How to get seasonal probabilities?

November 28th, 2017, 09:45 PM

I am very intrigued how some members here are able to grab some juicy probabilities on some commodity trades.

For example, its sometimes cited something like "the Jan-Mar spread has paid 14/15 times in the past 15 years, average win is $1500 holding to end of month and max heat is -$1000 with a loss"

These types of seasonal probabilities are what I'm looking for. Can somebody please help me and guide me in the right direction?

(Note: I have access to any Commodity available and I use CQG)

But for simplicity, I guess it would be nice to start with Brent (QO) or WTI (CL)?

Thanks for the help

November 29th, 2017, 02:17 AM

I get seasonal charts from MRCI for many years. They offer seasonals for outright Futures and for spreads as well as for the volatility of commoditiy futures.

But be aware that trading their trade suggestions blindly might not be the most successful way to trade seasonals. You might want to have a look at the thread "Seasonal Trades" in the Commodity Section.

Best regards, Myrrdin

November 29th, 2017, 03:58 AM

You could also start looking at cycle analysis (like the work of John Ehlers)

November 29th, 2017, 04:02 AM

Seasonalgo also offers seasonal charts.

Best regards, Myrrdin

November 29th, 2017, 01:22 PM

I like Investor RT for statistical work. PM me if you need any help.

November 29th, 2017, 01:56 PM

Alexander Savin

I like Investor RT for statistical work. PM me if you need any help.

What does this software package offer in regard to seasonal trading ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

December 1st, 2017, 01:47 AM

There's a reason for each seasonal trade paying/not-paying right ??

For example, some super hot-months or low-supply of crop yields may come in various years?

How likely are you to stay ahead of the game by going off seasonal data since youre just assuming past-predicts-future ?

December 1st, 2017, 02:22 AM

s0mmi

There's a reason for each seasonal trade paying/not-paying right ??

For example, some super hot-months or low-supply of crop yields may come in various years?

How likely are you to stay ahead of the game by going off seasonal data since youre just assuming past-predicts-future ?

1. For me it works for many years.

2. Have a look at the thread "Seasonal Trades". Here the most important criteria are explained.

And: Yes, there is a fundamental reason for each seasonal trade.

Best regards, Myrrdin

January 2nd, 2018, 05:24 AM

s0mmi

I am very intrigued how some members here are able to grab some juicy probabilities on some commodity trades.

For example, its sometimes cited something like "the Jan-Mar spread has paid 14/15 times in the past 15 years, average win is $1500 holding to end of month and max heat is -$1000 with a loss"

These types of seasonal probabilities are what I'm looking for. Can somebody please help me and guide me in the right direction?

(Note: I have access to any Commodity available and I use CQG)

But for simplicity, I guess it would be nice to start with Brent (QO) or WTI (CL)?

Thanks for the help

Hi, you may try out a software called "Trademiner" (https://trademiner.com/) which is not too expensive. But I wouldn't use it as single base for trading, although helpful regarding seasonals.

How to get seasonal probabilities?

Discussion in Commodities

How to get seasonal probabilities?