I am refining my list of seasonals. I will post it when I am done. Have about 100 trades per year right now. 32 of them are spreads but I probably will be adding more of them while doing research at Seasonalgo.com.
I am wondering how this list will perform in the future. My current list has 81.6% winners the past 10 years (a trade is considered a loser if it has a EOD draw down of >$4,000 even if it ends profitable). I am wondering how much that % winners will drop in the future.
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I currently hold the following positions in relation to seasonal trading:
NGH7-NGF7: see below,
HOZ-RBZ: According to MRCI (they use the January contract), this spread was successful in 13 of the most recent 15 years, if entered early August and exited late October. Only once there is a loss of more than $4,000, Ron's exit criterium. Looks like an interesting time to enter this spread with a rather close stop below the January or April low.
LHG7-LHZ6, LHV6-LHZ6: The latter I will enter at the open today, according to MRCI it is successful in 14 of the most recent 15 years. The first one was recommended by MRCI for many years, but failed during the hog desease some years ago.
The December contract looks much weaker than the other contracts. I am bearish for the December contract this year for fundamental reasons. There is a high probability that hog supplies will exceed expectations this fall. And low cattle prices might draw some supply to this market.
Best regards, Myrrdin
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MRCI also offers a consulting service. They select individual trades from their data base, and explain how to trade them in the actual year. You have to pay for this information. I do not use this service.
I've been a subscriber to MRCI for many, many years and find their info very valuable.
However, seasonal trades are never a guarantee for profits. Although a trade may have been profitable 14 of the last 15 years, this could be the year it's a loser. Also, you have to really look at the yearly stats on each trade rec they give.
For example, they may show an average profit of $1200 on a trade but the drawdown may have been $3500. Most traders I know would not hold on to a trade like that and thus, would never have profited.
As I said I do like the service but you have to use it in conjunction with your other traders tools. I use their recommendations as a starting point and then apply my own analysis to determine if I'm going to take the trade or not.
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