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Energies
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Created: by myrrdin Attachments:6

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Energies

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
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CLX8-CLG9

Entered the CLX8-CLG9 spread at 46 on 18 Sept. Exited on 21 Sep at 85. Spread continued to climb to 150 then fell back to close at 99.


Last edited by Kruger; September 24th, 2018 at 11:21 AM.
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  #22 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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zxcv64 View Post
This week, I opened the NGZ8-NGK9 spread, which should come down in value over the next month from a technical and seasonal point of view. Will need to keep a close eye on fundamentals of course.

You still in, or did you bail?

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  #23 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
You still in, or did you bail?


I have a rule of closing when the potential loss hits a certain level - but in this case, I have ignored that rule. So am still holding. It's a very small position so I am not losing any sleep over it.


In fact, the whole energy sector has been very bullish, be it GC, CL, HO, or RB, and this is resulting in paper losses on some other trades that I hold. I am surprised that there has not been more discussion on this forum, cos I'm sure there are opportunities being thrown up by the recent bullishness.

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  #24 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Good luck to you. NG has a had a decent move the last few weeks. I'm not sure what to think from here. Still need to see how the fundamentals pan out. Looks like we are going into winter with the least amount of storage in over a decade (by quite a lot, 9-10%!) - of course that is partially offset by production being the highest it's ever been.

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  #25 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Good luck to you. NG has a had a decent move the last few weeks. I'm not sure what to think from here. Still need to see how the fundamentals pan out. Looks like we are going into winter with the least amount of storage in over a decade (by quite a lot, 9-10%!) - of course that is partially offset by production being the highest it's ever been.



It is getting volatile at the current level. If I am reading it right -17.5% on inventories compared to the 5-year average.

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

I wonder what is the % on production?

Despite this data Commercials are showing Net Short...?



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  #26 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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ICE trades today
EIA 10/11 +93 ... which would be 10-15 BCF higher than usual
EIA 10/18 +82 ... which would be 10 BCF higher than usual
EIA 10/25 +61 ... which would be normal
End of Season 11/08 traded 3250 which is higher than I've seen some models but would still be 200 below 2008 which is the 12 year low.

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  #27 (permalink)
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I bought a few UNG Puts today and now I think I am in a bit of a difficulty... LOL
Thats why I got interested in this thread. LOL
Small position though, just trying new stuff.

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  #28 (permalink)
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Backwardation from February

@myrrdin @SMCJB would you guys know why the forward curve goes to backwardation from February?
I know it gets closer to spring season BUT with Natural Gas being as expensive as it is to store, I am surprised those prices are lower than current...

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  #29 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Nov-Mar US consumes more than it produces
Apr-Oct US produces more than it consumes

At the end of March, if we don't have enough gas in storage, prices (for March) are dictated by scarcity economics. On the other hand if we do have enough in storage, the gas left in storage becomes the first injection month for the following year.

This is why leading up to, and often in the Winter, March trades at a premium to April. As we progress through Winter though and it becomes more and more obvious that we will have enough gas, that premium decays and march often finishes below April.

March/April is known as the widowmaker. Amaranth & Motherrock are two well publicized hedge fund blow ups caused by March/April.

I haven't updated this chart in a year, but I think you will get the picture. (And yes those are $3 spread prices, not outright prices!)

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  #30 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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In the energies I currently hold the following positions:

RBG-HOG
This trade is favored by the seasonal charts. I was stopped out of this trade with a loss some time ago, and re-entered yesterday. This is one of my most profitable trades over the years, although it is difficult to find the best time to enter.

RBJ-RBF, HOH-HOZ
Both trades are suggested by MRCI. Especially the chart for the HO spread follows the seasonal chart nicely since April 2018.

NGH-NGF
The spread reached an extreme level some days ago, and is now on its was back to normal. I was lucky to buy it on 4th of October with a very close stop below the most recent low. High risk trade - thus small size. I will exit immediately if the spread is beginning to move against me.

(CL Calls)
I bought back various CL call spreads last week with a nice profit.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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