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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #1811 (permalink)
 Trailer Guy 
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SMCJB View Post
Seems that even though I hadnt thought of it, obviously others had...

For years some of the pro's have played the Brent WTI spread. Ever since US was allowed to export crude the price differential has gotten a lot closer to the cost of transport from the gulf to Rotterdam.

Also the whole thing is being pushed by Bloomberg who seems to be in competition to be OPEC's favorite mouthpiece. Not saying they are always wrong but I am careful around their articles due to biased fake news without fact checking.

I am confident we will be seeing lots from Bloomberg as the Saudis and Venezuelans jaw bone like crazy to counter the actual inventory and production numbers. As in today at Davos with the we can do a second deal comment to the press front running the DOE inventory news. As we say in another forum 'all those 28 year old Ivey League History majors sitting on a record long CL position clearly know what they are doing'

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  #1812 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Trailer Guy View Post
For years some of the pro's have played the Brent WTI spread. Ever since US was allowed to export crude the price differential has gotten a lot closer to the cost of transport from the gulf to Rotterdam.

Don't forget we're still a net importer of oil so the arb needs to be open for oil to come here. Of course we import heavy crudes which trade at a significant, and far less visible, discount to brent. while the crude going to ARA is very light crude, not ideal for the more advanced US refiners, and is almost guaranteed to be on back-haul freight rates.

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  #1813 (permalink)
 
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 WilleeMac 
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Going forward this should prove to be interesting

Five attempts at 5351

-William

M240 OPEC 2016 to today


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  #1814 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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John Kemp, Rig Count & COT






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 WilleeMac 
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TankerTrackers

One of the key data points gaining popularity among successful oil traders is the question of where the commodity is, or is heading. And one of the best ways to follow the movement of oil is to track tanker information.

For example, TankerTrackers.com determined that in 2016, China spent an average of $41.28/barrel and added 270 million barrels of oil to its stockpiles. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, used 56 million barrels from its own storage. This information is all posted on the same day as official publication, in an easy to read format.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/free-tools-for-oil-traders:-tankertrackers.com-200174320

TankerTrackers

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  #1816 (permalink)
 
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 WilleeMac 
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Update to chart posted JAN 20

/CL M240 Continuous Futures Contract - Date Rule Rollover

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 WilleeMac 
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It looks as though OPEC has kept their promise (IEA)

BBG Energy News ‏@BloombergNRG 1h1 hour ago More

IEA reports record OPEC cut compliance and surprisingly strong #oil demand #OOTT


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OPEC achieved the best compliance rate in its history at the outset of an accord to clear the oil glut, a plan that’s being supported by surprising strength in demand, the International Energy Agency said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-10/opec-attains-record-90-of-output-cuts-as-demand-grows-iea-says?utm_content=energy&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy

-William

EDIT

IEA Monthly Report Schedule

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/schedule/

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  #1818 (permalink)
 
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 WilleeMac 
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Could the South China Sea cause the next oil price spike ?


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According to the oil tanker tracking website, TankerTrackers.com, “More than 15 million barrels transit [the South China Sea] on a daily basis as tankers make their way from the Middle East, through the Straits of Malacca, past Singapore and head northbound towards China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.” They see the body of water as “the single most important maritime chokepoint for the flow of oil.”

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#OOTT

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  #1819 (permalink)
 ron99 
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Quoting 
it takes ~47 days for crude from the Middle East to reach U.S. shores. Hence it makes logical sense that the final wave of December export loadings from the region are now arriving.

US LPG exports reach another record

Looking at Tanker tracker data I am seeing lower imports for PADD1 and PADD3 for next week's report. I am seeing higher imports for PADD5 (took longer for ships from Middle East to get to West coast?). But the rise at PADD5 will be less than drop at other ports.

There were also days this week that fog shut down ship movements in Houston Shipping Channel.

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  #1820 (permalink)
 
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WilleeMac View Post
Could the South China Sea cause the next oil price spike ?
Forbes Welcome
-William

What would happen to the price of oil in the event of a geopolitical flare-up in the South China Sea?

If tankers were prevented from traversing the South China Sea, the oil supply to China, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan would be immediately impacted . The price of oil to those areas would spike, and the region would experience shortages.
Agreed but I would have thought more on fear of an extension of the 'crisis' than the actual disruption itself - see third point. Tapis futures anybody?
However, because oil is a global commodity and the market is impacted by speculation, oil prices around the world would also rise.
Now there is some speculation on speculation!
It is possible for tankers to circumvent the South China Sea entirely, but these alternative routes are lengthy and add additional expenses that would be passed on to the consumer.
Crude oil shipment costs are relatively insignificant compared to its outright cost. Hence adding 10 days to a journey does make things more expensive, but not significantly.

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