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100% Gain in One Month
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100% Gain in One Month

  #11 (permalink)
Taipei, Taiwan
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Custom
Broker/Data: IB/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: HG
 
Posts: 30 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 21 given, 24 received

The law of large number

In February, I made 100% on my account. So for March, I asked whether to

1. Increase my position sizing.
2. Decrease my position sizing.
3. Stay with the same position sizing for consistency.
4. Just sit out.

Well, now it's April and the results are in. I knew I was on an unusual lucky streak and I was right. I had a gut feeling I should sit out during March but decided to maintain the same position size for consistency. It turns out my gut feeling is right. February was just too good to repeat. From March to now, I lost 50% of the profit made during February.

So instead of netting 100% in February, my results drops to netting 50% in 2 months. It is still good. But profitability reverting to its average is probably the inevitable result of the law of large number. I guess this is a reminder that you should just walk away from the casino after an unusually lucky winning streak because you know your luck won't last forever.

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  #12 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
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oasisjoe View Post
In February, I made 100% on my account. So for March, I asked whether to

1. Increase my position sizing.
2. Decrease my position sizing.
3. Stay with the same position sizing for consistency.
4. Just sit out.

Well, now it's April and the results are in. I knew I was on an unusual lucky streak and I was right. I had a gut feeling I should sit out during March but decided to maintain the same position size for consistency. It turns out my gut feeling is right. February was just too good to repeat. From March to now, I lost 50% of the profit made during February.

So instead of netting 100% in February, my results drops to netting 50% in 2 months. It is still good. But profitability reverting to its average is probably the inevitable result of the law of large number. I guess this is a reminder that you should just walk away from the casino after an unusually lucky winning streak because you know your luck won't last forever.

A month ago I wrote:

"To me this seems to be a clear sign that you are overtrading. That you should reduce the size of your trades significantly and permanently."

This statement is confirmed by your recent post.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #13 (permalink)
Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker/Data: IB & Iqfeed
Favorite Futures: ES , CL
 
sptrader's Avatar
 
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Personally, I reduce the position size based on market volatility in order to maintain relatively constant risk.

Your system shouldn't be risking more than 1%-2% of your account size on any single trade, making the risk of ruin nearly impossible.
Sounds like you have a great system, you just need to control the risk a little better. Profits take care of themselves.

glty

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  #14 (permalink)
Paris France + Dresden Germany
 
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Palais Brongniart's Avatar
 
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Worldwide there are no more than 100 traders AND hedge fonds, who have a hit rate of 75% permanently for over 20 years. They are the kings.
Everything else is a lie or a coming bankruptcy or both.


oasisjoe View Post
It is now March and I just received my February statement. Apparently, I've just double my account balance last month, which is the same as saying I made 100% profit last month. I've crashed twice before. I made back the loss one time before, effectively doubling my balance, though in a much longer period. But in one month. That's unreal.

I knew my automated system is on a roll. The average win rate should only be 75%, but this month win rate is more like 90%. I even wanted to reduce position sizing last week because statistically this high win rate should end anytime. I wanted to say that I am the man. But I know the overly favorable gain is probably due temporary market flavor rather than the result of my hard work.

So the real question comes. For March, should I

1. Increase my position sizing.
2. Decrease my position sizing.
3. Stay with the same position sizing for consistency.
4. Just sit out.

I am still deciding between 2 and 3. It is tempting to want to increase my position sizing. I can possibly make more money now that market is in my favor. But I've crashed twice before with gambler's ruin by always go for maximum position sizing. Has temptation taught me anything?


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  #15 (permalink)
Paris France + Dresden Germany
 
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Palais Brongniart's Avatar
 
Posts: 157 since Mar 2018
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I have to correct myself. It's maybe 20 traders or less who achieve regularly 75% over 20 years on average.
If I remember correctly that number corresponds to those achieving 30% yield on average over 20 years.

That's from talks with high ranking individuals I did.

You can derive those numbers mathematically.

Imagine 10.000 traders. Half of them lose, half of them wins. You take the losers out, remains 5000 next year. Again 50/50 win/loss, take the losers out. Remain 2500 next year. After 5 years you have 313 constantly winning traders left.

Not that unrealistic, heh?


Palais Brongniart View Post
Worldwide there are no more than 100 traders AND hedge fonds, who have a hit rate of 75% permanently for over 20 years. They are the kings.
Everything else is a lie or a coming bankruptcy or both.


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  #16 (permalink)
Los Angeles, California
 
 
Posts: 24 since Mar 2017
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How did the strategy adjustments go after a few months?

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  #17 (permalink)
Taipei, Taiwan
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: IB/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: HG
 
Posts: 30 since Jul 2014
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miktrading View Post
How did the strategy adjustments go after a few months?

To recap, I made 100% on my account in February. Then I lost 50% of those profit by April. Well, it is now the end of June and I've finally made back to the height I made at the end of February. There was no adjustment made to position sizing. I pretty much went with the same size. But after 50% of my profit was lost in April, a new strategy which had a more profitable backtest was added to the mix. It turned out return would be better this month if I had stick to the old
portfolio and didn't change a thing. Having said that, I will continue to back this new strategy because it seems promising in backtest, but just not spectacular this month.

On a side note, gambling is addictive. Making 100% in one month was exciting. It was more like gambling in a blackjack table and you expect to either to get double or nothing. I kind of hope to get that adrenaline-packed feeling again but didn't and probably won't for a long time as diversification of strategies tends to dull out earning.

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