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Bund and US Treasuries-correlations between indices/currencies
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Bund and US Treasuries-correlations between indices/currencies

  #1 (permalink)
London UK
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TT/Invesotr Rt/DTN.IQ
Broker/Data: LCT/Iq Feed
Favorite Futures: Dax/Bund/Dow/US 10 yr futures
Posts: 299 since Jul 2013
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Bund and US Treasuries-correlations between indices/currencies

Hi there,
Have been daytrading/scalping the ZN and am looking to start the Bund as well.

I have a question to ask as I've been monitoring currencies and stock indices and was wondering if there are correlations involved.
For instance, if the Bund is dropping and the EURUSD is shaping for a move to the upside, does this cap the move higher in EURUSD (so you'd actually be looking to fade the breakout in EURUSD).
Conversely, if the Bund is rising and the EURUSD is rising, does that mean you have confidence in the EURUSD breakout?

Or could it be the other way round and it is EURUSD that leads. So if EURUSD is dropping and the Bund is looking to break on the upside then you would fade the break (or not enter the break to the upside) because it most likely won't follow through with a dropping EURUSD?

I've monitored the ZN (10 Year US Treasury Note) and wonder if the same thing applies with the SandP 500?
I understand the correllation between bonds and stock markets (as in stock markets drop, investors think it's a bad investment so will buy govt bonds thus ensuring yields will drop).

In the case of the EURUSD, considering the euro is pretty much based on German performance, if the bund is dropping then it should mean that eurusd should be following (or the other way round, still not sure) as they are both basic measures of German economic performance/sentiment and the subsequent buying and selling pressure that should follow.

I hope all that makes sense and any help is much appreciated.


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  #2 (permalink)
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