Meats - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Meats
Updated: Views / Replies:3,232 / 53
Created: by myrrdin Attachments:1

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 1  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Meats

  #21 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
Thanks: 151 given, 59 received


myrrdin View Post
You bought the HEZ and sold the HEK ?

I do not like trading the May and July contracts in the hogs, as they are extremely thinly traded. Sometimes - for this reason - they show strange moves.

Best regards, Myrrdin

The Dec hogs have an open interest of around 53,000, so no problems there, but the May '19 are definitely on the thin side
with OI of just over 200. However, I had no problems getting filled, and in fact, I remember I got a good price. I like the
trade cos it's been profitable for the last 9 years out of 10. The 'Worst' and 'Best' loss/profit figures looked OK, and the
margin requirement was around $900/contract. In fact, the trade is near to my closing point - opened at -17, and will
close at -22, giving $2,000 profit per contract (currently around -21).

Reply With Quote
 
  #22 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received


zxcv64 View Post
The Dec hogs have an open interest of around 53,000, so no problems there, but the May '19 are definitely on the thin side
with OI of just over 200. However, I had no problems getting filled, and in fact, I remember I got a good price. I like the
trade cos it's been profitable for the last 9 years out of 10. The 'Worst' and 'Best' loss/profit figures looked OK, and the
margin requirement was around $900/contract. In fact, the trade is near to my closing point - opened at -17, and will
close at -22, giving $2,000 profit per contract (currently around -21).

I still assume that you sold the HEZ and bought the HEK. Bear spreads in the Hogs work well at this time of the year, if there is no desease etc.

Be careful: Today there came the news that in china a desease has broken out among hogs. This was the reason for prices moving upwards today. In the short run, this could hurt our bear spreads.

And: In case Mr. trump and Mexico sign a trade agreement, this would also be favourable for the hog prices and could hurt our spreads.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #23 (permalink)
San Jose, CA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 11 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 21 given, 8 received



myrrdin View Post
And: In case Mr. trump and Mexico sign a trade agreement, this would also be favorable for the hog prices and could hurt our spreads.

I'm looking to put on a long position in hogs and wanted to solicit your feedback. I have been looking at the COT report and saw that commercials have one of the largest long position in the history of COT reports at +37.3k contracts. Conversely, large specs. are at their 2nd lowest level at -26.5k contracts.

History shows, that similar COT positions have led to higher prices for hogs but given the current geo-political climate, is this time different? As you mention, given the hint of thaws in some of the adverse trade actions (see the outline EU trade deal announced late last month) could something change on the US-Mexico front that would re-open the market for US producers?

Granted, I didn't do my COT research based on % of OI, just aggregate levels and OI has jumped markedly as of late so that could color the analysis differently.

What do you think?

Ref: tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures/054642

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to fxfool for this post:
 
  #24 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received


fxfool View Post
I'm looking to put on a long position in hogs and wanted to solicit your feedback. I have been looking at the COT report and saw that commercials have one of the largest long position in the history of COT reports at +37.3k contracts. Conversely, large specs. are at their 2nd lowest level at -26.5k contracts.

History shows, that similar COT positions have led to higher prices for hogs but given the current geo-political climate, is this time different? As you mention, given the hint of thaws in some of the adverse trade actions (see the outline EU trade deal announced late last month) could something change on the US-Mexico front that would re-open the market for US producers?

Granted, I didn't do my COT research based on % of OI, just aggregate levels and OI has jumped markedly as of late so that could color the analysis differently.

What do you think?

Ref: tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures/054642

I currently hold a long position in LHG9. Reasons are COT data, the consideration, that Mexico will import again within the next few months (additionally this problem is probably already priced in), and the fact that I consider the price of the February future as cheap compared to the cash price I expect in February. I hold outright futures and the LHG P50.

Additionally I hold the LHG-LHV spread for seasonal reasons.

Whereas I bought the long LHG9 position recently I would not buy the LHG9 - LHV spread at current prices.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #25 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 68 since Jan 2018
Thanks: 151 given, 59 received


myrrdin View Post

Additionally I hold the LHG-LHV spread for seasonal reasons.

Whereas I bought the long LHG9 position recently I would not buy the LHG9 - LHV spread at current prices.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I wasn't in this, and I see it has moved up very nicely.

You may recall, I posted this "Last month, I opened the HEZ18-HEK19 after I saw it on seasonalgo. Opened at around -17, and currently in profit." on 03-Aug. I've closed this last week at -22. I really like this trade. It went very smoothly and as
per plan. If this spread goes back up to around -18 I may re-enter.

I'm also holding the LEV18-LEZ18 but this is not doing anything much right now.

Reply With Quote
 
  #26 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received


zxcv64 View Post
I wasn't in this, and I see it has moved up very nicely.

You may recall, I posted this "Last month, I opened the HEZ18-HEK19 after I saw it on seasonalgo. Opened at around -17, and currently in profit." on 03-Aug. I've closed this last week at -22. I really like this trade. It went very smoothly and as
per plan. If this spread goes back up to around -18 I may re-enter.

I'm also holding the LEV18-LEZ18 but this is not doing anything much right now.

I sold 50 % of my LHG - LHV recently, and will buy back this portion at lower prices, if given the possibility.

I also sold the LHG outright futures recently, and intend to buy them back at a lower price.

Hog prices might show strong movements to both directions, depending on the prgress of the China - US-talks.

Instead I sold the LCZ P106. I expect cattle price moving sidewards for the next couple of weeks. Buy back at 50 %.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #27 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received

This time of the year often is the time of the bear spreads in hogs. Currently I hold the LHG-LHZ.

Additionally I hold various short call options in the meats (see thread "Diversified Option Selling Portfolio") and a long position of LHM9, as I expect a large amount of hog imports by China in 2019 (severe desease problems).

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
 
  #28 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 73 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 21 given, 57 received

I am assessing the possibilities for lean hogs August contract LEQ19 (particularly shorting) as I consider that prices are relatively elevated currently. Any other consideration to consider?

Reply With Quote
 
  #29 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,525 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,880 given, 1,990 received

I am sure you have read about the severe problems regarding hogs in China.

In case there is a deal between the US and China, the price of HEQ might go through the roof. The HEQ contract was above 130 in 2014, when another desease plagued hogs in the US. There are clever people calculating a maximum price, but if there is panic you never know ... I do not intend to sell HE futures in the near future. The time will come when a deal between the US and China has been made.

I am long hogs via the HEV-LEV spread. In my opinion, live cattle are overpriced, and the effect of a deal will be much larger for HE than for LE. In case there is no deal or the deal is postponed too far out, the price of LE will come down further together with the price for HE. Thus, the risk of the spread to me seems to be smaller than for outrights.

I am also thinking about buying a small lot of HEG20 futures, which currently are about 82. I hope for a set-back to enter this trade.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #30 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 73 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 21 given, 57 received


Time to come back on this topic. OK there was 31.4MMT of lean hogs bought by China this week but the real question for me (I am short call option at 114 HEQ19 and it has already lost more than 70% of the value) is by when the price will go up and if...
My assumption, as we previously discussed. was that August expiry date will be fine with this level (and I was even ready to double it for 120 if needed be...). I am monitoring and ready to buy back my short call if things are not turning well for me.... Not sure that I will take another short call option for the end of the year though...
These articles are summarizing well (my previous views) the fact that timing is key and the level of price to be reached is also key even if one is bullish...which is still not my case....I am neutral at the current level around 90 - 95
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/chinas-love-pork-may-not-be-enough
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/swept-under-rug-5-factors-influencing-hog-prices


Last edited by Sagal; May 25th, 2019 at 08:32 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Sagal for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Meats




Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now
 

$1,000 in Amazon Gift Cards being given away right now from GFF Brokers

Right now
 

$250 Amazon Gift Cards with our "Thanks Contest" challenge!

Right now
 

Show us your trading desks and win over $5,000 in prizes w/Jigsaw Trading

August
 

Webinar: Suri Duddella (TBA)

Elite only
 

Webinar: Richard Bailey (TBA)

Elite only
     


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:17 PM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2019 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts