NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





The CL Crude-analysis Thread


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 683 posts (1,274 thanks)
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 303 posts (479 thanks)
    3. looks_3 WilleeMac with 275 posts (218 thanks)
    4. looks_4 ron99 with 165 posts (262 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 1.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 1.6 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 ron99 with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 WilleeMac with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 617,092 views
    2. thumb_up 3,558 thanks given
    3. group 286 followers
    1. forum 2,696 posts
    2. attach_file 644 attachments




 
Search this Thread

The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1941 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

Cl is about 288 (sorry forgot the actual number)
and
NG is more like 750

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
What broker to use for trading palladium futures
Commodities
How to apply profiles
Traders Hideout
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Cheap historycal L1 data for stocks
Stocks and ETFs
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
 
  #1942 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207


jokertrader View Post
CL vs NG :

Outrights: (U17) 2888 vs 1925

3 month calendar (U17/Z17): 308 for Cl vs 495 for NG

3 month fly: (U17/Z17/H18): 154 for Cl vs 935 for NG

$935 for a NG 3 month fly??? why so much compared to CL... i know NG 3 month is prob more volatile than Cl but SOO much more?? why?

Is it i picked the wrong months since NG in winter can move either way?

********* i dont think so *********

3 month fly in summer: March/June/Sept 18

NG: 635
vs
CL: 89 (really 89..... wow)

Of course this could increase as we get closer

NG Spreads in general, and certain ones in particular, are definitely more volatile than CL Spreads, its far more seasonal than CL.
(100 day standard deviation of daily change of CLU7/Z7 is 60.2c or $602/contract while for NGU7/Z7 it's 0.99c or $994/contract.
If you divide the margin by these USD values you get 5.1 and 5.0!)

When we get back to winter NG is more volatile in general, and come December outright margins will be higher than CL as well.

The other thing you need to consider is that SPAN uses tiers. Spreads 'within' a tier are margined at lower rates than spreads 'between' tiers. I'm not sure which tiers the contracts you picked are in, but that could have an effect as well.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1943 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207



CobblersAwls View Post
Will be interesting to see how positioning has changed during the latest sell-off to $44's.

Commitment of Traders says a lot more shorts added

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1944 (permalink)
 
CobblersAwls's Avatar
 CobblersAwls 
London, United Kingdom
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Broker: Bloomberg
Trading: Energies
Posts: 310 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 1,089
Thanks Received: 386



Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1945 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207


jokertrader View Post
spread(CLES12Z7-CLES12Z8-CLES12Z8+CLES12Z9) chart


SMCJB View Post
Dropped to -40, lower end of the last 6 month range while z890-z901 at -7 is at the higher end of the last 5 month range.

CL z7z8z9z0 Double Fly back to -12, 8901 also at -12, so thats' closed 30+c in 5 days.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1946 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

CL z7z8z9z0 Double Fly back to -12

So this is
A1) spread(CLES12Z7-CLES12Z8-CLES12Z8+CLES12Z9) chart

which can also be written as
A2) z789fly - z890fly as thus (CLES12Z7-CLES12Z8)-(CLES12Z8-CLES12Z9)

A1 and A2 chart match and makes sense
(of course i see them at -0.14 as i am writing this)


CL 8901 Double fly is at -0.08 as i am writing this

Posting the charts for confirmation


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #1947 (permalink)
 Grantx 
Reading UK
Legendary no drama Llama
 
Experience: None
Posts: 1,787 since Oct 2016
Thanks Given: 2,826
Thanks Received: 5,059


jokertrader View Post
CL z7z8z9z0 Double Fly back to -12

So this is
A1) spread(CLES12Z7-CLES12Z8-CLES12Z8+CLES12Z9) chart

which can also be written as
A2) z789fly - z890fly as thus (CLES12Z7-CLES12Z8)-(CLES12Z8-CLES12Z9)

A1 and A2 chart match and makes sense
(of course i see them at -0.14 as i am writing this)


CL 8901 Double fly is at -0.08 as i am writing this

Posting the charts for confirmation


Hey jokertrader, what does all this mean?
z789fly?
CLES12Z7-CLES12Z8?
What are those charts of?
Thanks

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #1948 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

Look through the last 10 or so pages

For CQG, Crude symbol is CLE

outright is CLEM7 (for June)
a 1 month calendar will be CLES1M7 (S1 denoting 1 month spread and M7 is the starting month)
a 3 month calendar will be CLES3M7 (S3 denoting 3 month spread and M7 is the starting month)

So CLES12Z7 means 12 month calendar from Z7 (Dec) - so Crude dec 2017/Dec 2018 calendar

A fly is 2 calendars (one calendar minus the other calendar)
CLES12Z7 - CLES12Z8 means

Long Crude dec 2017/Dec 2018
Short Crude Dec 2018/Dec 2019

(so if u think of an option butterfly where you are 1/2/1 with the middle being short 2, similarly you are short Dec 2018 twice and long Dec 2017 and Dec 2019

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1949 (permalink)
 Grantx 
Reading UK
Legendary no drama Llama
 
Experience: None
Posts: 1,787 since Oct 2016
Thanks Given: 2,826
Thanks Received: 5,059


jokertrader View Post
Look through the last 10 or so pages

For CQG, Crude symbol is CLE

outright is CLEM7 (for June)
a 1 month calendar will be CLES1M7 (S1 denoting 1 month spread and M7 is the starting month)
a 3 month calendar will be CLES3M7 (S3 denoting 3 month spread and M7 is the starting month)

So CLES12Z7 means 12 month calendar from Z7 (Dec) - so Crude dec 2017/Dec 2018 calendar

A fly is 2 calendars (one calendar minus the other calendar)
CLES12Z7 - CLES12Z8 means

Long Crude dec 2017/Dec 2018
Short Crude Dec 2018/Dec 2019

(so if u think of an option butterfly where you are 1/2/1 with the middle being short 2, similarly you are short Dec 2018 twice and long Dec 2017 and Dec 2019

Is this options trading or spread trading(Neither of which I have any clue on)? Or something else entirely?

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #1950 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360


These are futures spreads (not options)

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on March 23, 2024


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts