The seasonal chart until the end of the year for the most recent 10 years clearly shows downwards.
Looking at the individual charts (I checked the February contract) for each year, there are only few years, when you would have made money until end of the year entering the long side end of October or in November. And only, if you would have gotten the entry date perfectly.
Best regards, Myrrdin
The following user says Thank You to myrrdin for this post:
I have been trading NG Nov contract Intraday for small scalps both long and short, and it looks like the 200 DMA is pulling it to 2.74 It is just 1 days trade off of it now. Wouldn't be surprised if it more than pierces it possibly down to 2.70 Not sure on the December Contract, since it seems Dec is priced well above the Nov. The NG Nov contract is down more than 10% in past 3 trading sessions.
Got your message and I guess I accidentally replied with no message. and now I have to wait 60 mins or reply here, so hey, we all make mistakes. Anyway I can sympathize with your situation, as I made the same mistake on SI a few weeks back. Luckily I was able to get out of SI after holding it overnight and being down a considerable lot.
With NG, there doesn't look like any reason to rally just yet, every attempt at a rally has just been met with selling. I don't know how big your account is, or how many contracts you trade, but if I were trapped in, I would try to leverage out by buying into one of those down spikes. It will get bid up to a Moving Avg then sell off, just map out your levels and don't get greedy. I think it might bounce on 200 DMA, but there are some aggressive sellers 10% or so in 3 days, so I don't think anything is safe.
I was greedy when I first started trading NG and was up near 1K overnight, thought I knew this shit then 6:30 AM comes and it's gone, then 7:30 it's mostly back but I didn't take it, thought it would trade higher, then, boom stopped out for $30 as it sells off 5.4% Just glad I wasn't long for that ride down. Then it did it again the next day, but by then I've learned not to trust any rally. Don't see any chance for it to go higher until after Thursdays report on storage, but that could send it even lower if there is another build and warm weather still in the forecast.
Sometimes It's just best to cut losses and move on. Walk away and start fresh.