That's what she describes as what she's seeking, anyway.
They're not really "random entries", if you read the detail.
The ideas behind the methods presented there are still probably far too random in their outcomes to be of much value to independent traders. When they're successful, they're successful only over a percentage of markets in any given year.
Many of her subsidiary points (e.g. trailing stops making performance deteriorate, overall) are clearly both right and provable, though.
Well, they are random in that you don't wait to be in a general area of support/resistance, or wait for a retracement... you simply enter the market at random but with the idea of going with the general trend.
As for the success rate, the slides state
This system was run 100 times on each market with randomly generated trade entries each time. The time period tested was from 1995 to 2005 on 22 domestic futures markets that included currencies, bonds, index futures, metals, agricultural products, and softs.
In the next slide it is further stated
The system was profitable between 92 – 100% of the time on all markets with the exception of live cows and hogs, (which tend not to trend for extended periods of time), as well as silver and natural gas – (probably due to its extreme spiky nature in recent years). All index futures were profitable 100% of the time over 100 randomly generated runs over 10 years of daily data!
The following 2 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
I think that this slide covers her key message - its all about the exit ( for this experiment she ran), which she cautions as "not the way to trade". I like Linda as she uses some of the techniques I relate to such as chart patterns.
"the larger the target the lower the percentage win rate."
This would definitely be true if the target range to stop range is increased.
Of course a systems profitability is not just a measure of win rate.
With multiple targets and multiple contracts a system can be tailored to reduce contracts can lessor targets (getting a higher win rate on smaller amounts for these)
and on condition set x
with a smaller percentage of contracts use the larger targets - probability moving the stop to BE on these
Condition set x could include
Target 1 is met ADR has increased
Mom has increased
no S/R is blocking
placement in H-L range is not > 80% (uptrend) <20% downtrend
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
Good trading to everyone.
The following user says Thank You to aquarian1 for this post: