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Energies
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Created: by myrrdin Attachments:9

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Energies

  #41 (permalink)
Virginia
 
 
Posts: 42 since Oct 2010
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Refinery Outage

Not an energy expert by any means, but I dug into that huge HO/RB spread, and a news article said that there was a major refiner in the northeast that had to shutdown due to a fire. HO inventories may not be enough to serve the market until either the refinery comes back up, or they can get barges up the coast. RB inventories should be fine, hence the violent action in the spread.

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  #42 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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If I interpret this CME Performance Bond Requirement (aka margin) changes correctly it is saying that they are increasing the volatility scan ranges for most oil options effective after the close of business on November 15, 2018. ie Margin requirements for most Options will go up.

https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/clearing/2018/11/Chadv18-452.pdf

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  #43 (permalink)
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Sorry should have put this in the first post, but didn't realize they sent these out in different announcements.

In addition CL, HO, RB outright margins also going up $450

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2018/11/Chadv18-453.html#pageNumber=1

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  #44 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Reuters/Kemp: - Oil market roiled by too much gasoline, not enough diesel

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-prices-kemp/oil-market-roiled-by-too-much...iesel-kemp-idUSKCN1NL1L2

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  #45 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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The only trade I hold in the energies is a Crude Oil short option spread:

CLU +P43 -P47 -C76 +C82

I used the higher volatility in early My to sell this strangle.

I intend to take a long position in Natural Gas at a lower price.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #46 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
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November and December 2018 I was buying the dip and I was bullish and quite sure that 58 on the brent will hold, then sure that 50 should hold and I used at a time for a short period up to 3 long futures in addition to my 3 naked put options to be successful.
The situation has changed or at least I keep in mind my Elliott waves (can be a wave 3 or can be a wave C with 40 -45 as objectives) and I am ready to intervene but I will be cautious because I do not have strong conviction this time. I have only a short spread put option at 58 - 55 so my potential losses in July are limited, but still...
The fundamental is weak as global growth is slowing and US production is high. There are rumors that some countries can still import some Iranian oil up to a certain and unspecified quantity. The WTI COT does not talk to me too much (no recent extreme, nothing remarkable). Of course the MM are decreasing their bullish positions.
So far I prefer trading the Brent than WTI but it is almost the same analysis anyway.
Any opinion, input?
Concerning NG it may be the time/will be soon the time to explore a slightly bullish option view for the end of the year.
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Last edited by Sagal; June 1st, 2019 at 05:17 AM.
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  #47 (permalink)
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Sagal View Post
November and December 2018 I was buying the dip and I was bullish and quite sure that 58 on the brent will hold, then sure that 50 should hold and I used at a time for a short period up to 3 long futures in addition to my 3 naked put options to be successful.
The situation has changed or at least I keep in mind my Elliott waves (can be a wave 3 or can be a wave C with 40 -45 as objectives) and I am ready to intervene but I will be cautious because I do not have strong conviction this time. I have only a short spread put option at 58 - 55 so my potential losses in July are limited, but still...
The fundamental is weak as global growth is slowing and US production is high. There are rumors that some countries can still import some Iranian oil up to a certain and unspecified quantity. The WTI COT does not talk to me too much (no recent extreme, nothing remarkable). Of course the MM are decreasing their bullish positions.
So far I prefer trading the Brent than WTI but it is almost the same analysis anyway.
Any opinion, input?
Concerning NG it may be the time/will be soon the time to explore a slightly bullish option view for the end of the year.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

After liquidating my CL and NG option positions soon after entry, I do not hold any position in the energies.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #48 (permalink)
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RBOB Gasoline

Entered the RBV-RBU19 spread yesterday based on seasonal pattern.

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  #49 (permalink)
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Kruger View Post
Entered the RBV-RBU19 spread yesterday based on seasonal pattern.

I also hold this spread, based on seasonal charts.

Additionally I just closed some RBV-CLV spreads profitably.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #50 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I had sold some NGV put spreads (NGV P2.05-1.8, P2-1.75 and P1.9-1.65) some weeks ago, and added the short NGV C2.9-3.2 to form a strangle.

I intend to buy back the puts with around 75 % and the calls with around 50 % of potential profit.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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