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Meats
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Created: by myrrdin Attachments:1

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Meats

  #41 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
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kareem40 View Post
Hi @myrrdin

Have you considered starting a journal? I would love to see your trades on regular bases. I know spreads are not a daily thing, but it would be nice to watch/follow with a journal.

Thanks
K

Thanks a lot for your interest. I thought about it, but until now I decided not to start.

The reason is that I trade many different things:

Commodity futures, options, future spreads, option spreads, stocks.
Seasonals, COT, supply & demand for futures and options.
Many future markets.
Three different systems for stock trading.

The only thing that is common for all of my trades is that my minimum target to hold a position is a month, and I prefer holding my positions for approx. 3 months or longer.

My time does not allow for writing a journal for all I do in trading. Thus I would have to choose a segment of my activities. Which again is difficult as the various segments interact with each other, as I often use one segment as a hedge for another one.

I did not find a good solution yet. But I will think about it during my vacations in Italy, which will begin soon.

Are there any current journals you are interested in ? I would like to have a look at them and see if I could learn something.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #42 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Dallas, TX
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
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myrrdin View Post
Thanks a lot for your interest. I thought about it, but until now I decided not to start.

The reason is that I trade many different things:

Commodity futures, options, future spreads, option spreads, stocks.
Seasonals, COT, supply & demand for futures and options.
Many future markets.
Three different systems for stock trading.

The only thing that is common for all of my trades is that my minimum target to hold a position is a month, and I prefer holding my positions for approx. 3 months or longer.

My time does not allow for writing a journal for all I do in trading. Thus I would have to choose a segment of my activities. Which again is difficult as the various segments interact with each other, as I often use one segment as a hedge for another one.

I did not find a good solution yet. But I will think about it during my vacations in Italy, which will begin soon.

Are there any current journals you are interested in ? I would like to have a look at them and see if I could learn something.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Hi Myrrdin,
Thank you for your reply. I still think its doable even with the nature of your trades. In my journal I tend to post day trades most of the time, but will take on a spread on futures as well as other instruments. I have an experimental Forex spread ( not doing very well!), that I am holding for three weeks. What you can do, if I may suggest, is take a snap shot for the trade at the open and as you hedge, roll, etc.., you can "quote" that same post in a new one. And later post updates on where the position stand in profit/loss. A picture is worth a 1000 word, right? You can even do YT videos for detailed explanation. I know its lots of work, but very useful and worth the effort. Also, as you grow as a trader, it can be used as a verified public record ( posts cannot be edited after 24 hours) for trading jobs or investors. I have also received very valuable feedback on my journal from very good traders. Last but not least, it has helped me stay disciplined and follow a plan.
There are many very good journals in here, each have their own style. Here is the link to all:

https://futures.io/trading-journals/

There is also another in the Elite section.
Again, thank you and good luck with your trades. You seem to have a good plan. Let me know if you have additional questions.

K

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  #43 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
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myrrdin View Post
I am surprized you chose the June contract for the short hogs leg.

Actually, I wrote the spread wrong - I'm selling the Oct '19 LE and buying the Jun '20 HE.

Seasonalgo (which I use) represents it as LEV19-HEM20 in my portfolio, whereas I should have written it in my original post as HEM20-LEV19.

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  #44 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
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zxcv64 View Post
Actually, I wrote the spread wrong - I'm selling the Oct '19 LE and buying the Jun '20 HE.

Seasonalgo (which I use) represents it as LEV19-HEM20 in my portfolio, whereas I should have written it in my original post as HEM20-LEV19.

I am long Live Cattle (December and February contracts) via futures and short put options.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #45 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
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HEM20-LEV19


zxcv64 View Post
On Mon, 05-Aug, I sold the LEV19-HEM20 meat spread for around 27. It's a seasonal which has a very good track record, being profitable for the last 10 years, and I traded it successfully a year ago. The margin requirement is high though.


LEV19 fell sharply this morning, and this combined with the HEM20 rising last week, meant that I closed my trade just now for 17.3 (for roughly a 10 point profit).

I really like this seasonal.

I'm now considering taking a similar action to Myrrdins, which is to go long LE. (From a purely technical POV, the underlying is now down to the lows seen in June, hitting the lower bollinger band, and the RSI is around 20.)

Edit: how are traders dealing with the low options volume and extremely wide spreads in LE contracts? I'm looking at Oct, Dec, and Feb expiries, and there isn't even an Ask price quoted for most of the puts.


Last edited by zxcv64; August 12th, 2019 at 10:43 AM.
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  #46 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
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zxcv64 View Post
LEV19 fell sharply this morning, and this combined with the HEM20 rising last week, meant that I closed my trade just now for 17.3 (for roughly a 10 point profit).

I really like this seasonal.

I'm now considering taking a similar action to Myrrdins, which is to go long LE. (From a purely technical POV, the underlying is now down to the lows seen in June, hitting the lower bollinger band, and the RSI is around 20.)

Edit: how are traders dealing with the low options volume and extremely wide spreads in LE contracts? I'm looking at Oct, Dec, and Feb expiries, and there isn't even an Ask price quoted for most of the puts.

The limit down move had nothing to do with seasonals. The reason was that Tysonís slaughter plant in Finney County, Kansas, burnt down. It is the second largest such company in the US, processing approx. 5 % (I hope I remember this figure correctly) of US production. It looks like the shut down of the company will be longterm.

Spreads usually are no problem in the meat markets. Generally, if a commodity is limit up or down spreads are extremely wide. I would not buy or sell options at this time.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #47 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
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myrrdin View Post
The reason was that Tysonís slaughter plant in Finney County, Kansas, burnt down. It is the second largest such company in the US, processing approx. 5 %

Best regards, Myrrdin

Two questions pls :

1) How did you know about this fire? There is no mention in Hightower report and nor on the commodities news section of Barchart.com. It's mentioned in https://www.drovers.com/news though - do you follow sites like this?

2) With the plant closing down, would that not cause the LE prices to go UP, as the demand is the same as before, but the supply has been reduced?

Regards

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  #48 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received


zxcv64 View Post
Two questions pls :

1) How did you know about this fire? There is no mention in Hightower report and nor on the commodities news section of Barchart.com. It's mentioned in https://www.drovers.com/news though - do you follow sites like this?

2) With the plant closing down, would that not cause the LE prices to go UP, as the demand is the same as before, but the supply has been reduced?

Regards

I read about it yesterday in the weekly publication by Kevin Bost. He makes quite good forecasts on Cattle and Hogs cash prices. You have to pay for the journal. Details see his homepage.

The LE price refers to the animal, not to the meat. If less animals can be processed the price goes down.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #49 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
Thanks: 151 given, 59 received

Thanks Myrrdin for your continued expertise.

Hightower today mentioned the Tyson plant fire.

The LE futures fell again today making the LEG20 more and more attractive from a going-long perspective. I just need to decide on the structure.

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  #50 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received



zxcv64 View Post
Thanks Myrrdin for your continued expertise.

Hightower today mentioned the Tyson plant fire.

The LE futures fell again today making the LEG20 more and more attractive from a going-long perspective. I just need to decide on the structure.

I was interesting to note that Hightower die not (!) report about this fire in their Monday edition. Looks like they write it at the end of the week and publish it on Monday, without checking.

Yes, in my opinion the 2020 contracts for Live Cattle are overdone. I intend to stay in my short LCG put spreads for the time being.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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