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A bull flag is not predictive of the trend continuing. Just because you get a pull pack in a trend and then a bounce does not increase the odds of the trend continuing.
However, you do get a nice risk/reward situation for a bet with a clearly defined spot to get out.
A triangle is just a decrease in volatility and then the same thing happens. You get a nice risk/reward situation with an easy to define spot to get out if you are wrong.
TA becomes a problem IMO when people try to find predictive chart patterns. The whole point of a market is to discount all current information into the current price so it is just not logical there are to be exact predictive repeating patterns. Everyone would trade those patterns until the pattern is no longer predictive because that is the whole point of a the market to start with.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
First of all , you need to be very passionate and obsessive with your goal to be a constantly profitable Trader.
Trading will also be more suited to the naturally patient and disciplined and those that are not afraid to take risks. If you can afford to lose money, If that sounds like you, then give yourself at least 3 years , with no guarantees and start very basic.
Trade micro lots, only after you have gained some consistency on the sim.
There is no doubt that the vast majority of people that are consistently profitable have worked their ass off for many years with desperate times of struggling to be consistent.
With all due respect, I would not disclose the fine details of my methods and what works for me because I worked so hard to get where I am and it was brutal.
I can tell you that I had not much patience , which was a disadvantage, but I have huge drive to succeed, discipline and totally obsessed with Trading.
Do not buy any course or learn to trade crap as the people who are hosting those types of courses will NOT be able to teach you as they are most definitely not profitable them selves.
Hi Lavrans. Let me start off with some career advice. Set about changing your job so that you can have some level of enjoyment in your 9-5. Second, give up this pipe-dream of being a successful trader. There I know it's not what you want to hear but I believe happiness & a better life balance comes down that route.
You have tried FX but rejected that market & think that commodities will be a better market to trade. But there are just as many charlatans in commodities as FX and it's just as hard to trade as FX. Indeed ALL the big players trade both - they go where the profit lies. You were too easily defeated for my liking & it shows a mental weakness which will probably mean you will never 'make it' as a trader. Look at Cloudy (in this thread) he courageously admitted to not being profitable last year & he's been doing it for 10 years!
I have studied the trading markets for some 5 years and it is my opinion that the average 'man-in-the-street' will not make a successful trader. I would guess that a very very small % of members on this site are actually consistently profitable.
If you reject everything I say above then I would suggest you do the following. Open a free NT account & trade in sim mode - if you are profitable over a 6 month period (Yes 6 months & EVERY trade included) then you can think about putting real money in the markets. If you can't be profitable over 6 months in sim then you have no right to say your methods have a real edge in the markets. And it is only when you have a genuine edge that you have any chance of making a consistent profit. Don't think there is a rush, you must do your apprenticeship & you must prove to yourself that you have a genuine edge. The markets are not going away so do not rush to use real money - the markets will be there for you in 6 months - all you have to do is find the edge.
I admit that I cannot find an edge & so have not committed any money to the markets. But at least I haven't lost money & I can still search for my edge.
Sorry for seeming to be pessimistic but think of Cloudy - he obviously doesn't have an edge on the markets as over a 12 month period he lost money, and he's an elite member of this site. (Hey Cloudy so sorry to pick on you but you where the one who admitted to loses and was just being honest - Good luck to you). So be hard on yourself, this is not a game. If I can't profit in sim then don't compete at all.
I don't normally post but if you are genuine here goes:-
Think who is making a margin in this business, you are competing against professional institutional traders and the few successful private traders. The rest just give their money back to the markets. Any business should seek a profitable margin whether this comes from the market they're in or have a service people want/need , hence the numerous educators and book sellers found in trading i.e. Selling a product on mass or subscription based services like fintech.
Personally I stripped all indicators away from trading charts and after thousands of hours trading realise they're are few value areas of profit which include TA and fundamentals. You are competing against execution orders controlled by computers or experience intravday traders who are highly capitalised and very skilled at what they do. Why would a senior trader making serious money teach? They don't , well not directly.
There are a few more robust techniques but will always in lude trade management as an absolute skill , because you will have losing positions. Do not trade one contract, except to learn, as you will not have opportunity value in your trading and multi asset or contract is your edge as a private trader.
I will not promote any services here because you have to find out yourself which is a journey to have confidence in your trading. They do exist.
Success will be found if you have a genuine will to be a good trader. They're are easier ways to make money and you will save a fortune and time to learn something you can call a skil or build A genuine business.
Why am I saying this ? Because I have been in the financial industry for 30 years.
I admire your ambition to seek financial freedom etc but trading is not a route to be taken without full commitment and a sizeable amount of existing capital and a very stubborn character. However , smart money does not follow sheep and don't be a salmon. . Good luck
Yhea I will say that I'm pretty patient and disiplined, and definetively not afraid to take risks.
Im usually very obsessibe about everything that can earn money, maby sometimes too much.
I have had some companies in the past and have felt burned out in peroids.
Yes I have installed the ninja sim now and I am watching Damian Castilla's videos on youtube while Im practicing.
I understand very well that you won't disclose your methods my friend
But can you please explain your road to being profitable?
Like what books/information should I read, how much should be practicing, what should I focus most on etc etc?
that is not a very good place to start. you will stand a better chance swing trading . if you can not trade of the monthly,weekly,daily,240min. time frames , its not likely your going to be able to trade inter-daily . trading gaps,news, using advanced order flow charting. ect.ect. . once you master the longer time frames , you can trade around those concepts inter-daily . FX and futures are not as easy to start trading for a new trader as bonds an low bata stocks. if you can not trade the 30 year T-bond and star bucks your not likely to trade crude oil and FX pairs .hope it helps
Books are great just to get the general concepts down. When it comes to strategies just watch the overall market itself and get a feel for and then practice practice practice. Generic Trader is a good cheap broker and then can use Think or Swim for charting. Commodities rely heavily on tick charts and you can clearly see the patterns that the algos and smart money use to map out future price action using past price action. It takes a while to learn but it is well worth it.
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