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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!
Started:October 15th, 2016 (12:58 PM) by josephBus1 Views / Replies:1,489 / 61
Last Reply:December 6th, 2016 (09:54 AM) Attachments:12

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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

Old October 15th, 2016, 12:58 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

Why is Nat Gas going opposite MRCI's data

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Old October 15th, 2016, 12:58 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Old October 16th, 2016, 09:55 PM   #3 (permalink)
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josephBus1 View Post
Why is Nat Gas going opposite MRCI's data


What is MRCI?

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Old October 17th, 2016, 05:16 AM   #4 (permalink)
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What is MRCI?

I think he may be referring to this site.

Vive memor leti fugit hora - Live mindful of death, the hour flies
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Old October 18th, 2016, 02:30 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
MRCI is a great tool for seasonal research, seasonal spreads and more. used by many professionals and even the exchanges. www.mrci.com
We actually wrote a good article about seasonality in futures.

As far as Natural Gas, here is my opinion for what its worth....
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Old October 22nd, 2016, 05:34 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I've never been a real fan of just using seasonals alone. Also, don't like the idea of basing a decision on only 15 occurrences...not a statistically significant number.

Moore Research has been around a long time. What I'd like to see is how a seasonal trade has played out over the last forty years, because they DO have the data. Fifteen years just seems like curve fitting to me.

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Old October 22nd, 2016, 09:50 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Friday's Huge Decline In Natural Gas

Well, I was long NG to start the day on Friday, thinking it would recover after the report. Needless to say I got out quick prior to the official open of the market and so glad I did. Regret the fact that I noticed the short opp the week before and got stopped out repeatedly, then just left it alone. I made the mistake of thinking it had sold enough and tried to turn around and catch the rally back, but after the report on Thursday, there was no rally, and every up was a chance to sell.

Did the same thing with SI a few weeks ago. I was long at the top, and managed to get out on that last huge run up spike prior to the sell off 9/30/16. Working on re-wiring my system so that I can sell those run ups but it's hard to do. When I see the market moving like that, I want to be in it, want to be long, but all it is are market makers making a ramp to sell from. ES/YI/NQ did the same thing the night before BREXIT, Rallied right up to the release. I did catch that one though and loaded up on UVXY as the price was drove down into the ground. Again the forsight to sell some futures contracts there would have ended in a pile of $$$. Maybe one day I'll get it.

Here is an article i found on NG from last week.

US natural gas futures fall to two weeks low | Business Recorder

Keep the fact that Coal is so cheap right now, NG may not see a huge bid in the near term. If Clinton gets in and further drives the spike in the heart of Coal, then NG could head to $4.

Famed energy trader Mark Fisher says buy any dip in crude oil and natural gas

Natural Gas News - Investing.com

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Old October 23rd, 2016, 04:13 AM   #8 (permalink)
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SACfutures View Post
I've never been a real fan of just using seasonals alone. Also, don't like the idea of basing a decision on only 15 occurrences...not a statistically significant number.

Moore Research has been around a long time. What I'd like to see is how a seasonal trade has played out over the last forty years, because they DO have the data. Fifteen years just seems like curve fitting to me.

In my opinion it does not make sense to consider too many years back.

Fundamentals for most of the commodities change over time. An example: 50 years ago there were not many soybeans grown in South America. Thus, the seasonal charts going back too far do not fully include the growing cycle in these countries.

There is a danger of curve fitting. Thus, I consider it to be important not only to have a look at the seasonal chart, but to check the charts for each single year. Only seasonal charts, which are confirmed by most of the individual years look promising. (Even more, if you are able to find out, why in some years this seasonal trade failed.)

Furhermore, trades that follow the seasonal chart for some weeks or months are more promising than others.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old October 23rd, 2016, 04:39 PM   #9 (permalink)
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...Keep the fact that Coal is so cheap right now, NG may not see a huge bid in the near term. If Clinton gets in and further drives the spike in the heart of Coal, then NG could head to $4.

It's gonna' be a cold winter.

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Old October 24th, 2016, 06:22 PM   #10 (permalink)
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It's gonna' be a cold winter.

Well November looks like its going to be very warm, one of the reasons NG-X6 is puking and why X/Z spread has widened approx 25c, to almost a 50c discount in the last week.

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