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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1821 (permalink)
 ron99 
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I have put Tanker Tracker.com data into my Tableau graphs. Let me know what you think or any changes I should make.

See Energies-Oil Shipping Data here

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Here is one example


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  #1822 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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LOL I am now a "fact checker" for EIA.


Quoting 
Thank you for pointing out our error involving the “last year” data column in the Supply and Demand tables. We have since corrected it as you will be able to see in our latest NGWU postings from Feb. 2 and Feb. 9:
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Best regards,
Peter
Peter Gross
Energy Information Administration
U.S. DOE
202-586-8822


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  #1823 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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ron99 View Post
I have put Tanker Tracker.com data into my Tableau graphs. Let me know what you think or any changes I should make.

See Energies-Oil Shipping Data here

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

Have you compared their data to the EIAs?

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  #1824 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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SMCJB View Post
Have you compared their data to the EIAs?

It doesn't match up exactly but it gives you a tendency of which way the next report will lean.

Obviously more than oil imports affect oil inventory.

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  #1825 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Oil Trader View Post
Anybody fundamentally short on the market right now? I am kind of super bearish on the short-term

I think it was John Arnold that said
With Saudi Aramco targeting a 2018 IPO, I think market has underestimated their desire to keep the oil market supported for next 18 months.
Initially I didn't agree, but I've been surprised by OPECs adherance to the reduced quota's to date and now think he may have hit the nail on the head. I do believe with crude > 50 US production will ramp up though.

Weird S shaped forward curve currently with
  • H7 >$2 below Z7 but
  • M8 50c ish over M9 and then
  • Z20 $1ish below Z22
I believe I currently have the smallest CL spread position I have had in years

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  #1826 (permalink)
 ron99 
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Quoting 
US crude #Oil exports jump to over 1 million per day last week. Almost double the week before


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  #1827 (permalink)
ahuja1998
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Hello everyone,

Recently I read about the forward curve (not only for Crude Oil futures, but for any other commodities futures in general). I am wondering how useful it is as an indicator or a trading tool?

Basically it's a plot of front-month price of crude oil futures and subsequent months price.

Anyone?

Hiran

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  #1828 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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ahuja1998 View Post
Recently I read about the forward curve (not only for Crude Oil futures, but for any other commodities futures in general). I am wondering how useful it is as an indicator or a trading tool?

Welcome Hiran.

How useful it as an indicator or trading tool to do what? Trading prompt month crude? Pretty much none at all. Trading spreads? Well that's what trading spreads is, trading the shape of the forward curve. I personally believe (and have documented in this thread) that the forward curve twists and turns in ways that can be profited from by taking low risk, high probability trades. The problem these are all spreads and/or butterfiles and are often difficult if not impossible to execute effectively on most retail platforms. More than willing to discuss more if you have specific ideas or questions.

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  #1829 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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WSJ :- The Oil Rally’s Nemesis Could Be U.S. Drivers — Energy Journal

"Americans used less gasoline last month than they have in 15 years, write Timothy Puko and Alison Sider. That has helped a gasoline supply glut to build up, with storage levels reaching the highest level in 27 years of U.S. record keeping."
The Oil Rally?s Nemesis Could Be U.S. Drivers?Energy Journal - MoneyBeat - WSJ

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  #1830 (permalink)
ahuja1998
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SMCJB View Post
Welcome Hiran.

How useful it as an indicator or trading tool to do what? Trading prompt month crude? Pretty much none at all. Trading spreads? Well that's what trading spreads is, trading the shape of the forward curve. I personally believe (and have documented in this thread) that the forward curve twists and turns in ways that can be profited from by taking low risk, high probability trades. The problem these are all spreads and/or butterfiles and are often difficult if not impossible to execute effectively on most retail platforms. More than willing to discuss more if you have specific ideas or questions.

Thanks SMCJB! Interested to read your previous thread on forward curve... do you have the URL link? Thanks~

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