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I often think of trade ideas, but seldom have time to perform analysis on them. I have even thought of hiring an "intern" type of person that could crunch numbers all day, but I thought I would try this thread first.
If I provide the raw formatted …
If not, there is at least a spreadsheet in there that shows you how to do it yourself.
IMO oil will be staying here or going lower the next 3 months. Record refinery oil demand now will drop off when summer driving is done. Oil production has not dropped enough to hold prices.
Refinery input peaks about now and then drops off to Nov.
That means that oil inventory will start growing again.
Hedge fund longs have increased the last 2 weeks. If they have to bail out then prices will drop further than expected.
Sorry for the delayed reply, was on holiday and only just got back last night. It's a good Q and one I will have to think about. I don't know too much about seasonalities but am just strating to look at them amongst others as I broaden my knowledge.
I suppose the best thing to do would be to look at the seasonal patterns of each month coupled with the context of each year - perhaps during some years there were events (war?) that lead to the demand for oil to change against the norm? You could then consider this for future months of interest in order to guage whether you think normal seasonal trends will hold true or whether other macro factors may override them. Then again I know very little...
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I'm been out the last 6 days and not 100% caught up yet.
Front end of the curve has been hit hardest with Sep/Oct down ~30c, Oct/Nov down ~20c, Nov/Dec down ~10c. Most of the other spreads have only widen approximately 2c though. While this seems like a drastic curve shift I've felt that these 3 spreads have been a little high for a while now, and actually had a trade on betting this curve shift would happen. Unfortunately I took most of it in the week before it all collapsed - very bad timing on my behalf but I don't like having positions that close to the prompt. Ignoring prompt Sep, the front 8/9 spreads look relatively in line to me - for the first time in a while.
As for taking an outright directional bet here, I have no opinion. In the last year the Month 2 - Month 7 spread has approximately a $9 range and we are close to being in the lower quartile of that range (chart 1). Saying that prices are now about as low as they have been in the last year, but contango is not anywhere near as steep as it was last time we were at these prices (chart 2). My gut feel is more in line with chart 2, ie that contango should be steeper here given outright prices, but that's not a trade I have on, or one that I necessarily want. Sorry for nothing more helpful.
dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see 
