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Softs (Fundamentals)
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Created: by myrrdin Attachments:10

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Softs (Fundamentals)

  #21 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Linz Austria
 
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myrrdin View Post
I hold a long position in coffee, as the blooming period in Brazil approaches and the weather forecast is dry. COT data is bullish. My stop is close, as a change in the weather forecast will bring coffee price down again.

I also hold a long position in cocoa for months, covered by calls (currently CCZ C2100) above the market. The expected move upwards of the underlaying does not happen, but the options make money. COT data is bullish.

Lumber might get interesting after the hurricanes have gone. Seasonals are bearish for the next couple of weeks.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I was stopped out of the coffee trade, and do not intend to trade it again from the long side for the next couple of months.

Still hold the cocoa futures, but bought back the calls when they were cheap.

Currently I do not intend to sell lumber.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #22 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Monthly report on fundamentals of softs for October:

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/ICE_Monthly_Softs_Fast_Facts.pdf?el...qat=1&elqCampaignId=1748

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #23 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Monthly report on fundamentals of softs for December:


https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/ICE_Monthly_Softs_Fast_Facts.pdf?el...qat=1&elqCampaignId=2282

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #24 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Unfortunately, Soft Fast Facts Report will be subscription based in 2018. See Details below.

Best regards, Myrrdin


"Softs Fast Facts Report will be Subscription Based Starting January 2018.

Starting next month, the ICE will no longer be providing research from outside suppliers. The Softs Fast Facts report, which has been written monthly since 2009 as a service for IBís and others in the industry, will continue to be published but as a service offered by J Ganes Consulting, LLC directly. Registration and payment is through J Ganes Consulting.
For more information about how to continue to receive this report please contact:
Judith Ganes, President J Ganes Consulting, LLC
judyg@jganesconsulting www.jganesconsulting.com"

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  #25 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I currently hold the following positions:

CCH
Longterm trade. S&D bullish. Seasonals bullish, but chart did not follow seasonal chart in recent months. December low should hold.

KCH - KCH C125
Longterm trade. COT data bullish.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #26 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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myrrdin View Post
I currently hold the following positions:

CCH
Longterm trade. S&D bullish. Seasonals bullish, but chart did not follow seasonal chart in recent months. December low should hold.

KCH - KCH C125
Longterm trade. COT data bullish.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I currently hold the following positions:

(CCH)
Just took profit on this position, which I held for quite a while. In case of a set-back I intend to re-enter.

KCK - KCK C130
Rolled into May contract. Longterm trade. COT data bullish.

-CTZ
COT data bearish, acreage will be larger as expected in my opinion.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #27 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I am long coffee via futures for many months now. Sold many calls above the market, but the trade is still negative as a whole.

COT data is at an extreme, and the blooming period is just ahead.

Thus, I added some long KCZ C110 recently.

I expect the coffee price to raise to approx. 125 or higher before the end of the year. In case of major weather problems in September / October much higher.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #28 (permalink)
London, UK
 
 
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@myrrdin, when you go long with futures, do you also purchase a put as insurance? The charts show that commodities
can go more and more oversold (or overbought) before some sort of mean reversion occurs. I'm just curious as
to how you deal with a outright futures trade going against you. I see you sell calls against a long future to get some
money back.

So far, I haven't done any outrights, and when I do, I'll probably make it a collar trade, till I grow more confident.

(Disclosure - I actually sold a put credit spread on KCZ18 this week, an aggressive Oct 1.15-1.10 spread for a credit
of 0.026).

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  #29 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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zxcv64 View Post
@myrrdin, when you go long with futures, do you also purchase a put as insurance? The charts show that commodities
can go more and more oversold (or overbought) before some sort of mean reversion occurs. I'm just curious as
to how you deal with a outright futures trade going against you. I see you sell calls against a long future to get some
money back.

So far, I haven't done any outrights, and when I do, I'll probably make it a collar trade, till I grow more confident.

(Disclosure - I actually sold a put credit spread on KCZ18 this week, an aggressive Oct 1.15-1.10 spread for a credit
of 0.026).

Sometimes I buy an option as a protection, more often I do not. It depends if I can find a good entry with a close stop or not.

In the case of very longterm trade - eg. my coffee and cocoa trades - I like selling call options against the futures to reduce potential losses.

The most important thing (sorry for repeating myself): Keep lot size small.

Your October options expire on September 14th. The next potential market mover in Coffee will be the blooming period in Brazil in September / October. Your options, which are currently in the money, might expire too early. I bought some KCZ C1.1 (additionally to my longterm future position) recently to take profit from this event. COT data is extremely bullish, and any weather problem will cause a severe price move. This is why I prefer buying (!) ATM options in this case.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #30 (permalink)
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myrrdin View Post
I am long coffee via futures for many months now. Sold many calls above the market, but the trade is still negative as a whole.

COT data is at an extreme, and the blooming period is just ahead.

Thus, I added some long KCZ C110 recently.

I expect the coffee price to raise to approx. 125 or higher before the end of the year. In case of major weather problems in September / October much higher.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I bought yesterday one (1) "BJO" (which is a Coffee ETN) ITM $37 Call and sold (1) BJO OTM $35 Put as a test. I closed positive yesterday and it went up big time today. I wish I had gone larger, but the Coffee contract is simply too big for me. Is it $35k/point? Phewww... Is it the same size with an ATM Call (~50 delta) or is it reduced?

COT is indeed extreme bullish and I think I am starting to read it better now. The downtrend is probably still on, but obviously no risk with this very small trade.

@myrrdin what are your views on Soybeans? It seemed the down swing was about to end but I feel it is resuming back and going to the 814 area...

Regards.

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