SMCJB 

DOE crude inventories released today. Build of 5.4million barrels to a total of almost 388 million barrels. US crude stocks are the highest they've been in the last 15 years for this time of year by over 20 million barrels. Only time US has had more crude in storage in the last 15 years was the spring seasonal peak in 2008 and 2013 when we peaked just below 400million barrels. US Domestic crude oil production continues to increase and reached 9.2million barrels/day. This is over a 50% increase in the last 3 years, with Jan 2012 production below 6 million/day. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

And the fact that it rallied when it had every reason to sell off. It closed yesterday at highs and today was a follow through day. We'll see if it doesn't do a 180 by Monday then a range between 47 to 53 might be set

@tigertrader

This?

-Bill

Commercial short consistently comes in with numbers higher/ more than long - makes sense

Non Com has been getting their ass handed to them, looking at the numbers long only since JUN 14

However looking at the spreading numbers might lend an answer but very little clue as to how the coin toss turned up

So we have % change, maybe that's where "something" lies............

Point is we have two weeks back to back w/ black numbers

Tomorrow??

-Bill_M

My thoughts on yesterday end of day rally price rout

Close the contract at or above low, take profit etc etc

Nothing more

MAR OI is 427

-Bill

garyboy275 

Dont want to start an argument but the spreads are just going to kill you before it turns around and runs and CL can trade 10 or 20 for a few years before it goes back up. Sure if it does go back upto 100 u d make a killing or if you get a V bottom. But in either case you dont have to hold it indefinitely --either time it or get lucky

SMCJB 

Agree, roll cost could be enormous. You could easily buy $20 oil, be holding $20 oil in a years time and lost $7.50 in roll costs.

Financial Times, Jan15th 2015
Commodities explained: Contango

SMCJB 

Financial Times, Jan15th 2015 Commodities explained: Contango

One of the clear signs that Crude Oil has put a bottom in when the term structure changes or as the article points out as long as there is oil on the market looking for a home to be stored- crude will continue to search for a bottom. Till then every bounce is shortable. Bigger the bounce ( like today) bigger the opportunities.

Mid-Feb to Late- April looks very strong seasonally. And a second leg up June-August.

mfbreakout 

One of the clear signs that Crude Oil has put a bottom in when the term structure changes or as the article points out as long as there is oil on the market looking for a home to be stored- crude will continue to search for a bottom. Till then every bounce is shortable. Bigger the bounce ( like today) bigger the opportunities.

Question @mfbreakout when you say "when the term structure changes" what are you looking for/at? I personnally do not trade CL flat price, but I do trade term structure so I am curious what you mean.

On another note I shared a different article with a friend in the shipping industry where media sources talked about people utilizing VLCCs as floating storage. They interestingly contradicted that story and said at this point there is little evidence of that happening and that the VLCC market is actually quiet weak,

SMCJB on Dec 19th 

WTI and EUR:USD from June 1st till the day before the OPEC Meeting had a 93.5% correlation. Since the OPEC meeting WTI has plummeted but correlation with EUR:USD has broken down. Not sure, what if anything that means, but hey I found it interesting. Can't take credit for the idea, saw it in a presentation by Doug Huggins of Quantitative Markets Analysis in London, although I'm not sure what his exact time period was and he used Brent not WTI, Charts show NYMEX CL & CME 6E closing prices.

Thxo 

Time to buy then ... dont you think?

gain247 

... or maybe sell the EURUSD

And the answer was... Sell the Euro...



All charts have the same scaling, $5/bbl = 0.02 EUR/USD