Fundamentals will not help you make money in the markets, because you always know about them too late in the decision making process and you'll always have a hedge fund trader who has the numbers before you.
Macro data is already priced in the market at virtually any time...
The following user says Thank You to wintergasp for this post:
While I agree that sophisticated traders have better access to fundamental data and analytics, which obviously gives them and advantage, I wouldn't agree that means you can't make money having a fundamental bias and that you should ignore fundamentals.
The following 4 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
Studying fundamentals and especially news flow can be extremely helpful in identifying sentiment bias, which, to a swing trader is invaluable information. When the news stories and embedded quotes from market professionals all skew bullish, you can assume that most positions probably also lean bullish and are therefore looking for an exit. This is fodder to a contrarian swing trader. Good news sources also help identify what a lot of major market participants will be paying attention to, or anticipating, in coming trading sessions, which may also help the astute observer uncover exploitable vulnerabilities in the "herd's" group-think behavior. Again, invaluable information to the longer time-frame trader.
Those who ignore fundamentals because they believe it's already priced in do so at their own peril. Willful ignorance is generally not something I would recommend.
Thanks for the link, @myrrdin. Allow me to reciprocate. Another excellent fundamental news source for the trading of soft commodities is the website: agrimoney.com, which is continually updated with timely and relevant articles. I highly recommend it for anyone who trades the softs - even those who feel everything is already priced in.
Last edited by Bladesmith; October 3rd, 2016 at 05:31 AM.
The following 6 users say Thank You to Bladesmith for this post:
I think saying macro data is already priced in ignores the simple fact that a producer or speculator still has to make that macro decision before it's actually priced in. The democratization of data is allowing 'cheaper' analysis for those that want it from weather satellite data to shipping volume data.
Can you get to your final location without a GPS? Sure. You can read the signs right in front of you. But it sure helps to know what the road map is going to be (shifts in fundamentals) before it happens in price.