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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!
Started:October 15th, 2016 (12:58 PM) by josephBus1 Views / Replies:1,478 / 61
Last Reply:December 6th, 2016 (09:54 AM) Attachments:12

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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

Old November 14th, 2016, 07:11 AM   #51 (permalink)
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What could be a top I am thinking around 2.8


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Old November 14th, 2016, 08:10 AM   #52 (permalink)
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jokertrader View Post
What could be a top I am thinking around 2.8


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A severe cold snap in the weather forecast, and NG moves far beyond 3 ...

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Old November 15th, 2016, 11:13 AM   #53 (permalink)
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The thing that is surprising me, is that as Z rallies, the Z/F spread is widening significantly. I would expect the entire/first 4 months to rally, with H/J widening, but H/J only widened 1.4c on a 13c Z move yesterday.


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Old November 16th, 2016, 12:50 AM   #54 (permalink)
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One can get pretty wide in /NG now, I put the below on a couple days ago and it's doing good so far. I actually only have about 1k profit, they misquote the prices at night badly with /NG. I am long 2 futures with 3 atm calls against them and short two puts and one call. My BE is $2.43 and $3.60 though a sudden move to either would sink me.

Does anyone know how to chart the implied volatility of futures like /NG? I use the indexes GVX & OIV for /GC and /CL but do not have a solution for /NG and other less traded futures.

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Does anyone have any hedged option configurations like I've shown above they use? The above is kind of a mish mash but I've found a hedged strangle pretty decent. I make it by selling three 16 delta put and calls and then buying a call and put closer to atm so where I still get decent credit. This expands the range of a normal 16 delta strangle a bit, perhaps good in low IV times. It's basically two ratio credit spreads.

One can also get wide in /ZB now, I'm going to sell a strangle on it tomorrow.

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Old November 17th, 2016, 05:56 PM   #55 (permalink)
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Another above average build (highest in last 10 years) again today, meaning gas in storage sets yet another all time high.

Storage Futures for next week on ICE are 1/3 implying yet another build. While a build of 2 wouldn't be out of the normal for 3rd week in November, it will mean that gas in storage will set yet another all time high next week as well.

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Old November 21st, 2016, 08:34 PM   #56 (permalink)
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And yet we continue to grind higher cold weather??? Hmmm wonder if same thing will happen with Jan contract and as we rollover we will head down again?


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Old November 21st, 2016, 08:34 PM   #57 (permalink)
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Maybe I should just average into option spreads


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Old December 1st, 2016, 01:45 PM   #58 (permalink)
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What causes a roller coaster like this in a futures market, aside from deep pockets speculating, I don't know
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Old December 1st, 2016, 01:59 PM   #59 (permalink)
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What causes a roller coaster like this in a futures market, aside from deep pockets speculating, I don't know[/IMG]


We never know until after the fact, even when it seems so, so obvious. Sure seems like CL but we were fooled by ES movement: Brexit, Election.


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Old December 1st, 2016, 10:46 PM   #60 (permalink)
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This weeks NG Forward Curve Change.

Calendar year 2018 has barely broken through $3 and there is massive (I assume producer) selling at that level.
While the front has rallied like crazy, Calendar year 2018 has barely moved.

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From a different perspective, how spreads have moved, aka "its all about March/April"

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