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Any idea how to trade CL on Inventories Day?
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Any idea how to trade CL on Inventories Day?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member @ Ibiza
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Any idea how to trade CL on Inventories Day?

Hi guys


I'm just seeing that trading on Inventoies Day usually gives me surprises, some good, some bad, but thinking that maybe is better to avoid it:

1- If you trade before the news you could get stuck by a range move

2- If you wait after the news came, which what I do always sometimes the price moves into a big backward move and it's difficult to know when the price is stable to make a good trade...

How do trade this day guys??? or you just don't trade that day???

Thanks to all


Last edited by noyss; August 26th, 2016 at 08:10 AM.
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  #3 (permalink)
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That's a question I've asked myself a few months back.

What is your trading style, what do you do ?

My main strategy is to do intraday trend-following and when I look at 40 years of data, trade my strategy every day, or trade it every day at the exception of days that are inventory days, I have the same results, roughly. So for my trading style, on average over a long period of time, inventory day is traded as business as usual.

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  #4 (permalink)
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This is a tricky one.

I typically am very cautious on report days as any surprises can send prices skyrocketing or dropping like a rock.

Usually you'll see market movement in the days leading up to the market report as to what the report is "expected" to say.

In other words, if traders are expecting a bullish report, you'll see prices moving up prior to the report date. But, if the report turns on to be bearish or not as bullish - not what was expected, then this is when we can see big price moves.

Just be careful trading on report days is the best advice I can give. Use stops and/or futures options to minimize risk.

Best wishes,

Joe

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  #5 (permalink)
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I usually trade 5 minutes before the Inventory report and resume trading 5 minutes after the report comes out. The report itself provides information on how our stock pile is doing (supply/demand) and the market will move based on the numbers versus what is expected. When the report comes out I usually stay out of the market during this time.

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Crude Inventory strategy

My strategy goes a little something like this...

First, I identify the recent (past 5-10 days or so) trend direction based on 30 min or 60 min chart. If the trend is up, I will only be looking to buy, ditto down = sell. I will usually then wait about 7-10 minutes after the report for the initial volatility to settle a bit. Then I'll be looking for price to break a support/resistance level (prior day high/low, etc) in the direction of the trend I previously identified.

It doesn't always trigger a trade; sometimes the move is against the trend or price just sticks in a range. But when it does trigger, I find it can typically spur a 20-30, even 50+ tick move in fairly quick fashion. I will usually put my initial SL at 15-20 ticks and peel off a contract at 10 tick target, leaving one to run and moving SL to break-even or a few ticks profit.

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  #7 (permalink)
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wintergasp View Post
That's a question I've asked myself a few months back.

What is your trading style, what do you do ?

My main strategy is to do intraday trend-following and when I look at 40 years of data, trade my strategy every day, or trade it every day at the exception of days that are inventory days, I have the same results, roughly. So for my trading style, on average over a long period of time, inventory day is traded as business as usual.

First of al. Thanks to all, good ideas I can take

Yes, I'm intraday trend and discretional trader Wintergasp. In the end, my way in just to wait 10 min more or less until all the excitement or panic has gone and go for the trade, if any, after break the lines or support/ressistance. I try to draw meticulously because the range should appear really big and out of context, but doing and waiting for the right time there is some days that is worthit.


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I leave you a good report about Oil Inventories and its reaction from year 2003 made by Tradestation:

https://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/analysis-concepts/crude-oil-inventories-and-price-reactions

Read it, it's curious and good to know

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  #9 (permalink)
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Hello Nyoss,

I am not a big fan of trading the news but I will on occasion trade the inventories report on the CL. I usually wait until the news comes out. I am of course looking for some surprise in the numbers. Once the report comes out I drop down to either three or five minute bars and look for an inside bar formation. Once I see this I trade in the direction of the move. I will exit when tick volume drops off or the move slows and develops intraday support and resistance levels

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I trade the release on a micro timeframe counting usually on at least one reversal and commonly two

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