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The CL Crude-analysis Thread
Started:December 17th, 2014 (02:33 PM) by tturner86 Views / Replies:125,805 / 1,754
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (01:02 AM) Attachments:450

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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

Old April 8th, 2015, 04:11 PM   #971 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
This thread seems to have posts on two subjects.

One is day trading with no interest in fundamentals by the day traders. The other is fundamentals with probably no interest in day trading.

Would each be served better by splitting the thread up?

I agree with @ron99 that if your really interested in the fundamental info, then you have to wade through all the day trading commentary to find. I'm not sure the opposite applies though. I think there are many here who may be day trading focused but want to see the fundamental info as well.

Hence my concern regarding splitting the thread would be that we end up fragmenting the fundamental information. We would end up with a fundamental thread that has half the fundamental info in it, and this thread which would become 75% day trading and 25% fundamental. Is somebody who is actively following this thread going to switch to another to post fundamental info and then switch back?

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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:16 PM   #972 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
If one can explain 10% up move in 2 days and then 6% down move in one day based on fundamentals- i am all ear. I have yet to come across one.

Ditto the technical explanation of why crude dropped over 50% in the last 6 months.

I think that's sort of @ron99's point. Fundamental's and day trading have extremely different time horizons and we are mish mashing them together in one thread.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:20 PM   #973 (permalink)
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SMCJB View Post
Ditto the technical explanation of why crude dropped over 50% in the last 6 months.

I think that's sort of @ron99's point. Fundamental's and day trading have extremely different time horizons and we are mish mashing them together in one thread.

That's why i proposed someone should start a thread based on fundamentals. I sure do not come to this thread looking for fundamentals aspect of CL trading. Analysis without execution is paralysis.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; April 8th, 2015 at 04:26 PM.
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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:22 PM   #974 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
This thread seems to have posts on two subjects.

One is day trading with no interest in fundamentals by the day traders. The other is fundamentals with probably no interest in day trading.

Would each be served better by splitting the thread up?

I would be more interested in the analysis part and not really the trading part. Both technical and fundamental.

I really dont care to see how someone is executing his analysis. There are journals for that and 2 dedicated forums on this site where one can post all the details of how one went about executing his beliefs.

Since this is an analysis thread, I would say that we keep it that.

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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:34 PM   #975 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
If one can explain 10% up move in 2 days and then 6% down move in one day based on fundamentals- i am all ear. I have yet to come across one.

I thought first part was almost completely explained in the article posted by @ron99 yesterday (on the top of page 95). Data pointing out at weak Cush readings in the mid of last week was available from certain service providers even on last Thursday. The second part was explained by API and EIA reports yesterday and today respectively.

No reason to split the thread from my PoV. But maybe to start another one just for data and analytic materials posting (but it will complicate reading I think). I trade fundamentals only, even intraday... but intraday I also watch order flow (not classic one though).

And BTW for those who missed that, April STEO was out yesterday
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/?src=home-b1

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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:37 PM   #976 (permalink)
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Alphachase View Post
I thought first part was almost completely explained in the article posted by @ron99 yesterday (on the top of page 95). Data pointing out at weak Cush readings in the mid of last week was available from certain service providers even on last Thursday. The second part was explained by API and EIA reports yesterday and today respectively.

No reason to split the thread from my PoV. But maybe to start another one just for data and analytic materials posting (but it will complicate reading I think). I trade fundamentals only, even intraday... but intraday I also watch order flow (not classic one though).

I did not need to read that report to trade but if it was helpful keep them coming. More post, more analysis and more execution can only help.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:40 PM   #977 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I did not need to read that report to trade but if it was helpful keep them coming. More post, more analysis and more execution cam only help.

Me neither (need to read it), that's true and I agree on that. But ## in these reports move markets even if those ## are hypothetical (like production estimate etc).

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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:50 PM   #978 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Since I was on the ignore list for IT7 I can't post to the thread he started. So I figured I would start a new thread to discuss CL.

I have been observing it and will start to take some trades in it.

This is open to everyone. Please feel free to post ideas and trades.

OP's statement above. I really can't understand the discussion on fundamentals. It is what it is. We are here to trade and make money. News is for CNBC armchair QB's like Gartman who was bullish on CL but didn't have a position couple of days ago. By the time CL goes to $30 or to $90(-if it goes) it would've traded in probably $100's of zig zag patterns. Just this week alone we went from 50 to 54 and back to almost $50 for an $8 round trip. How much did you profit from it ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUy9MXzUrVo

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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:54 PM   #979 (permalink)
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Yeah, I like Gartman's comments too. According to his statements he had probably been short crude since Jan 2009 all the way thru 2014 highs... and then went long it...

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Old April 8th, 2015, 04:55 PM   #980 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I did not need to read that report to trade but if it was helpful keep them coming. More post, more analysis and more execution can only help.

I keep shutting off subscribing to this thread because my email inbox is flooded with notices of new posts (trades).

So then when fundamental info/analysis is posted I miss it. I don't have time to wade through posts that aren't useful to my trading. But I do need to know new fundamental analysis information.

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