NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 44 posts (48 thanks)
    2. looks_two jokertrader with 32 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 ron99 with 17 posts (26 thanks)
    4. looks_4 HoopyTrading with 6 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 1.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two ron99 with 1.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 1.1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 shzhning with 1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 23,789 views
    2. thumb_up 84 thanks given
    3. group 18 followers
    1. forum 122 posts
    2. attach_file 30 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

  #11 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

Wonder what's a good buy level and is this correction only weather related or something to do with Nov expiry??


Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
18 thanks
  #12 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
Thanks Received: 2,651


jokertrader View Post
Wonder what's a good buy level and is this correction only weather related or something to do with Nov expiry??


Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app

The seasonal chart until the end of the year for the most recent 10 years clearly shows downwards.

Looking at the individual charts (I checked the February contract) for each year, there are only few years, when you would have made money until end of the year entering the long side end of October or in November. And only, if you would have gotten the entry date perfectly.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #13 (permalink)
KBal
Evans, GA
 
Posts: 31 since Sep 2016
Thanks Given: 14
Thanks Received: 35



jokertrader View Post
Wonder what's a good buy level and is this correction only weather related or something to do with Nov expiry??


Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app

I have been trading NG Nov contract Intraday for small scalps both long and short, and it looks like the 200 DMA is pulling it to 2.74 It is just 1 days trade off of it now. Wouldn't be surprised if it more than pierces it possibly down to 2.70 Not sure on the December Contract, since it seems Dec is priced well above the Nov. The NG Nov contract is down more than 10% in past 3 trading sessions.

Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)
KBal
Evans, GA
 
Posts: 31 since Sep 2016
Thanks Given: 14
Thanks Received: 35


jokertrader View Post
Wonder what's a good buy level and is this correction only weather related or something to do with Nov expiry??


Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app

Got your message and I guess I accidentally replied with no message. and now I have to wait 60 mins or reply here, so hey, we all make mistakes. Anyway I can sympathize with your situation, as I made the same mistake on SI a few weeks back. Luckily I was able to get out of SI after holding it overnight and being down a considerable lot.

With NG, there doesn't look like any reason to rally just yet, every attempt at a rally has just been met with selling. I don't know how big your account is, or how many contracts you trade, but if I were trapped in, I would try to leverage out by buying into one of those down spikes. It will get bid up to a Moving Avg then sell off, just map out your levels and don't get greedy. I think it might bounce on 200 DMA, but there are some aggressive sellers 10% or so in 3 days, so I don't think anything is safe.

I was greedy when I first started trading NG and was up near 1K overnight, thought I knew this shit then 6:30 AM comes and it's gone, then 7:30 it's mostly back but I didn't take it, thought it would trade higher, then, boom stopped out for $30 as it sells off 5.4% Just glad I wasn't long for that ride down. Then it did it again the next day, but by then I've learned not to trust any rally. Don't see any chance for it to go higher until after Thursdays report on storage, but that could send it even lower if there is another build and warm weather still in the forecast.

Sometimes It's just best to cut losses and move on. Walk away and start fresh.

Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

Thank very much for that quick answer wil analyze levels and respond back


Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

Took another small long scalp not really getting a bid here


Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)
 ClutchAce 
Cookeville, TN
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, IB, Python
Trading: NQ, DAX, TOPIX
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Hours
Posts: 71 since Oct 2011
Thanks Given: 18
Thanks Received: 21

It's down what, 22% since the start of last week? NG futures are trading like a penny stock.

Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

There's a reason NG options have one of the highest implied volatilities in the commodities markets

Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192


SMCJB View Post
There's a reason NG options have one of the highest implied volatilities in the commodities markets

As the 10c rally in the closing range highlights!

Reply With Quote
  #20 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360


Any thoughts on what this means??


Sent from my iPhone using NexusFi mobile app

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on April 26, 2018


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts