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Softs (Fundamentals)
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Created: by myrrdin Attachments:10

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Softs (Fundamentals)

  #71 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
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Sagal View Post
One step closer to 95 (from 112) for OJ after today (day view). The hourly view is even worse, as the high of the day was 107 and it closed at 100. It is just by curiosity for following up as I do not have any involvement anymore in OJ.
For Coffee C, I could consider to short it up to 106 - 104 and then a long one...but one needs "cojones" for that...
I am not sure I am ready to the task as there are three other equities I followed closely to get out of the market...
There are rumors on a cold front/cold temperature in Brazil during the night but I do not buy too much into it...We will know more my mid-week.
For Cocoa my naked put was ready, but after the increase of price of today, it is not worth it anymore
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I am still long coffee, cocoa, sugar, and orange juice.

have added again the short KCU C130 to the short puts.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #72 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 74 since Mar 2019
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Sugar 11 does not look good after this news! -1.67% yesterday Edit -2% today at 11.55
"India announced that it would continue subsidizing its sugar exports, flooding an already oversupplied market (WSJ)."
I continue to stay aside from sugar. I will assess a potential support at 11 (needs to check my graph).
OJ closed yesterday at 103 still far from my target of 95 for end of July. Edit close at 100 today...
Coffee C at 106 still not in my target area for considering to intervene (holding my 92.5 put option KCZ19). Edit I am losing some patience there I tried to get P100 KCH20 unsuccessfully at a reasonable price for me...
Cocoa stable (holding my 2300 put option CCH20).


Last edited by Sagal; July 18th, 2019 at 04:22 PM.
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  #73 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
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After looking at the graph for sugar 11 I would be comfortable for selling a put at 10 finally...
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  #74 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
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Sagal View Post
After looking at the graph for sugar 11 I would be comfortable for selling a put at 10 finally...
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I am less bullish regarding sugar than I was some weeks ago.

COT data is back to more or less neutral, and seasonals are bearish for the next couple of weeks.

I am not invested.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #75 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 74 since Mar 2019
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I forgot to say that when I tried to sell a put option on coffee for March, it was as well because I bought back my spread option on brent earlier than planned (a more than 2% move fritghtened me at 6 days from the expiry) as I didn't want to take any risk there...So I am not proud of that (the part of compensation or I do not know what exactly for Coffee) but I asked anyway a higher price than the spread price on the market and 15 mn before the closing and of course was not executed then I cancelled my order...Psychology, psychology...

Coffee C. I checked yesterday and today my 3 favorite website on COT and all displaying a different perspective. I have to say I read only one thing... be patient...it can go up or south in the near term. The other thing is that I will come back to Coffee, it is just that I do not feel which way it will go...and despite my willingness to go into it, I have to respect that...

By the way (more for myrrdin as the others here didn't express so much interest for Coffee...). I found and I am active in a dedicated coffee forum (on top of the one at Investing that is also good specially intraday):
Coffee Traders Forum

I recommend it to you as well. It does not mean I will not come here anymore, but I am the kind of trader that like to go deep in the issues and needs discussion, sharing, feedback and exchange on very specific commodities. So I am still looking as well for more specialized forum for the commodities displayed on my signature/avatar


Last edited by Sagal; July 20th, 2019 at 07:17 AM.
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  #76 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: Zaner360, TWS, Vantage
Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
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Posts: 1,548 since Nov 2014
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Sagal View Post
I forgot to say that when I tried to sell a put option on coffee for March, it was as well because I bought back my spread option on brent earlier than planned (a more than 2% move fritghtened me at 6 days from the expiry) as I didn't want to take any risk there...So I am not proud of that (the part of compensation or I do not know what exactly for Coffee) but I asked anyway a higher price than the spread price on the market and 15 mn before the closing and of course was not executed then I cancelled my order...Psychology, psychology...

Coffee C. I checked yesterday and today my 3 favorite website on COT and all displaying a different perspective. I have to say I read only one thing... be patient...it can go up or south in the near term. The other thing is that I will come back to Coffee, it is just that I do not feel which way it will go...and despite my willingness to go into it, I have to respect that...

By the way (more for myrrdin as the others here didn't express so much interest for Coffee...). I found and I am active in a dedicated coffee forum (on top of the one at Investing that is also good specially intraday):
Coffee Traders Forum

I recommend it to you as well. It does not mean I will not come here anymore, but I am the kind of trader that like to go deep in the issues and needs discussion, sharing, feedback and exchange on very specific commodities. So I am still looking as well for more specialized forum for the commodities displayed on my signature/avatar

Thank you for the link to the coffee forum. I just registered there as Myrrdin.

The next potential large move of coffee price will depend on the weather forecasts for the blooming period in Brazil. hard to predict.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #77 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 74 since Mar 2019
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Patience is something I am always working on...being mostly on options for my swing trading helps a lot...but I went long yesterday with a naked put at 97.5 expiring in February 2020 (it was when the price popped up in 2 hours over 102 and you never know)...It seems that it was not the ideal timing...but better than my previous attempt...Ready to defend it or to increase my positions on Arabica with other naked put if needed...I am not ready for going into it only with futures, but I want to be invested in Coffee C...My priority n1 for swing trading...
I am already loaded in Cocoa and I do not plan to invest in Cotton, Orange Juice or Sugar in the next coming months (although I would be there in November or December if OJ is going to the roof...for some call options...)


Last edited by Sagal; July 27th, 2019 at 09:22 AM.
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  #78 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
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Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
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Posts: 1,548 since Nov 2014
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Sagal View Post
Patience is something I am always working on...being mostly on options for my swing trading helps a lot...but I went long yesterday with a naked put at 97.5 expiring in February 2020 (it was when the price popped up in 2 hours over 102 and you never know)...It seems that it was not the ideal timing...but better than my previous attempt...Ready to defend it or to increase my positions on Arabica with other naked put if needed...I am not ready for going into it only with futures, but I want to be invested in Coffee C...My priority n1 for swing trading...
I am already loaded in Cocoa and I do not plan to invest in Cotton, Orange Juice or Sugar in the next coming months (although I would be there in November or December if OJ is going to the roof...for some call options...)

I hold a similar position, the KCH P100, for some months now. There are several good reasons why coffee prices could move upwards - eg. weather during the blooming period in Brazil, weather before the crop in Vietnam. This uncertainty will, in my opinion, at least take care that coffee price will not move strongly downwards.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #79 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 74 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 21 given, 58 received

Finally I went out for Cocoa with a flat loss with my option, I do not have the nerve to sustain the current situation and 2300 is a too high price to hold up to February. I would be more comfortable with 2100 but option price at that strike is ridiculous for me. So currently out.

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  #80 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
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Broker/Data: DeCarley, IAB, RJO
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 1,548 since Nov 2014
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Sagal View Post
Finally I went out for Cocoa with a flat loss with my option, I do not have the nerve to sustain the current situation and 2300 is a too high price to hold up to February. I would be more comfortable with 2100 but option price at that strike is ridiculous for me. So currently out.

COT data for Cocoa are bearish. I will enter CC from the long side after a severe wash out.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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