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Grains & Beans
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Created: by myrrdin Attachments:0

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Grains & Beans

  #41 (permalink)
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The hope is just that hope - that it stays in the center for a few weeks

having said that, as a trader

I am willing to and plan to adjust or hedge as required.. and manage as needed

If i dont know how or cannot do it or not willing to do it.. then i should NOT trade weather related seasonals
Myyrdin laid this out in his plan of what he is planning to do

Anyway SMCJB thanks for the comment.. as being realistic and honest.. sometimes can rub people the wrong way.. but best to have that and be ready than just HOPe and pray!!!

Now either I should not be in this trade or be willing to adjust as required (and keep reading agweb and farfutures and listen to Chip Flory daily to see when weather patterns could affect corn)
since i dont have all the weather data that large companies have

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  #42 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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jokertrader View Post
having said that, as a trader

I am willing to and plan to adjust or hedge as required.. and manage as needed

If i dont know how or cannot do it or not willing to do it.. then i should NOT trade weather related seasonals
Myyrdin laid this out in his plan of what he is planning to do

Anyway SMCJB thanks for the comment.. as being realistic and honest.. sometimes can rub people the wrong way.. but best to have that and be ready than just HOPe and pray!!!

Now either I should not be in this trade or be willing to adjust as required (and keep reading agweb and farfutures and listen to Chip Flory daily to see when weather patterns could affect corn)
since i dont have all the weather data that large companies have

The problem regarding weather forecasts is that when we get the information it is already priced in. In my opinion, the only way to trade successfully during a weather market is to set up trades that make money in a large variety of weather developments, as I showed in an earlier post regarding corn and soybeans.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #43 (permalink)
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Closed both my August Corn strangles with about 28% profit still holding the Sept IC with short strikes of 360 and 405


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  #44 (permalink)
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Aug strangles were 405/365 and 450/360


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  #45 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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myrrdin View Post
Weather markets are difficult to trade.

I currently hold a careful long position in soybeans:

SX AUG C10 - SX C11, which currently is available for a credit of approx. $ 200. My considerations:

Either the soybeans market stays weak, and the long options expiring on July, 21st, remain below $ 10. At this date, the weather forecasts for the critical time in August are already known. Thus it should be quite safe that the SX C11 Options remain below 11 and expire worthless.

Or the options expiring on July, 21st, close above $ 10. In this case the trade should be profitable at this time, and I can decide to liquidate the whole position or to sell or let expire the long calls only, and keep the short SX C11.

Or there is a strong move upwards soon. In this case the trade should be profitable, and I could liquidate all positions.

Any thoughts are highly welcome.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I still hold this position, whereas I was stopped out of the corresponding corn position.

Additionally I hold a long position in Minnepolis Wheat.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #46 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tomorrow, Friday, at 11 am (Chicago Time) the USDA Report on grains & beans (& cotton) will be released. This report is well known for causing large moves, especially in the row crops.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #47 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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From a seasonal point of view, KWZ-WZ looks promising. It should be strong until October.

The spread should get support from strong MW, and from the fact that it rarely goes below 0 at this time of the year. COT data us more bullish for KW than for W.

But remember to place a (mental) stop: In 2007 and 2015 the spread went down below -40.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #48 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
Additionally I hold a long position in Minnepolis Wheat.

Looks like that trade worked out well for you - nice job @myrrdin.

I know you look at COT data so I have to ask, are you worried at all about the record spec longs in KE? The wasde report already poured some cold water on the rally and unless there's a deterioration in the crop or some kind of supply disruption those record longs will be looking for an exit, no?

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  #49 (permalink)
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Bladesmith View Post
Looks like that trade worked out well for you - nice job @myrrdin.

I know you look at COT data so I have to ask, are you worried at all about the record spec longs in KE? The wasde report already poured some cold water on the rally and unless there's a deterioration in the crop or some kind of supply disruption those record longs will be looking for an exit, no?

The MW trade was one of my best in 2017. I liquidated recently, and do not intend to re-enter. The future might move up to 9 $, but could move downwards as well. Options are very thin, and too expensive to buy, and too risky to sell.

The only trade I hold in the grains is a short position of WN8-WH9, sold at -18 some days ago. I intend to risk it to 0, as it has not been trading above for many years. In my opinion, the spread should move down to -50 or below before the expiry of the WN8.

Regarding the KW-W-spread, longs might be looking for an exit in W as well as in KW. But in some cases MW might be replaced by KW, and that could help the spread. I do not think there is a large potential for profit, and intend to exit between 12 and 15. Stop is quite close below the April low.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #50 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Today at 11 am (Chicago Time) / 18.00 (Central European Time) USDA will publish its August report. The report for this month is one that an move prices drastically, as it will show rather final figures for corn. Surprises are possible.

Even if figures are bearish prices could turn around sharply during the next couple of days. I do not hold any short options in grains or beans.

I suggest to keep positions moderate going into this report.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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