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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!
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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

  #51 (permalink)
Elite Member
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What could be a top I am thinking around 2.8


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  #52 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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jokertrader View Post
What could be a top I am thinking around 2.8


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A severe cold snap in the weather forecast, and NG moves far beyond 3 ...

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #53 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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The thing that is surprising me, is that as Z rallies, the Z/F spread is widening significantly. I would expect the entire/first 4 months to rally, with H/J widening, but H/J only widened 1.4c on a 13c Z move yesterday.


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  #54 (permalink)
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One can get pretty wide in /NG now, I put the below on a couple days ago and it's doing good so far. I actually only have about 1k profit, they misquote the prices at night badly with /NG. I am long 2 futures with 3 atm calls against them and short two puts and one call. My BE is $2.43 and $3.60 though a sudden move to either would sink me.

Does anyone know how to chart the implied volatility of futures like /NG? I use the indexes GVX & OIV for /GC and /CL but do not have a solution for /NG and other less traded futures.

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Does anyone have any hedged option configurations like I've shown above they use? The above is kind of a mish mash but I've found a hedged strangle pretty decent. I make it by selling three 16 delta put and calls and then buying a call and put closer to atm so where I still get decent credit. This expands the range of a normal 16 delta strangle a bit, perhaps good in low IV times. It's basically two ratio credit spreads.

One can also get wide in /ZB now, I'm going to sell a strangle on it tomorrow.

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  #55 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Edge on FIO
Another above average build (highest in last 10 years) again today, meaning gas in storage sets yet another all time high.

Storage Futures for next week on ICE are 1/3 implying yet another build. While a build of 2 wouldn't be out of the normal for 3rd week in November, it will mean that gas in storage will set yet another all time high next week as well.

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  #56 (permalink)
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And yet we continue to grind higher cold weather??? Hmmm wonder if same thing will happen with Jan contract and as we rollover we will head down again?


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  #57 (permalink)
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Maybe I should just average into option spreads


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  #58 (permalink)
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What causes a roller coaster like this in a futures market, aside from deep pockets speculating, I don't know
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  #59 (permalink)
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ClutchAce View Post
What causes a roller coaster like this in a futures market, aside from deep pockets speculating, I don't know[/IMG]


We never know until after the fact, even when it seems so, so obvious. Sure seems like CL but we were fooled by ES movement: Brexit, Election.


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  #60 (permalink)
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This weeks NG Forward Curve Change.

Calendar year 2018 has barely broken through $3 and there is massive (I assume producer) selling at that level.
While the front has rallied like crazy, Calendar year 2018 has barely moved.

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From a different perspective, how spreads have moved, aka "its all about March/April"

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