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Softs (Fundamentals)
Started:September 9th, 2016 (12:37 PM) by myrrdin Views / Replies:354 / 10
Last Reply:December 8th, 2016 (02:15 PM) Attachments:0

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Softs (Fundamentals)

Old September 9th, 2016, 12:37 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Softs (Fundamentals)

Monthly report on fundamentals of softs:

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/ICE_Monthly_Softs_Fast_Facts.pdf?sp...pReportId=ODYwNjczNzg2S0

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old September 9th, 2016, 12:37 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Old September 30th, 2016, 09:51 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Fundamentals will not help you make money in the markets, because you always know about them too late in the decision making process and you'll always have a hedge fund trader who has the numbers before you.

Macro data is already priced in the market at virtually any time...

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Old September 30th, 2016, 10:46 AM   #4 (permalink)
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wintergasp View Post
Fundamentals will not help you make money in the markets, because you always know about them too late in the decision making process and you'll always have a hedge fund trader who has the numbers before you.

Macro data is already priced in the market at virtually any time...

There are many different ways to trade successfully ...

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Old September 30th, 2016, 11:57 AM   #5 (permalink)
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wintergasp View Post
Fundamentals will not help you make money in the markets, because you always know about them too late in the decision making process and you'll always have a hedge fund trader who has the numbers before you.

Macro data is already priced in the market at virtually any time...


Buy the Rumor - Sell the News

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Old September 30th, 2016, 02:15 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Buy the Rumor - Sell the News

Yep

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Old October 1st, 2016, 09:47 PM   #7 (permalink)
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wintergasp View Post
Fundamentals will not help you make money in the markets, because you always know about them too late in the decision making process and you'll always have a hedge fund trader who has the numbers before you.

Macro data is already priced in the market at virtually any time...

While I agree that sophisticated traders have better access to fundamental data and analytics, which obviously gives them and advantage, I wouldn't agree that means you can't make money having a fundamental bias and that you should ignore fundamentals.

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 06:17 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Studying fundamentals and especially news flow can be extremely helpful in identifying sentiment bias, which, to a swing trader is invaluable information. When the news stories and embedded quotes from market professionals all skew bullish, you can assume that most positions probably also lean bullish and are therefore looking for an exit. This is fodder to a contrarian swing trader. Good news sources also help identify what a lot of major market participants will be paying attention to, or anticipating, in coming trading sessions, which may also help the astute observer uncover exploitable vulnerabilities in the "herd's" group-think behavior. Again, invaluable information to the longer time-frame trader.

Those who ignore fundamentals because they believe it's already priced in do so at their own peril. Willful ignorance is generally not something I would recommend.

Thanks for the link, @myrrdin. Allow me to reciprocate. Another excellent fundamental news source for the trading of soft commodities is the website: agrimoney.com, which is continually updated with timely and relevant articles. I highly recommend it for anyone who trades the softs - even those who feel everything is already priced in.


Last edited by Bladesmith; October 3rd, 2016 at 06:31 AM.
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Old October 4th, 2016, 07:01 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I think saying macro data is already priced in ignores the simple fact that a producer or speculator still has to make that macro decision before it's actually priced in. The democratization of data is allowing 'cheaper' analysis for those that want it from weather satellite data to shipping volume data.

Can you get to your final location without a GPS? Sure. You can read the signs right in front of you. But it sure helps to know what the road map is going to be (shifts in fundamentals) before it happens in price.

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Old October 11th, 2016, 02:08 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Monthly report on fundamentals of softs:

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/ICE_Monthly_Softs_Fast_Facts.pdf?sp...pReportId=ODgwODUwMjM5S0

Best regards, Myrrdin

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