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Energies
Updated: Views / Replies:3,579 / 55
Created: by myrrdin Attachments:8

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Energies

  #51 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
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I started buying some relatively cheap NGH C3 options.

Winter is far away, and temperatures in December / January / February are unknown today. But there were many years when NGH moved above 3.0 some time in winter.

In case NG price moves further down even lower strike prices might become interesting.

I intend to sell half of the options with a profit of 100 % to have a free trade for the remaining options.

Best regard,s Myrrdin

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  #52 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
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CLV19-CLZ19

@myrrdin, and others, I'd love your opinion on CLV19-CLZ19.

It's risen a lot in a couple of weeks. Thoughts?

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  #53 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
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zxcv64 View Post
@myrrdin, and others, I'd love your opinion on CLV19-CLZ19.

It's risen a lot in a couple of weeks. Thoughts?

According to the seasonal charts, the spread should move downwards. But it has not followed the seasonals nicely in recent months.

COT data is neutral.

I do not see a good reason to enter this trade. Do you inend to buy or to sell the spread ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #54 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
Thanks: 151 given, 59 received

I've just seen it this morning and was thinking about selling the spread on a technical basis only. I couldn't figure out the fundamental reasons why this has risen so much recently - maybe the bearish CL fundamentals (eg. Russia removing an export duty on crude etc etc) apply more to the Z contract than the earlier ones??

I will do it on a small allocation.

(A year ago, I did a similar technical trade, and that worked out pretty well.
https://futures.io/commodities-futures-trading/31477-commodity-spreads-9.html#post684090)

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  #55 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
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I don't have an opinion on the subject (V-Z) but as I showed in this chart last week, CL definitely seems to be pricing in a multi year supply-demand change which I would suggest is driven by the macro opinion of a global slowdown. I say this as things like the Eurodollar curve have a same shape. So maybe the V-Z increase is more a function of Z coming under more pressure from the curve shape change, rather than a strong fundamental reason?


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  #56 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received


zxcv64 View Post
I've just seen it this morning and was thinking about selling the spread on a technical basis only. I couldn't figure out the fundamental reasons why this has risen so much recently - maybe the bearish CL fundamentals (eg. Russia removing an export duty on crude etc etc) apply more to the Z contract than the earlier ones??

I will do it on a small allocation.

(A year ago, I did a similar technical trade, and that worked out pretty well.
https://futures.io/commodities-futures-trading/31477-commodity-spreads-9.html#post684090)

I do not have an opinion on this spread, and I currently do not hold any position in CL.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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