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Softs (Fundamentals)
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Created: by myrrdin Attachments:10

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Softs (Fundamentals)

  #61 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
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Concerning OJ as we discussed I am not as sure as you are.
Seasonality. End of June beginning of July on 5, 15 and 40 years is one of the three lowest points of the season and lower than May.
AT is still bearish (weekly) as well as fundamental so I am keeping myself ready...It will not be for staying 3 months but 2 or 3 weeks maybe enough to go from 112 to 95...Then I will come back in October, November December for the seasonal rally...
Now maybe I will focus even more on Coffee C (I am considering increasing my bullish futures positions now that 102 seems to hold and as I cannot sell another put option OTM and at a good price). I will assess again the situation tomorrow...

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  #62 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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Ad OJ: Short position for Large Specs is the largest since 2006 and 50 % larger than in 2015, the second largest. (I do not have older figures.) This makes me optimistic that the May low will hold.

Ad OJ and KC: I am not sure if Orange Juice or Coffee will make significant highs this year. This depends on mother nature. But there is a potential for significant highs, especially in OJ.

But, as already mentioned, I think the lows for this year are in.

We will see.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #63 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
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Record net short position for commercials for OJ was -33170 on 11/18/1997
Record net long position for commercials for OJ was + 9102 on 07/03/2001

Record net short position for non-commercials for OJ was -8546 on 07/08/2003
Record net long position for non-commercials for OJ was + 22745 on 08/02/2011

So in comparaison we have approx. currently -6400 commercials and +5200 non-commercials
https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/dea/cotarchives/2019/futures/deanybtsf051419.htm

Still nothing remarkable with regards to record positions. I will check if I can have a presentation of the data as O Hansen's one but I doubt I will find it. I had the project to do this kind of things myself but I gave up...

Edit with coffee prices briefly going to 99 today I managed to sell my short option put KCZ19 strike 92.5...

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  #64 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Sagal View Post
Record net short position for commercials for OJ was -33170 on 11/18/1997
Record net long position for commercials for OJ was + 9102 on 07/03/2001

Record net short position for non-commercials for OJ was -8546 on 07/08/2003
Record net long position for non-commercials for OJ was + 22745 on 08/02/2011

So in comparaison we have approx. currently -6400 commercials and +5200 non-commercials
https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/dea/cotarchives/2019/futures/deanybtsf051419.htm

Still nothing remarkable with regards to record positions. I will check if I can have a presentation of the data as O Hansen's one but I doubt I will find it. I had the project to do this kind of things myself but I gave up...

Edit with coffee prices briefly going to 99 today I managed to sell my short option put KCZ19 strike 92.5...

I do not have data from before 2006, and, thus, cannot compare your data with mine.

Looking at the data from CFTC (your link) for orange juice, commercials are long 14001 positions and short 8812 positions, and, thus, in total approx. 5,200 positions long (and not -6400).

I will stay with my KCH P1 and my outright futures for the time being.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #65 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
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Right I mixed up the name.
I think I got your point as summarized in this article
https://www.hedgefundtips.com/what-the-commitment-of-traders-says-about-orange-juice-futures/


The COT aggregated is also clearly showing your point, but ok it is something that can develop on several months (and I mostly have in mind June or July or eventually August.
In anycase I bought Briese's book on COT...and it will be a priority to read it thoroughly...

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Coming back to Coffee C, it was a very interesting day 102 - 99 - and ending 104.6 with significant volume as the previous days. Several times a day I wonder if I should increase my bullish position, but it will not be reasonable. In addition Brent will require my attention...and others from my list...


Last edited by Sagal; May 31st, 2019 at 08:01 PM.
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  #66 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
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Maybe the first sign of a slow down for Orange Juice. High of the day: 112.6 Low of the day: 107. Volume 1119. These data summarized what I do not like with OJ...
The week is not over, currently there is the beginning of the formation of a long-legged doji below a resistance area on the weekly chart.


Last edited by Sagal; June 4th, 2019 at 03:53 PM.
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  #67 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
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Few comments today on OJ and Coffee C. For OJ, the short-term picture is darkened but I didn't check the forecast, hurricane etc.
For Coffee C I knew that it can only be very difficult...that's why it is my priority and I strengthened my bullish short term view at the end of the trading day.
Therefore I have to let go OJ as I give the priority to be able to intervene on the Brent...

Any conviction for Cotton for December or October contracts? This time I can see something noticeable on the COT and for me the COT is bullish.
In addition there is backwardation for the two next contracts,
Concerning the fundamental I need to recheck. I do not know when is the next publication...I check...


Last edited by Sagal; June 5th, 2019 at 04:12 PM.
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  #68 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Sagal View Post
Few comments today on OJ and Coffee C. For OJ, the short-term picture is darkened but I didn't check the forecast, hurricane etc.
For Coffee C I knew that it can only be very difficult...that's why it is my priority and I strengthened my bullish short term view at the end of the trading day.
Therefore I have to let go OJ as I give the priority to be able to intervene on the Brent...

Any conviction for Cotton for December or October contracts? This time I can see something noticeable on the COT and for me the COT is bullish.
In addition there is backwardation for the two next contracts,
Concerning the fundamental I need to recheck. I do not know when is the next publication...I check...

I am glad I sold the KCU C130 yeserday ...

I still hold the OJ long position, and intend to hold it. Stop on close below the contract low.

I do not have an opinion on Cotton. Just one thing: The October copntract is relatively thin. i prefer trading the December contract after expiry of the July.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #69 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
Thanks: 24 given, 64 received

Good for you for the Coffee...
Well if it goes below 98 I will change my short-term views

Fundamental is mixed for Cotton and as for many things currently will depend on tariff issues. On top of that the seasonality is not so good for an option contract ending in November. I will probably pass...
Thanks for your quick feedback and for as well for seasonalgo although on this one I didn't find the topic yet....

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  #70 (permalink)
Strasbourg, France
 
 
Posts: 80 since Mar 2019
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One step closer to 95 (from 112) for OJ after today (day view). The hourly view is even worse, as the high of the day was 107 and it closed at 100. It is just by curiosity for following up as I do not have any involvement anymore in OJ.
For Coffee C, I could consider to short it up to 106 - 104 and then a long one...but one needs "cojones" for that...
There are rumors on a cold front/cold temperatures in Brazil during the nights to come but I do not buy too much into it...We will know more my mid-week.
For Cocoa my naked put option was ready, but after the increase of price of today, it is not worth it anymore
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Last edited by Sagal; July 1st, 2019 at 03:44 PM.
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