without first knowing how to trade price is not good. So give it a try and post some charts. CL isn't the easiest to trade. in fact I often consider dropping it. And then I'll have a great day on CL (like Friday, 37 ticks in 2 trades before 9:30 and I was done for the day).

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  #57 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Anyone know how CL behaves on FOMC days? I'm at work so I can't check the charts.

I usually don't trade ES on those days and I usually don't trade CL on the crude inventory days. So I'm considering doing other work today instead of trading.

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  #58 (permalink)
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Hey guys,

I wanted to share this:
https://futures.io/traders-hideout/1303-cl-vs-qm-crude-oil-tick-size-value-margins.html#post16656

Just posted it, it may be helpful to fellow crude oil traders.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #59 (permalink)
Elite Member
Miami, FL, USA
 
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CL Trading

Hi:

I have been trading CL successfully for some time now using 3 time frames. My trading chart is 300 ticks, medium time frame 900 ticks and long term time frame 2700 ticks. I used a momentum indicator, a cycle indicator and a volume indicator. I take shorts at cycle highs and go long at cycle lows but there must also be a concomitant tradable wave pattern, or a nice ABC retracement. I enter one tick above my trigger bar for a long and short one tick below.

The problem I have is that crude moves so fast that there are many times that price shoots past my desired entry before I can get it down onto the chart. So I have decided to try a switch and trade range bars or renko, which should work just as effectively with my strategy.

So I have these questions I hope someone out there can help me with.

1. Would Renko Bars be better than range bars?
2. Does anyone have any ideas as to the settings for range and renko bars on a trading chart and a longer term chart.
3. Any other tips for trading CL.

I would be happy to share my exact trading strategy with anyone that is interested. I can post a screen shot, my indicators and their settings.

Many Thanks

PS: I am new to Big Mike's and in the week or so I've been here Iíve been amazed at the incredible amount of great information that this site contains.

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  #60 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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andrewrunners View Post
Hi:

I have been trading CL successfully for some time now using 3 time frames. My trading chart is 300 ticks, medium time frame 900 ticks and long term time frame 2700 ticks. I used a momentum indicator, a cycle indicator and a volume indicator. I take shorts at cycle highs and go long at cycle lows

Sounds very similar to the eminiwatch tools. If it is, I think they work best on liquid markets.

Crude is very fast, instead of changing chart settings to try and get around that, I think looking at slower markets makes a lot more sense.

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