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Where should I start my journey?
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Where should I start my journey?

  #41 (permalink)
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MJM77 View Post
I admit that I cannot find an edge & so have not committed any money to the markets. But at least I haven't lost money & I can still search for my edge.

Sorry for seeming to be pessimistic but think of Cloudy - he obviously doesn't have an edge on the markets as over a 12 month period he lost money, and he's an elite member of this site. (Hey Cloudy so sorry to pick on you but you where the one who admitted to loses and was just being honest - Good luck to you). So be hard on yourself, this is not a game. If I can't profit in sim then don't compete at all.

Oh hey, np, I don't mind being an example of how tough it can be with lots of backtracking on progress, even to humorous levels per the "38 steps", haha. And I'm always glad to help warn newcomers about the charlatan vendor risks. Just some correction on my performance, as I said, I had a profitable year prior to last with plenty of consistency and I am comfortable that my "edges" do work otherwise I wouldn't have traded live already, and where I screwed up last year on a slew of critical trades that gave back my profits for the year to end up net negative. I also took breaks up to years of no trading at all, so it's been more like 5 to 6 years of trying which is still far longer than I'd imagined (didn't we all) it would be from the start . Thanks for wishing me luck. Good trading to you too.


Anagami View Post
A simple suggestion: start by exploring different trading approaches by watching webinars here on FIO.

I'd agree there's lots of good intro videos of various trading styles by vendors in the Elite section that can serve as excellent and free beginning trading info, without having to pay for a pricey trading "academy" -upsell buffet course.


Last edited by Cloudy; January 31st, 2019 at 09:34 AM.
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  #42 (permalink)
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Those $10k accounts are not just $10k too, especially if you are in your 20s. That should be your oldest capital that has the longest time to compound. The opportunity cost that you lose on $10k compounding for 40 years at 7% is a $150k.

The goal has to be wealth maximization. Not trading for its own sake or for winning a game to prove a point.

If you start trading with no system, no edge, no experience, and no capital you are practically doing wealth minimization.

I would buy Poor Charlie's Almanac and read it a few times. The younger Munger can take over your brain the better. Then figure out multiple strategies for wealth maximization that trading is just one of those strategies. Don't let trading dreams blind you to other opportunities and talents you have. The markets are not going anywhere.


bobwest View Post
This is probably not what @Lavrans wanted to hear, and these may not be the literal numbers he should be using -- risk is an individual matter. But the message is something that's important to learn, and learn well.

And, by the way, it's very, very (very) likely that, if you start out with a $10k account, you will also blow your $10k acoount. Or $5k. Or whatever k you have. Sorry, don't shoot the messenger.
.


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  #43 (permalink)
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Lavrans View Post

But eventually threw in the towel as I thought everything I read in the books and watched on youtube was complete and utterly nonsense, made up by people who didnít knew how to trade profitably themself and where basically just scamming people.

"He who can does; he who cannot, teaches." - sure, as always, there're some exceptions, but it's true. Common sense tells you that in an arguably the most competitive industry people who sell books, courses, indicators, etc are not real traders.


Quoting 
I am completely aware that one not becomes a successful trader over night, and that it probably will take years and thousands of hours practicing, but I am willing to make the sacrifice for the long term gain.

The market will expose who you really are, not to others, but to yourself. And you might not like what you see. When you start trading, it's just you and the market. The market is the best clinical psychologist in existence. Fear, greed, all your little insecurities, it's all going to come out in full force and will affect your decision-making process and ability to pull the trigger at the right time. You can have the best trading equipment/educational knowledge in the world, but it is not going to make any difference if your mental game is not dialed in.

It goes without saying that screen time, a lot of practise and foundational knowledge are necessary to get started. Not to be successful, just to get started, but as with any professional field, the best players are the best, because they have mastered the mental game.

Take sports for example. On average, anybody who gets into NFL, NBA, etc are already playing on a high level, but they all are. There is no edge in that. In other words, there is no edge in speaking English in an English-speaking country. There is no edge in knowing everything there is to know about trading. All market players have the same knowledge, everybody is looking at the same charts and using the same indicators.

So why, on average, some teams/players, win more than others? Why some players stand out? While it isn't a secret, they don't usually talk about it during interviews or write a lot of books about it, but if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that their edge is the mental game. Bill Belichick mentions "mental toughness" for a reason. Some teams/players are clutch, while others crumble after things don't go their way.

Can you throw a pick 6 and act as if nothing happened on the next play? Can you throw several interceptions in one game and still believe in your process/skills, etc? Or are you going to start panicking and second-guessing yourself, your process and skills? Can you take a loss on a trade? Can you take several losses and reverse the position when necessary or are you going to panic, ignore your trading plan and hang on or add to a losing trade hoping that it will come back?

There is no edge in knowing how to trade. An edge is in execution and in your own head.


Quoting 
My first step is therefore to find someone who actually knows how to trade and try to learn from him.

How would you know that this person knows how to trade? Unless you can get him to screen share with you in real time years of his actual financial statements, you wouldn't know.


Quoting 
I just recently read marked wizards by Jack D Schwager and got interested in commodities.

Commodities? Would you start learning how to snowboard with a quad cork?

When the so-called "market wizards" were "wizards" nobody wrote books about them. Bill Belichick does not write books about how to be a coach or how to play a game. when he does write a book, you can bet that nobody is going to become the next Bill Belichick by reading his book.


Quoting 
1. What do you think my first steps should be to learn how to be a profitable commodity trader?

Your first step should be not thinking about trading commodities. Trade ES, RTY, or NQ. If you cannot be consistently profitable trading ES, you will not be profitable trading commodities.


Quoting 
2. I have found some books that looks good, do you recommend me to read these:
A traders first book on commodities.
Hot commodities.
Commodities for dummies.
The little book that still beats the markets?

I would not recommend any of those books.


Quoting 
3. What broker and software do you recommend?

Thinkorswim (TOS): The easiest way to get started. After you really master TOS and find it limiting, NinjaTrader 8.


Quoting 
4. Can you please explain a little bit about your methodologies? Like a little step for step guide about what you generally do before each trade?

Would you ask Tom Brady to explain to you his methodologies and to give you a step-by-step guide to throwing a ball? No, right? Why? Because in order to even ask a question, at the very least, you need to be on the same field with him. But assuming you're Drew Brees and actually can ask him a question, would you do that?

Does it really matter what I do and what my methodologies are? You are not trading me, you're trading the market. Which means you need to learn how the market works, why the price of ES goes up or down at any given time.

So where should you start in my opinion? If you're starting from scratch and basically don't know anything about the market and how it works, believe it or not, I would start simply by watching CNBC all day for at least one week. I am talking about literally watching CNBC for 5 trading days starting 30 minutes before the market opens and stopping watching CNBC 30/45 minutes after the market close.

Why would you want to do that? You are not going to learn anything about trading by doing this. But you will learn about different components of the market and how they influence and interact with each other. The goal is to have a conceptual understanding of what moves the market up or down. If you don't want to do that, I can give you a little shortcut.

1) Learn about the Federal Reserve's policies and why they are so influential. Read FOMC minutes and make sure that you understand what every word means.

2) Learn how the bonds work, specifically ZN.

3) There is an inverse correlation between ZN and ES, RTY. Study it and make sure that you really understand how this inverse correlation works.

4) Learn the Volume Market Profile.

5) Learn about market breadth. If you want to trade RTY, for example, watch intraday $TIKRL, $ADRLD and $VOLRLD on 3 minutes.

6) Setup your Thinkorswim to display full data intraday (including Globex, an overnight session) on 15 or 30 minutes. Put the market profile on it. Have two screens, one with daily/intraday profile and another one that shows a Weekly profile. Add SMA 50 (simple moving average) on an intraday chart of ES or RTY on 15 or 30 minutes and watch what the price does around SMA 50. Add VWAP. Understand what the VWAP shows and how it works.

7) Setup another screen that plots ZN with the same settings as above for ES or RTY.

Obviously, this is just the basics to get started, but I hope you'll find it useful.

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  #44 (permalink)
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This post and another one I just read from seatle7 have invaluable no bullshit advice. Read them over and over. I can relate to them in so many ways. Great posts guys.

Most people, I was oneí really donít understand how difficult and how long it takes. I have friends asking me Ďcan I teach them to tradeí like itís a game of dominoes or something. If anyone plays golf I can use an anology. A pro golfer would spend many years practising their craft, even the top pros have full time coaches. I could ask a pro golfer to teach me how to play golf but I would have to spend at least the same amount of time he did , with him by my side, to even have a chance of getting anywhere near his level. I would also need the same mindset and the drive and will to succeed.


john5 View Post
"He who can does; he who cannot, teaches." - sure, as always, there're some exceptions, but it's true. Common sense tells you that in an arguably the most competitive industry people who sell books, courses, indicators, etc are not real traders.



The market will expose who you really are, not to others, but to yourself. And you might not like what you see. When you start trading, it's just you and the market. The market is the best clinical psychologist in existence. Fear, greed, all your little insecurities, it's all going to come out in full force and will affect your decision-making process and ability to pull the trigger at the right time. You can have the best trading equipment/educational knowledge in the world, but it is not going to make any difference if your mental game is not dialed in.

It goes without saying that screen time, a lot of practise and foundational knowledge are necessary to get started. Not to be successful, just to get started, but as with any professional field, the best players are the best, because they have mastered the mental game.

Take sports for example. On average, anybody who gets into NFL, NBA, etc are already playing on a high level, but they all are. There is no edge in that. In other words, there is no edge in speaking English in an English-speaking country. There is no edge in knowing everything there is to know about trading. All market players have the same knowledge, everybody is looking at the same charts and using the same indicators.

So why, on average, some teams/players, win more than others? Why some players stand out? While it isn't a secret, they don't usually talk about it during interviews or write a lot of books about it, but if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that their edge is the mental game. Bill Belichick mentions "mental toughness" for a reason. Some teams/players are clutch, while others crumble after things don't go their way.

Can you throw a pick 6 and act as if nothing happened on the next play? Can you throw several interceptions in one game and still believe in your process/skills, etc? Or are you going to start panicking and second-guessing yourself, your process and skills? Can you take a loss on a trade? Can you take several losses and reverse the position when necessary or are you going to panic, ignore your trading plan and hang on or add to a losing trade hoping that it will come back?

There is no edge in knowing how to trade. An edge is in execution and in your own head.



How would you know that this person knows how to trade? Unless you can get him to screen share with you in real time years of his actual financial statements, you wouldn't know.



Commodities? Would you start learning how to snowboard with a quad cork?

When the so-called "market wizards" were "wizards" nobody wrote books about them. Bill Belichick does not write books about how to be a coach or how to play a game. when he does write a book, you can bet that nobody is going to become the next Bill Belichick by reading his book.



Your first step should be not thinking about trading commodities. Trade ES, RTY, or NQ. If you cannot be consistently profitable trading ES, you will not be profitable trading commodities.



I would not recommend any of those books.



Thinkorswim (TOS): The easiest way to get started. After you really master TOS and find it limiting, NinjaTrader 8.



Would you ask Tom Brady to explain to you his methodologies and to give you a step-by-step guide to throwing a ball? No, right? Why? Because in order to even ask a question, at the very least, you need to be on the same field with him. But assuming you're Drew Brees and actually can ask him a question, would you do that?

Does it really matter what I do and what my methodologies are? You are not trading me, you're trading the market. Which means you need to learn how the market works, why the price of ES goes up or down at any given time.

So where should you start in my opinion? If you're starting from scratch and basically don't know anything about the market and how it works, believe it or not, I would start simply by watching CNBC all day for at least one week. I am talking about literally watching CNBC for 5 trading days starting 30 minutes before the market opens and stopping watching CNBC 30/45 minutes after the market close.

Why would you want to do that? You are not going to learn anything about trading by doing this. But you will learn about different components of the market and how they influence and interact with each other. The goal is to have a conceptual understanding of what moves the market up or down. If you don't want to do that, I can give you a little shortcut.

1) Learn about the Federal Reserve's policies and why they are so influential. Read FOMC minutes and make sure that you understand what every word means.

2) Learn how the bonds work, specifically ZN.

3) There is an inverse correlation between ZN and ES, RTY. Study it and make sure that you really understand how this inverse correlation works.

4) Learn the Volume Market Profile.

5) Learn about market breadth. If you want to trade RTY, for example, watch intraday $TIKRL, $ADRLD and $VOLRLD on 3 minutes.

6) Setup your Thinkorswim to display full data intraday (including Globex, an overnight session) on 15 or 30 minutes. Put the market profile on it. Have two screens, one with daily/intraday profile and another one that shows a Weekly profile. Add SMA 50 (simple moving average) on an intraday chart of ES or RTY on 15 or 30 minutes and watch what the price does around SMA 50. Add VWAP. Understand what the VWAP shows and how it works.

7) Setup another screen that plots ZN with the same settings as above for ES or RTY.

Obviously, this is just the basics to get started, but I hope you'll find it useful.



Last edited by Fxfutures1976; February 2nd, 2019 at 04:10 PM.
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  #45 (permalink)
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seattle7 View Post
I can comment only on what has worked for me, although, frankly, I would not expect anyone to believe any of it might work for anyone else, as I believe the trading process is highly individual.

1. Lots and lots (years) of psychotherapy, to come to some realization within myself of who I am, what I want, what I don't want, my fears, my joys, etc. I know this may sound phony baloney, but the more I got to know and accept and become accountable to myself, the better trader I became. I am blind to what I don't want to see and acknowledge about myself. That's what therapy is for --- recognition and acceptance of personal blind spots and becoming accountable for them.

2. My trading advanced by leaps and bounds when I abandoned all indicators and began to analyse the market directly, using only its independent variables, price and volume, and their inter-relationships. Relying on indicators cost me some twenty years of unproductive time (although with my quantitative background, SB MIT, PhD Caltech, the belief that indicators might be productive is highly addictive to me).

3. My trading also advanced leaps and bounds when I shifted my focus from "making money" to "being the best trader I could be." That meant:

a) Developing an objective, rule-based, predetermined system that consistently had shown by extensive backtesting substantial profit over a substantial period of time. And:

b) Learning how to execute the system flawlessly while keeping my emotions in check.

Thus my goal was not "to make money trading." It was to develop my trading system and then to execute it flawlessly. If I could do that, I would become a "successful trader" in my own mind. What became of that in terms of dollars was irrelevant. The money no longer mattered. What mattered was only what I could control, and I cannot control the market.

4. Lastly, trading became much more enjoyable and less stressful after I had obtained sufficient funds from other activities such that I did not have to rely on my trading for my financial security.

I wish you my best along your journey.

Richard Wills, a student of the S&P 500 futures market since 1983

1. Maby I should try this, but I think it could get expensive though

2. Yhea I have read that many places, so I will try to not use any indicators.
At least in the beginning.

3. Yes I am using a simulation account now, and will continue to do so until I see some long term results.

4. Yes I have a job with a lot of spare time. (2 weeks work and then 4 weeks off.)
So I will always have my paychecks to rely on.

Thank you Richard!

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  #46 (permalink)
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Fxfutures1976 View Post
First of all , you need to be very passionate and obsessive with your goal to be a constantly profitable Trader.

Trading will also be more suited to the naturally patient and disciplined and those that are not afraid to take risks. If you can afford to lose money, If that sounds like you, then give yourself at least 3 years , with no guarantees and start very basic.

Trade micro lots, only after you have gained some consistency on the sim.

There is no doubt that the vast majority of people that are consistently profitable have worked their ass off for many years with desperate times of struggling to be consistent.

With all due respect, I would not disclose the fine details of my methods and what works for me because I worked so hard to get where I am and it was brutal.

I can tell you that I had not much patience , which was a disadvantage, but I have huge drive to succeed, discipline and totally obsessed with Trading.

Do not buy any course or learn to trade crap as the people who are hosting those types of courses will NOT be able to teach you as they are most definitely not profitable them selves.

Good luck.

Thanks!

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  #47 (permalink)
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MJM77 View Post
Hi Lavrans. Let me start off with some career advice. Set about changing your job so that you can have some level of enjoyment in your 9-5. Second, give up this pipe-dream of being a successful trader. There I know it's not what you want to hear but I believe happiness & a better life balance comes down that route.

You have tried FX but rejected that market & think that commodities will be a better market to trade. But there are just as many charlatans in commodities as FX and it's just as hard to trade as FX. Indeed ALL the big players trade both - they go where the profit lies. You were too easily defeated for my liking & it shows a mental weakness which will probably mean you will never 'make it' as a trader. Look at Cloudy (in this thread) he courageously admitted to not being profitable last year & he's been doing it for 10 years!

I have studied the trading markets for some 5 years and it is my opinion that the average 'man-in-the-street' will not make a successful trader. I would guess that a very very small % of members on this site are actually consistently profitable.

If you reject everything I say above then I would suggest you do the following. Open a free NT account & trade in sim mode - if you are profitable over a 6 month period (Yes 6 months & EVERY trade included) then you can think about putting real money in the markets. If you can't be profitable over 6 months in sim then you have no right to say your methods have a real edge in the markets. And it is only when you have a genuine edge that you have any chance of making a consistent profit. Don't think there is a rush, you must do your apprenticeship & you must prove to yourself that you have a genuine edge. The markets are not going away so do not rush to use real money - the markets will be there for you in 6 months - all you have to do is find the edge.

I admit that I cannot find an edge & so have not committed any money to the markets. But at least I haven't lost money & I can still search for my edge.

Sorry for seeming to be pessimistic but think of Cloudy - he obviously doesn't have an edge on the markets as over a 12 month period he lost money, and he's an elite member of this site. (Hey Cloudy so sorry to pick on you but you where the one who admitted to loses and was just being honest - Good luck to you). So be hard on yourself, this is not a game. If I can't profit in sim then don't compete at all.

Thanks!

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  #48 (permalink)
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foxy View Post
I don't normally post but if you are genuine here goes:-
Think who is making a margin in this business, you are competing against professional institutional traders and the few successful private traders. The rest just give their money back to the markets. Any business should seek a profitable margin whether this comes from the market they're in or have a service people want/need , hence the numerous educators and book sellers found in trading i.e. Selling a product on mass or subscription based services like fintech.
Personally I stripped all indicators away from trading charts and after thousands of hours trading realise they're are few value areas of profit which include TA and fundamentals. You are competing against execution orders controlled by computers or experience intravday traders who are highly capitalised and very skilled at what they do. Why would a senior trader making serious money teach? They don't , well not directly.
There are a few more robust techniques but will always in lude trade management as an absolute skill , because you will have losing positions. Do not trade one contract, except to learn, as you will not have opportunity value in your trading and multi asset or contract is your edge as a private trader.
I will not promote any services here because you have to find out yourself which is a journey to have confidence in your trading. They do exist.
Success will be found if you have a genuine will to be a good trader. They're are easier ways to make money and you will save a fortune and time to learn something you can call a skil or build A genuine business.
Why am I saying this ? Because I have been in the financial industry for 30 years.
I admire your ambition to seek financial freedom etc but trading is not a route to be taken without full commitment and a sizeable amount of existing capital and a very stubborn character. However , smart money does not follow sheep and don't be a salmon. . Good luck

Thank you for your tips and kind words Foxy!

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  #49 (permalink)
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centaurer View Post
To me the best quote is
"The first $100k is a real bitch"
--Charlie Munger


If I started over I wouldn't start trading until I had $100k of capital, I would just dollar cost average into the index. Once you have a $100k then when you compound out another $10k start using that to trade in a separate account.

Without a $100k your profit is just too much a % of life expenses that there is too big an opportunity cost to learn to trade with that money.

If you blow up the $10k account , wait to compound out another one from your capital. Worst case scenario then is you quit trading and just let your $100k compound.

It probably also keeps you from trading much in your 20s. I had such delusional ideas about trading in my 20s.

Thank you for the tips, but I dont know where to get 100k.
Let alone that sounds very scary, to start trading with that much money without nowing that I'm profitable.

For now I will be using the simulation account ))

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  #50 (permalink)
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john5 View Post
"He who can does; he who cannot, teaches." - sure, as always, there're some exceptions, but it's true. Common sense tells you that in an arguably the most competitive industry people who sell books, courses, indicators, etc are not real traders.

Agree!

The market will expose who you really are, not to others, but to yourself. And you might not like what you see. When you start trading, it's just you and the market. The market is the best clinical psychologist in existence. Fear, greed, all your little insecurities, it's all going to come out in full force and will affect your decision-making process and ability to pull the trigger at the right time. You can have the best trading equipment/educational knowledge in the world, but it is not going to make any difference if your mental game is not dialed in.

I'm ready to be exposed.

It goes without saying that screen time, a lot of practise and foundational knowledge are necessary to get started. Not to be successful, just to get started, but as with any professional field, the best players are the best, because they have mastered the mental game.

Good point

Take sports for example. On average, anybody who gets into NFL, NBA, etc are already playing on a high level, but they all are. There is no edge in that. In other words, there is no edge in speaking English in an English-speaking country. There is no edge in knowing everything there is to know about trading. All market players have the same knowledge, everybody is looking at the same charts and using the same indicators.

Good point

So why, on average, some teams/players, win more than others? Why some players stand out? While it isn't a secret, they don't usually talk about it during interviews or write a lot of books about it, but if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that their edge is the mental game. Bill Belichick mentions "mental toughness" for a reason. Some teams/players are clutch, while others crumble after things don't go their way.

Good point

Can you throw a pick 6 and act as if nothing happened on the next play? Can you throw several interceptions in one game and still believe in your process/skills, etc? Or are you going to start panicking and second-guessing yourself, your process and skills? Can you take a loss on a trade? Can you take several losses and reverse the position when necessary or are you going to panic, ignore your trading plan and hang on or add to a losing trade hoping that it will come back?

I think I have the right mindset and thougness to be a good trader.

There is no edge in knowing how to trade. An edge is in execution and in your own head.


That is true, but I cant get a edge if I dont even try.


How would you know that this person knows how to trade? Unless you can get him to screen share with you in real time years of his actual financial statements, you wouldn't know.

I guess sometimes you just have to believe in people.

Commodities? Would you start learning how to snowboard with a quad cork?

If a quad cork was the only thing I ever saw, yes probably.

When the so-called "market wizards" were "wizards" nobody wrote books about them. Bill Belichick does not write books about how to be a coach or how to play a game. when he does write a book, you can bet that nobody is going to become the next Bill Belichick by reading his book.

Are you saying that there is absolute no value in reading books what so ever for people who are completely new to trading?

Your first step should be not thinking about trading commodities. Trade ES, RTY, or NQ. If you cannot be consistently profitable trading ES, you will not be profitable trading commodities.

Why is commodities so much harder?

I would not recommend any of those books.

Why, have you read them?

Thinkorswim (TOS): The easiest way to get started. After you really master TOS and find it limiting, NinjaTrader 8.

Thanks

Would you ask Tom Brady to explain to you his methodologies and to give you a step-by-step guide to throwing a ball? No, right? Why? Because in order to even ask a question, at the very least, you need to be on the same field with him. But assuming you're Drew Brees and actually can ask him a question, would you do that?

I would definetively ask him that question if my goal was to throw a ball.

Does it really matter what I do and what my methodologies are? You are not trading me, you're trading the market. Which means you need to learn how the market works, why the price of ES goes up or down at any given time.

Good point

So where should you start in my opinion? If you're starting from scratch and basically don't know anything about the market and how it works, believe it or not, I would start simply by watching CNBC all day for at least one week. I am talking about literally watching CNBC for 5 trading days starting 30 minutes before the market opens and stopping watching CNBC 30/45 minutes after the market close.

Thanks, I will watch cnbc.

Why would you want to do that? You are not going to learn anything about trading by doing this. But you will learn about different components of the market and how they influence and interact with each other. The goal is to have a conceptual understanding of what moves the market up or down. If you don't want to do that, I can give you a little shortcut.

Yes that makes a lot of sense.

1) Learn about the Federal Reserve's policies and why they are so influential. Read FOMC minutes and make sure that you understand what every word means.

2) Learn how the bonds work, specifically ZN.

3) There is an inverse correlation between ZN and ES, RTY. Study it and make sure that you really understand how this inverse correlation works.

4) Learn the Volume Market Profile.

5) Learn about market breadth. If you want to trade RTY, for example, watch intraday $TIKRL, $ADRLD and $VOLRLD on 3 minutes.

6) Setup your Thinkorswim to display full data intraday (including Globex, an overnight session) on 15 or 30 minutes. Put the market profile on it. Have two screens, one with daily/intraday profile and another one that shows a Weekly profile. Add SMA 50 (simple moving average) on an intraday chart of ES or RTY on 15 or 30 minutes and watch what the price does around SMA 50. Add VWAP. Understand what the VWAP shows and how it works.

7) Setup another screen that plots ZN with the same settings as above for ES or RTY.

Obviously, this is just the basics to get started, but I hope you'll find it useful.


Thank you for the post

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