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High volatility in gold (GC) ?
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High volatility in gold (GC) ?

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Winnipeg, MB , Canada
 
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@Gambler Wow 140% Excellent Job! Are those returns sustainable...? I guess that's why they call you the ''gambler'' lol . My first year in the grains was also last year I took a net loss. I had good weeks and bad weeks then when the volatility tapered down I couldn't sustain. I like when markets are moving fast or in a nice trend. Also @Gambler , Are you not trading anything at the moment? Are you working towards being a full time trader?

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  #12 (permalink)
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mpo7 View Post
@Gambler Wow 140% Excellent Job! Are those returns sustainable...? I guess that's why they call you the ''gambler'' lol . My first year in the grains was also last year I took a net loss. I had good weeks and bad weeks then when the volatility tapered down I couldn't sustain. I like when markets are moving fast or in a nice trend. Also @Gambler , Are you not trading anything at the moment? Are you working towards being a full time trader?

Like I said this year I'll continue to test my methodology. I'm sitting on a cash and don't trade now. It's just small kids, a wife who washing my brains everyday because of computer and other things. My wife does not know I trade. She will kill me probably when she learns. Saying that I still keep my eye on Brazil and Argentina to open a trade.
Yes I'm working towards to be a full time trader. I immigrated to country where you live with a dream to be a trader. Instead I got a good full time office job which I hate. Hope in 3-5 years things will change.
As per agriculture futures I think there is less manipulation in this market. The key things for me:
Inventory, weather, political news and investors behavior. There are other things as well to watch, but what I mentioned before create a perfect trend. And one more and the most important thing: you have to predict a trend is coming based on factors I mentioned. I've been taking three times $1K realized per one contract. The biggest loss was $1.7K. I was betting on hope and against the trend. Got it fast and my last 10 trades after that were profitable.
And the final part. Even if you follow this, the hardest part would be in your head. Your mind have to control your emotions and fears. I think that is a main reason why traders fail. They trade on emotions and fears.

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  #13 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Gold is in an uptrend since January 5.

However, the volatility has only slightly increased after the SNB announcement.

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What vwap are you using on that chart?

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  #14 (permalink)
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humseper View Post
What vwap are you using on that chart?

The VWAP is a 5-day rolling VWAP. This means that it calculates the price as a volume-weighted average of all transactions that have been made during the last 5 trading days. Usually 5 trading days are identical with a rolling week.

However, last Monday was Martin-Luther-King Day. CME does not count it as a separate trading day, but integrates it with the following trading day. For that reason the indicator shown on the chart, calculated thals value for the volume-weighted average from Thursday, January 15 6:00 PM EST to Friday, January 23m 5:15 PM EST.

You can approximate the rolling VWAP on a minute chart by adding a volume-weighted moving average. Let us suppose that you wish to display a 5-day VWMA on a 15 minute chart for ES. In that case you need to count the number of 15 minute bars within a day (23 x 4 = 92), which makes up for 5 x 92 = 460 bars in 5 days. Set the period of the VWMA to 460 and MaximumBarsLookBack to Infinite, and you will see an approximated weekly rolling VWAP.

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  #15 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
The VWAP is a 5-day rolling VWAP. This means that it calculates the price as a volume-weighted average of all transactions that have been made during the last 5 trading days. Usually 5 trading days are identical with a rolling week.

However, last Monday was Martin-Luther-King Day. CME does not count it as a separate trading day, but integrates it with the following trading day. For that reason the indicator shown on the chart, calculated thals value for the volume-weighted average from Thursday, January 15 6:00 PM EST to Friday, January 23m 5:15 PM EST.

You can approximate the rolling VWAP on a minute chart by adding a volume-weighted moving average. Let us suppose that you wish to display a 5-day VWMA on a 15 minute chart for ES. In that case you need to count the number of 15 minute bars within a day (23 x 4 = 92), which makes up for 5 x 92 = 460 bars in 5 days. Set the period of the VWMA to 460 and MaximumBarsLookBack to Infinite, and you will see an approximated weekly rolling VWAP.

So I can use it with the ana vwap? Can you tell me which box I set the period of the vwap?

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  #16 (permalink)
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humseper View Post
So I can use it with the ana vwap? Can you tell me which box I set the period of the vwap?

There is no rolling VWAP which is available as part of the ana family. You would need to use VWMA and then add Bollinger Bands.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Thanks!

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