NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





The CL Crude-analysis Thread


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 683 posts (1,274 thanks)
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 303 posts (479 thanks)
    3. looks_3 WilleeMac with 275 posts (218 thanks)
    4. looks_4 ron99 with 165 posts (262 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 1.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 1.6 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 ron99 with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 WilleeMac with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 606,440 views
    2. thumb_up 3,558 thanks given
    3. group 286 followers
    1. forum 2,696 posts
    2. attach_file 644 attachments




 
Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2291 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192


SMCJB View Post
If you believe Raoul Pal this is just the beginning of the Oil rout and is all tied into the bigger Global Macro picture. Already experiencing a global slowdown, and about to have a global recession. Now add in a massive US-China trade war and China devaluing their currency* - which effects everybody. The US already has a massive pension crisis around the corner, but what happens if we do have a sell off and the baby boomers start panic selling? There's a lot more on Real Vision TV but he's Long Bonds (well actually Eurodollars (which is USD LIBOR not EUR:USD), Long Gold, Long Bitcoin, Short Equities, Short Crude and some other (non-precious metal) commodities. So far he's been very right on the Eurodollars** - which is his biggest recommendation - and the Gold and Bitcoin. In contrast historically some of his crude oil calls have been pretty poor I believe.

Long Raoul twitter thread with lots of charts. Warning: Doom & Gloom the world is coming to an end.
https://threader.app/thread/1159076338126532610

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
18 thanks
  #2292 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

Interesting crude curve shape currently.



Which got me thinking. Have I ever seen a U shape that steep before. Just eyeballing that chart you can see that both Z9 and Z4 are about $3 above Z1. So despite the Z9-Z4 spread being approximately flat, the Z9-Z1-Z4 Butterfly is approximately $6!

So to keep things symmetrical I want to look at Z9-Z1-Z3 which is obviously not quite as exaggerated. Also I want to look at 'constant maturity'. So since Z9 is currently the 4th contract I am going to look at CL04-CL28-CL52 and this is what we get.



So yes, in the last 5 years, this is about as U'y as the curve has ever been!

Reply With Quote
  #2293 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192


Sorry 2nd post.
Right after I posted that, I thought, doesn't the Eurodollar (ie 90 day LIBOR) curve have the same shape.

Obviously axis are scaled but interesting none the less.



For those that don't know Eurodollar Futures prices are (100 minus the 90 day LIBOR rate on the day of expiry) so a price of 98 represents an interest rate of 2%

Reply With Quote
  #2294 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

Found that putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly better using 12 month calendars rather than outrights (of course cost is commissions)


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #2295 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192


jokertrader View Post
putting on the Z19Z21z23 fly

You did that? While it definitely looks out of whack, Z9's a little close to expiry for my liking.

Reply With Quote
  #2296 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

In Sim was more testing TT


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #2297 (permalink)
 
ElChacal's Avatar
 ElChacal 
Houston, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader TWS Barchart
Broker: IB / IB
Trading: SPY, QQQ
Posts: 414 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 471
Thanks Received: 278

$DWT getting lots of attention today and also yesterday. Seems CL is meeting resistance at this level.

Reply With Quote
  #2298 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

WTI +$60.65 +$5.80
Brent +$67.22 +$7.00
HO $2.0457 +$0.1679
RB $1.7108 +$0.1577

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #2299 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,041 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,375
Thanks Received: 10,192

Here we are, 10 days later, and all the fears have gone.... hmmm.... in fact prices in 2020 and 2021 are potentially lower than before the shock


Reply With Quote
  #2300 (permalink)
 
WilleeMac's Avatar
 WilleeMac 
Prospect, KY. USA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity
Trading: /CL
Posts: 687 since Jan 2012
Thanks Given: 309
Thanks Received: 617



SMCJB View Post
Here we are, 10 days later, and all the fears have gone.... hmmm.... in fact prices in 2020 and 2021 are potentially lower than before the shock

Yes sir



I've been waiting for the gap fill

Thank you and have an outstanding day

-Willee

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on March 23, 2024


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts