How to get seasonal probabilities? - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


How to get seasonal probabilities?
Updated: Views / Replies:190 / 8
Created: by s0mmi Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

How to get seasonal probabilities?

  #1 (permalink)
Cuckold of the Market
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Bonds of every country (AU/UK/CA/EU/US), Commodities (Soft, Hard, Metals), Currencies, Fuck the Dax
 
s0mmi's Avatar
 
Posts: 8 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 0 given, 15 received

How to get seasonal probabilities?

I am very intrigued how some members here are able to grab some juicy probabilities on some commodity trades.

For example, its sometimes cited something like "the Jan-Mar spread has paid 14/15 times in the past 15 years, average win is $1500 holding to end of month and max heat is -$1000 with a loss"

These types of seasonal probabilities are what I'm looking for. Can somebody please help me and guide me in the right direction?


(Note: I have access to any Commodity available and I use CQG)

But for simplicity, I guess it would be nice to start with Brent (QO) or WTI (CL)?




Thanks for the help

Reply With Quote
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,099 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,445 given, 1,301 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


I get seasonal charts from MRCI for many years. They offer seasonals for outright Futures and for spreads as well as for the volatility of commoditiy futures.

But be aware that trading their trade suggestions blindly might not be the most successful way to trade seasonals. You might want to have a look at the thread "Seasonal Trades" in the Commodity Section.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
eindhoven, the Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader, multicharts,
Broker/Data: IB, python
Favorite Futures: dax, ES, CL, AEX
 
Posts: 20 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 36 given, 6 received

You could also start looking at cycle analysis (like the work of John Ehlers)

Reply With Quote
 
  #5 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,099 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,445 given, 1,301 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Seasonalgo also offers seasonal charts.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #6 (permalink)
Elite Member
Europe
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: RTP, IRT
Favorite Futures: ZB, FGBL
 
Posts: 46 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 44 given, 44 received

I like Investor RT for statistical work. PM me if you need any help.

Reply With Quote
 
  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,099 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,445 given, 1,301 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Alexander Savin View Post
I like Investor RT for statistical work. PM me if you need any help.

What does this software package offer in regard to seasonal trading ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #8 (permalink)
Cuckold of the Market
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: Bonds of every country (AU/UK/CA/EU/US), Commodities (Soft, Hard, Metals), Currencies, Fuck the Dax
 
s0mmi's Avatar
 
Posts: 8 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 0 given, 15 received

There's a reason for each seasonal trade paying/not-paying right ??

For example, some super hot-months or low-supply of crop yields may come in various years?

How likely are you to stay ahead of the game by going off seasonal data since youre just assuming past-predicts-future ?

Reply With Quote
 
  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,099 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,445 given, 1,301 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


s0mmi View Post
There's a reason for each seasonal trade paying/not-paying right ??

For example, some super hot-months or low-supply of crop yields may come in various years?

How likely are you to stay ahead of the game by going off seasonal data since youre just assuming past-predicts-future ?

1. For me it works for many years.

2. Have a look at the thread "Seasonal Trades". Here the most important criteria are explained.

And: Yes, there is a fundamental reason for each seasonal trade.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > How to get seasonal probabilities?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Seasonal Trades myrrdin Commodities Futures Trading 96 December 1st, 2017 03:07 PM
Seasonal Commodity Spreads Bakes Trading Journals 7 January 19th, 2017 06:05 AM
Seasonal futures calendar spreads trading proman Trading Journals 4 September 10th, 2014 09:55 AM
Do you now your probabilities? no111 Psychology and Money Management 3 April 1st, 2012 06:40 PM
'Tis The Season For Seasonal Obfuscation Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 October 29th, 2011 07:30 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:59 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.08 seconds with 18 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.82.79.109