NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 44 posts (48 thanks)
    2. looks_two jokertrader with 32 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 ron99 with 17 posts (26 thanks)
    4. looks_4 HoopyTrading with 6 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 1.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two ron99 with 1.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 1.1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 shzhning with 1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 23,789 views
    2. thumb_up 84 thanks given
    3. group 18 followers
    1. forum 122 posts
    2. attach_file 30 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

  #21 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

Today was options expiration, so I suspect it was something to do with that.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
38 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
27 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
18 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
  #22 (permalink)
KBal
Evans, GA
 
Posts: 31 since Sep 2016
Thanks Given: 14
Thanks Received: 35

With the November Contract Expiring Tomorrow and the December Contract Becoming Front, I believe that what was witnessed today in the markets, were MM's who were short from the 3.36 Top earlier this very month a mere 2 weeks ago finally cover in the last 5 mins of trade.

My personal experience today. I was looking for a bounce off of the 200 DMA on the daily which I had planned to be around the 2.71 area, even though it had pierced the avg, I thought it would return. Well, my 2 contracts turned into 6 and shortly after noon I was all but pulling my hair out wondering when the selling would abate. Possibly never I thought, there was no bottom as I watched my account balance plummet. Down to 2.627 where I added my last contract long at 2.647 most were in the 2.71 2.68 range for a 2.6835 avg. I thought we would probably see some short covering into the close and a bid overnight, but I underestimated how much short covering there would be. When trading neared the last 10 mins NG was bid up. No longer was I down $3500, I was down only $1500, then $1000, then $800 then in last 5 mins It just rocketed up to my entry, where I just closed out as I was sure it would be sold against. What I didn't take into account was just how short everyone was, and tomorrow being the expiry, everyone had to cover. Had I maintained my position I would have been up near $4K at 2.74 but hindsight is 20/20 and honestly I was glad to get out without a large loss.

Barring an outright negative report tomorrow I am bullish NG due to the covering today I don't believe the Dec Contract will be resold. I look for any weakness after tomorrows report to be bought up and the shorts will target January Contract after relief rally.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #23 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360


If you look at last 2 reports.. there was reversal and then movement after 12:30 so lets see - look at Oct 13th

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #24 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

Wonder if the order flow is pretty clear using bookmap? the last 2 days.. seem that if u can see certain levels hold.. then u can predict.. like the 0.50 cents.. look at today around 3.050.. and the round numbers..

seemed easier to see than some of the other instruments or more orderly

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #25 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192


KBal View Post
My personal experience today. I was looking for a bounce off of the 200 DMA on the daily which I had planned to be around the 2.71 area, even though it had pierced the avg, I thought it would return. Well, my 2 contracts turned into 6 and shortly after noon I was all but pulling my hair out wondering when the selling would abate. Possibly never I thought, there was no bottom as I watched my account balance plummet. Down to 2.627 where I added my last contract long at 2.647 most were in the 2.71 2.68 range for a 2.6835 avg. I thought we would probably see some short covering into the close and a bid overnight, but I underestimated how much short covering there would be. When trading neared the last 10 mins NG was bid up. No longer was I down $3500, I was down only $1500, then $1000, then $800 then in last 5 mins It just rocketed up to my entry, where I just closed out as I was sure it would be sold against. What I didn't take into account was just how short everyone was, and tomorrow being the expiry, everyone had to cover. Had I maintained my position I would have been up near $4K at 2.74 but hindsight is 20/20 and honestly I was glad to get out without a large loss.

Glad that things worked out for you in the end. Maybe nothing to do with me, but your trading style seems to be a little risky. Adding to losers, multiple times, may have worked out for you in this example, but that's often exactly the type of behavior that will blow an account out.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #26 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014

It's gonna' be a cold winter.

Reply With Quote
  #27 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192


HoopyTrading View Post
It's gonna' be a cold winter.

NOAA 3 Month. Not as hot as the one month (several posts above), but still warm!



For me, that hopefully means shorts all year round this year.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #28 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014

;-) Cold I tell you. Brr.

Reply With Quote
  #29 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

Just as in interesting aside.. Gas prices across America for January, which is pretty much the highest on the board...

Northeast
Boston $8
NYC $8.20
NY Upstate $6.40
NJ $5.40
Marcellious $2.20

Central
Chicago $3.55

South
Henry Hub $3.26
Houston $3.20

West
Alberta $2.25
Rockies $3.25
SanFran $3.60
SoCal $3.50

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #30 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014


Cold I tell you! I can feel it in my knees and other joints! Brrrr!

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on April 26, 2018


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts