Grains & Beans - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Grains & Beans
Updated: Views / Replies:2,793 / 53
Created: by myrrdin Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Grains & Beans

  #31 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,026 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,414 given, 1,180 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


jokertrader View Post
since stocks/usage is pretty high the spread has narrowed and could even go negative..i..e July less than Nov.
if there is a weather concern.. this might rise
am i reading this right?

trying to make sense of the past Hightower reports

https://hightowerreport.com/2014/04/jul-nov-soybean-spread-out-of-whack-with-the-fundamentals/

and

https://hightowerreport.com/2013/04/upside-potential-for-julynovember-soybean-spread/

Yes, this is the reason why I currently do not trade the SN-SX.

Corn is planted much earlier than beans. If it is not possible to plant corn in some regions, farmers might switch to beans. If weather is perfect for planting corn everywhere, farmers might switch from beans to corn. Similar relations exist between beans and spring wheat and cotton.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #32 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,026 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,414 given, 1,180 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Today at 11.00 am (Chicago Time) or 18.00 (Central European Time) the monthly USDA report regarding grains, beans, and cotton will be published.

I do not expect it to be a longterm market mover, as everybody is looking at the weather forecasts.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #33 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,026 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,414 given, 1,180 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Weather markets are difficult to trade.

I currently hold a careful long position in soybeans:

SX AUG C10 - SX C11, which currently is available for a credit of approx. $ 200. My considerations:

Either the soybeans market stays weak, and the long options expiring on July, 21st, remain below $ 10. At this date, the weather forecasts for the critical time in August are already known. Thus it should be quite safe that the SX C11 Options remain below 11 and expire worthless.

Or the options expiring on July, 21st, close above $ 10. In this case the trade should be profitable at this time, and I can decide to liquidate the whole position or to sell or let expire the long calls only, and keep the short SX C11.

Or there is a strong move upwards soon. In this case the trade should be profitable, and I could liquidate all positions.

Any thoughts are highly welcome.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #34 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,026 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,414 given, 1,180 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

In corn I hold a similar position as for beans (see earlier post):

Long CZ , short 2 * CZ SEP C4.50 .

This position is more agressive than the soybeans position.

My considerations are similar than for the soybeans trade.

As my long position is an outright future I have a stop below the March low. In case I am stopped out it is rather safe to assume that the short calls will expire worthless.

I will take profit and liquidate the total Position on a close above 4.50 (in this case 50 % of the options would be uncovered and in the money) or on a clear reversal.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #35 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,026 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,414 given, 1,180 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Interesting post from Twitter:

" Arlan Suderman‏*@ArlanFF101 34 Min.
Vor 34 Minuten


1987 and 1994 were the two years that we know of in warm ENSO cycle like this year. '87 was warm and wet, while '94 cool/wet. Both big ylds. "


Fits to the old saying "Rain makes Grain" .


Best regards, Myrrdin


Last edited by myrrdin; June 8th, 2017 at 08:15 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #36 (permalink)
Elite Member
rutherford NJ
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Qtrader
Broker/Data: Amp and Optimus and CQG
Favorite Futures: Mainly NG Some GC, ZS,CL
 
Posts: 388 since May 2013
Thanks: 308 given, 143 received

For the corn are u expecting to leave the Sep calls and close out the long future on a summer rally ? Or if we get a rally will u close the whole position out? I have Short Aug strangles 405/365 and sept wide strangles 450/360


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jokertrader for this post:
 
  #37 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, Vantage, Trade Navigator
Broker/Data: DeCarley, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,026 since Nov 2014
Thanks: 1,414 given, 1,180 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


jokertrader View Post
For the corn are u expecting to leave the Sep calls and close out the long future on a summer rally ? Or if we get a rally will u close the whole position out? I have Short Aug strangles 405/365 and sept wide strangles 450/360


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

It is hard to say if and how far and how fast corn price will move upwards. It all depends on weather.

Critical pollination period for the US is in July.

There are several realistic possibilities:

1. Weather forecasts get worse. In this case, corn price will move upwards, and might go beyond 450. In this case I will liquidate the whole position, as the trade should be profitable at this time, and half of the short calls are uncovered.

2. There is more weather premium built into the corn price, but the weather threat does not materialize. Corn price might move up to somewhere between 4.20 and 4.50. At some point it will be clear that pollination is not in danger, and corn price reverses sharply. In this case I might sell the futures and keep the short calls.

3. If there is more rain in the forecasts prices migh move back soon. In this case I intend to sell the futures and hold the short calls.

4. Something unexpected happens. This is why I use a conservative strategy, and keep lot size at a moderate level. In this case there is a high probability that I liquidate the whole trade.

I consider holding short corn calls currently a risky strategy - you are dependent on the weather. In many years it works out fine, but there are exceptions. The CQ C405 is very close to the money. The only naked calls I currently consider are WU calls. But I should add that I intend to sell them against a long position of MWN outright futures.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
 
  #38 (permalink)
Elite Member
rutherford NJ
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Qtrader
Broker/Data: Amp and Optimus and CQG
Favorite Futures: Mainly NG Some GC, ZS,CL
 
Posts: 388 since May 2013
Thanks: 308 given, 143 received

Yes good point i am going to cover soon

i hope to hold not too long for the 405 calls.. I hope i can survive 2 weeks. then take it off.. otherwise i might have to go long futures if it starts showing movement or sell more put spreads etc

thanks for your thoughts in-depth as always

Reply With Quote
 
  #39 (permalink)
Elite Member
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TWS
Favorite Futures: Options on futures
 
Posts: 106 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 211 given, 104 received

Corn

Here is an article explaining that traders currently move to Corn instead of Soybean
Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

CoT data and seasonals supports Corn prices now.
Chart structure suggest that is may break out of the trading range to the upper side.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to manuel999 for this post:
 
  #40 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 2,025 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,678 given, 3,131 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



jokertrader View Post
i hope to hold not too long for the 405 calls.. I hope i can survive 2 weeks. then take it off.. otherwise i might have to go long futures if it starts showing movement or sell more put spreads etc

In trading I find that 'hope' isn't normally a good thing

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Grains & Beans

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

Al Brooks: TBA

Elite only

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Oct 19

RandBots: TBA

Oct 24
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Is there a hill-o-beans chance this day trading system could work? risingfire Emini Index Futures Trading 27 March 2nd, 2017 08:36 AM
Reminiscences of a Bean Trader or Why These Ain't Yo Daddy's Beans No-Mo tigertrader Commodities Futures Trading 25 January 16th, 2015 02:46 AM
Grains Trading sysot1t Commodities Futures Trading 46 November 24th, 2014 09:47 AM
Day Trading Beans using Price Action and Wyckoff YertleTurtle Elite Trading Journals 46 September 25th, 2014 08:21 PM
Grains / Softs / Options Arpeggi The Elite Circle 1 March 3rd, 2011 09:08 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:00 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-09-22 in 0.08 seconds with 18 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.156.69.204